Chinese Economics Thread

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
I don't follow their work too closely so I don't know. One thing I will also state is that GS (and most of these bulge firms) has a number of teams and there is no really one house view. Their Investment Strategy Group published a 100+ page report that has all the bearish arguments people have on China and firmly argues why they believe China has already stuck the middle income trap. The file is too large to share but I'll attach the title page:

View attachment 107319

And this is my initial point - treat the work of people as discrete individuals/arguments and not associate with their employer. What if Gordon Chang and Justin Lin were both hired by Goldman tomorrow?
This is not toward you, but if their number is 5.5% despite having bearish attitude, then I may as well say 7% if I am mildly optimistic. I would have bumped my guess from 6%+ to 6.5%+ if I had benefit of hindsight. 8% is still very unlikely but it is looking less stupid now.
 

luosifen

Senior Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

2023-02-15 08:34:50China Daily Editor : Li Yan
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


pic1-40972318.jpeg

A passenger checks her phone beside a poster promoting Genshin Impact, a Chinese game, at a subway station in Beijing. (CHINA DAILY)
Report finds more developers seeking entry into developed, emerging markets
Expanding business in overseas markets is becoming a strategic trend for more Chinese game developers, although overseas sales of the country's self-developed games declined last year, according to an industry insider.
"Chinese game enterprises have actively promoted their businesses overseas, facing fierce competition from their international counterparts," said Zhang Yijun, vice-chairman of the China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association.
According to a report released at the China Game Industry Annual Conference in Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong province, on Tuesday, Chinese game developers' businesses were largely affected by the global COVID-19 pandemic in 2022.
"Some companies had to reduce investment in gaming research and development, with the entire industry entering a stage of financial and business pressure," said Zhang.
Trade barriers, together with relatively underdeveloped mobile internet technologies in some countries and regions, have also affected Chinese game enterprises' overseas business expansion, Zhang said.
Sales of Chinese self-developed games in overseas markets were down 3.7 percent year-on-year to $17.34 billion last year, with the United States, Japan and South Korea still being the major target markets, according to the report.
"In addition to major markets, the proportion of Chinese games sales in other countries and regions also increased significantly, indicating that Chinese game developers are expanding their businesses in emerging markets," he said.
The overseas sales decline rate was much lower than that of the domestic market, which was down 13.07 percent year-on-year to 222.38 billion yuan ($32.62 billion) in 2022, according to the report.
The global game market was also down by 6.96 percent to about 1.11 trillion yuan in 2022, it said.
"Exports of more self-developed games with high-quality content, as a market choice for more game developers in the near future, will help greatly promote Chinese culture in the overseas market," he said.
Sources with the China Audio-Video and Digital Publishing Association indicated that the domestic game market has developed rapidly in the past decade, with actual sales revenue increasing from 60.2 billion yuan in 2012 to 296.5 billion yuan in 2022.
The number of game players and developers in the domestic market also increased to 666 million and more than 390,000, respectively, according to the association.
Additionally, actual overseas sales increased 30-fold from $587 million in 2012 to $18 billion last year, with products expanded to North America, Europe and emerging markets related to the Belt and Road Initiative, according to the association.
Currently, 64 out of the top 80 most popular mobile games in the market have developed distinctive Chinese cultural elements and up to 68 percent of overseas game users have widely accepted games that contain Chinese culture, according to the report.
Guo Weiwei, chief executive officer of Xishanju, a game developer based in Zhuhai, Guangdong province, said Chinese games, as a symbolic cultural carrier, have developed great influence among users at home and abroad over the past few years.
"Building games with high-quality content based on Chinese culture, as a way of telling Chinese stories, has become one of the guidelines for game production and creation," said Guo.
Citing the Cantonese opera Fighting for the Great Tang Empire, which is based on Xishanju's popular electronic game Jianwang III, Guo said the company would focus on developing self-innovated games highly integrated with Chinese culture.
Xishanju, which was established in 1995, entered the Southeast Asia market in 2003, with the number of active daily users in Vietnam reaching 200,000, according to Guo.
After opening its research studio in the United States, which helps the company to learn cutting-edge gaming technologies, Xishanju also plans to export its games to the North American and European markets, Guo said.
 

Topazchen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. Very pessimistic article on the economic consequences of China's demographic troubles. While it will no doubt be challenging for China, I am doubtful about some of the article's statements, like claiming that China will barely see individual worker productivity growth, or that China is "unlikely to overtake the economy of the US or the EU" (despite the fact that the latter already happened).

In my opinion, China still has 2-3 decades of decent demographics left. Articles emphasizing the burden of retirees often forget the short-term benefits of a low TFR: less money/productivity being "wasted" (as expressed in short-term GDP numbers) on childcare. China's low GDP per capita should also allow for more profitable avenues for investment and growth for the near term, meaning that one can continue to expect Chinese growth outpacing that of developed economies.
Let's hope that the government will have the same zeal and energy in trying to boost birth rates as it had in enforcing the one child policy .
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
The problem with Western think-pieces on "demographics means China is doomed" is that they ignore quality. If quantity was the only thing that matter, then why is Nigeria or Pakistan basket cases? Both have very young populations with high birth rates.

Steve Hsu has a much better take:

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

mossen

Junior Member
Registered Member
Their Investment Strategy Group published a 100+ page report that has all the bearish arguments people have on China and firmly argues why they believe China has already stuck the middle income trap.
According to the World Bank, the threshold for high-income is about ~13K USD per capita.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The World Bank uses a 3-year smoothed GNI at nominal rates (not constant currency, no PPP). Using the same method, China reached about 12K in 2021 already.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In other words, China will enter the "high-income" club as defined by the World Bank by 2025 at the latest. So the discussion of China being stuck in the "middle-income trap" is already passé but apparently the folks at Goldman Sachs didn't get the memo.
 

Lethe

Captain
In my opinion, China still has 2-3 decades of decent demographics left. Articles emphasizing the burden of retirees often forget the short-term benefits of a low TFR: less money/productivity being "wasted" (as expressed in short-term GDP numbers) on childcare. China's low GDP per capita should also allow for more profitable avenues for investment and growth for the near term, meaning that one can continue to expect Chinese growth outpacing that of developed economies.

This was the point of the Total Dependency Ratio chart that I created a few months back: children are not in and of themselves "productive assets", we tolerate them only because they will eventually turn into adults (and maybe some other touchy-feely reasons too). China's total dependency ratio will not surpass that of the USA for another thirty years. It is true that after that the outlook is rather grim, but from what will hopefully be a much more secure base. The point is that increasing demographic challenges will not in and of themselves derail China's ascent in coming decades to commanding social, economic, technological and military heights.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is not toward you, but if their number is 5.5% despite having bearish attitude, then I may as well say 7% if I am mildly optimistic. I would have bumped my guess from 6%+ to 6.5%+ if I had benefit of hindsight. 8% is still very unlikely but it is looking less stupid now.

According to the World Bank, the threshold for high-income is about ~13K USD per capita.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The World Bank uses a 3-year smoothed GNI at nominal rates (not constant currency, no PPP). Using the same method, China reached about 12K in 2021 already.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In other words, China will enter the "high-income" club as defined by the World Bank by 2025 at the latest. So the discussion of China being stuck in the "middle-income trap" is already passé but apparently the folks at Goldman Sachs didn't get the memo.

Let me repeat my point - Goldman Sachs has 48500 employees as of Dec 31, 2022. Each and every one of them can, may, and likely do have a slightly differing opinion on China. Some are louder than others, but that doesn't mean they are more accurate.

The 'folks at Goldman Sachs' who wrote the report suggesting China is stuck in the middle income trap are not the 'folks at Goldman Sachs' who believes Q4 2023 GDP will be 6.5% than Q4 2022 GDP. These people all work at Goldman, but they are not legislated or mandated to have the same opinion by Goldman Sachs.

If you are unable to delineate who are the useful voices that offer signal vs noise - saying "Goldman says x" is analytically weak and thoroughly unconvincing.

Also, it is useful to actually assess the alternative competing hypothesis in analyzing information to not confirmation bias your way to failure. (The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richard Heuer is a book I'd recommend everyone to read. I'm sure @Patchwork_Chimera can attest how important it is in terms of analytical rigor)

Put another way that folks on this forum would understand - Minnie Chan is useless, but other reporters at SCMP offer insights. We do not say "SCMP says..." when laugh at Minnie Chan - why should we do the same for Goldman Sachs (or any other organization for that matter)?
 

alfreddango

Junior Member
Registered Member
Whatever happened to muh aUtHoRiTaRiAn China. I thought protests were banned in China? ;)

Posting fake news about the US is a better use of your time. Most of us on this forum know Chinese and can read Chinese sources.
not trying to be a smartass, just trying to know more.
Is the news not accurate? is the wsj making it seem bigger than it actually is?
 
Top