Which means that China will free to retaliate with Apple bans later. Why let Apple make so much money off Chinese market when they don't bring benefits? Either ban or require the iPhones sold in China to use YMTC memory, etc.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
@manqiangrexue your chew toy is back.
GDP is the total amount of goods and services produced in a country in a set time period. Full-year GDP is therefore A1+B1+C1+D1 or A2+B2+C2+D2. Change in Q1-Q3 GDP would be the sum of output in A2+B2+C2 divided by the sum of output in A1+B2+C1 subtracted by 1.
China reports headline GDP growth (the one that is used by the NBS and copied by media outlets) is going to be A2/A1, B2/B1, C2/C1 or D2/D1 with requisite seasonal adjustments depending on what quarter it is in.
The United States reports headline GDP growth (the one used by the BEA and copied by media outlets) as a seasonally annualized rate so it will either be (B1/A1)^4 - 1, (C1/B1)^4-1, (D1/C1)^4-1, etc. This similarly applies to the amount of GDP provided by the BEA, the BEA takes the total amount produced in any given quarter and multiplies it by 4 to annualize GDP. Therefore, to figure out how much the US produced in Q1+Q2+Q3, you would have to divide individual quarter numbers by 4 and add them together; while for China you would simply add the three together (since China does not annualize). You would not use annualized 4Q22 GDP as a reference point to compare Q1-Q3 GDP because it is excluded in both; in any case, US 2022 GDP would be the sum of 1Q+2Q+3Q+4Q, not just 4Q.
The US grew at 2.4% in 1Q-3Q GDP in 2022 compared to 2021; China grew at 3%.
supercat
Major
It doesn't matter much at this point. Chinese workers can't do assembling works for foreign companies forever. They need to move up the value chain anyway.
What's happening with the steep drop in demand? Isn't this a harbinger of global recession?
The numbers look a little bit different from projections by financial institutions.
Wait until Xi's visit to Saudi Arabia and the Arab-China Summit.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Ugh... it's fun when I'm bored at work but it's annoying on the weekends. Could you guys take out the trash Friday afternoon to Sunday if it shows up?
It does not matter how China reports or how the US reports; it matters that you get your data from the same place and that they are comparable, which is what I did. What I did NOT do is compare a different metric between the US and China. I compared China vs US year-to-year growth for full years 2019-2021. That's done and history; you don't have anything against that. Then, when we don't have a full year, we just want to see how the first 3 quarters went, we don't use annual numbers for that; we use quarterly. There is no such thing as a year-to-year comparison of just 3 quarters; that's why the quarterly measure exists. Taking all prior years as history and already compared, we use quarterly data in 2022, for both China and the US. For quarterly data, China goes 1.016x0.973x1.039=1.027 which is 2.7% and the US goes at 0.984x0.994x1.026=1.0035, which is 0.35%.
Those are directly comparable; there is no question about that. Do you think they are not?
Your entire challenge is to spin this chart from Q4 2021 to Q3 2022 to look like there is growth when the line itself is a dip and return, flat in effect. The only way you can attempt that is to compare regular GDP performance from early 2022 to recovery performance in 2021 as the US was just stumbling up from getting cratered in 2020. Q4 2021 is when that period ended and from then to now, this is America's current situation of stagnation (actually stagflation but that's a different point). The real situation is obvious: China posted clear growth from Q4 2021 to Q3 2022 and the US did not.
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This article was pushed to just about any investment-related Reddit sub. Smells like a concerted campaign.
LOL. Sleepy you realize that demand collapse is from the USA and that is a very strong sign of recession, right?
Their calculation is quite funny too. They took the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion as the base for US-EU trade but they used the summer peak for China. If we take the summer peak as the base for US-EU trade too, then US-EU trade has declined by 13% too.
CNBC and you should troll better. Your current level is easy to spot unless your IQ is lower than your shoe size number.
Continued weakness in China's economic activity - both the NBS and Caixin PMI are all deeply negative