manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Yeah no. Over 2,600 deaths a week in the US... a country with a fourth the population of China.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
- Start date
its up to Xi now, covid is pretty much endemic now, so eventually ppl just have to live with it. i dont expect china gonna lock itself in forever.
LOL I hope they do so people like you would keep whining to the high heavens with your constant nonsense. But for real though, the government will continue to adopt their approach depending on the situation on the ground and what the real experts are saying, most especially what the Chinese people want and expect for the government to do.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Not really; he's not Trump. He actually listens to his experts.
Thanks, Western countries
Viruses tend to evolve to become milder and milder. In time, COVID could be like the common cold, but that time is not now.
Not forever, but dynamic zero COVID means exactly that. It is dynamic and will depend on live input. 2,600+ deaths a week in a population a quarter that of China's means it's not time to open up. When deaths become rare and basically only in the co-morbid, then China will dynamically make changes to its policy.
PiSigma
"the engineer"
1 million+ dead Americans is a price I'm willing to pay. I'm will to pay 100x of that actually.
As this top geopolitics expert in China says, he is making a guesstimate that China will open up in 2Q or 3Q 2023. I think it's quite reasonable. In line with my own predictions. 2Q marks the end of flu season. As we all know, SMEs all across China are in a very difficult time now, and bankruptcies are really high. As the expert says, about 200 to 300 million working class Chinese are slowly running out of savings, and many middle class Chinese are returning back to the working class ie lower class. Of course saving about 50 million people who would have died otherwise this year is worth it for the long term.
You need to read carefully to see where the tea leaves are aligned.
Generally, if we triangulate this with the so-called leak document discussing a re-opening in March ie end of flu season, and top finance firms like Nomura saying all options are open after March 2023, we can see where the trend lies. The reason we can't quite discredit the leaked document is because the CPC is holding a series of key meetings over the next 4 months to discuss how to implement the next few years' goals, and this would include a possible opening up.
So even though health officials are stressing COVID zero, they are just health officials and the top leadership has the ability to adjust this course. Remember the time - sorry I'm too lazy to pull out the article - when China's leadership said COVID policy should not entirely be based on health concerns but also political sustainability and the need to keep the Chinese population satisfied.
COVID zero is the right policy in the near-term, but the idea that it is a long term plan is too rigid, inflexible, and Xi himself knows that when he recently stressed continuing to open up China's economy.
Don't expect any changes until the end of this flu season. As they say now, now is the most painful and difficult period in China's COVID struggle, with many businesses entering the red line. Safe to say, China's top leadership aren't living in ivory towers and will adjust based on realities.
On a personal observational level, Singapore has opened up to people flying into the country left right and centre without any need for quarantine or isolation, without any serious health flare-ups, since the middle of 2022, and keeping its economy relatively strong, so I think Chinese officials can look to Singapore just like Deng Xiaoping used to look to Singapore. Although I would say in other areas Singapore is quite a shitty, stressful, and neoimperialistic country. Lol.
Last edited:
i doubt it will get milder like the flu/cold anytime soon at least not within a year. if another 3, 5 years of zero covid, thats gonna be rough on both ppl and economy
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
A year's really not a long time at all.
Not as rough as being dead though.
Better dead than red, as the old joke went.
That was the prevailing mood in some areas of the world.