Chinese Economics Thread

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is no significant technical and resource hurdle that China cannot come up with a 6-axis articulated robot arm like the FANUC M-20iD/25 within a year. Besides, chances of embargo of this type of robots by Japan is fairly low for economics and low technology entry barrier (for China) reasons.

China, in spite of her economic and industrial prowess, cannot replicate every single high tech imports. She should rightly put her resources in the other high priority and critical ones.

No shame in using foreign imports for her higher value added manufacturing. Besides, we don't know if the FANUS robot in the video was purchased years ago and there are already domestic equivalents.
1) The question to ask is not whether "China can come up with something" but instead "Can Chinese companies/workers profit from coming up with something". Higher income = higher GDP = higher purchase power = higher prosperity. Lack of commercialization = lack of high income jobs. Simple as that. Go read "How Asia Works" by Joe Studwell. It will do wonders for your lack of understanding of economic development.

2) If it was as simple to commercialize as you make it in point #1, then the State has zero imperative/need to 'put her resources' in this field - commercialization isn't something the State has to worry about. Capital is quite good at making money out of mature technologies. Go look at Wuxi Biologics or Hengli Hydraulics or Mindray as successful examples of domestic high end manufacturing.

3) Never did I say anything regarding 'shame' - I am stating a fact that domestication of industrial robots = more high paying jobs domestically. If there were domestic equivalents, they are clearly not being used in this specific application. The critical question is 'why not'. How can the robot be 'purchased years ago' if, as the video clearly states, this was the *first day* of the inspection station being operational? If you do a quick Google search of the M-20iD/25, you will find that it first was announced at EMO 2019 in Hannover. Perhaps, in your own universe, robots only debuted in late 2019 can be purchased 'years ago'.

Seeking truth from facts require asking tough questions - and not ostrich-head-in-the-sand about your precious pride.
 

daifo

Major
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A leaked internal memo by Ren Zhengfei, founder of Huawei Technologies Co., has gone viral on China’s social media, as his bleak outlook of the global economy strikes a chord in the country’s business and technology sectors.
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, which was first reported by Chinese media outlet Yicai on Tuesday, painted a gloomy picture of a world heading into economic recession. It called for employees to focus on the company’s survival and give up on wishful thinking.


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9dashline

Captain
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A leaked internal memo by Ren Zhengfei, founder of Huawei Technologies Co., has gone viral on China’s social media, as his bleak outlook of the global economy strikes a chord in the country’s business and technology sectors.
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, which was first reported by Chinese media outlet Yicai on Tuesday, painted a gloomy picture of a world heading into economic recession. It called for employees to focus on the company’s survival and give up on wishful thinking.


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I emailed him a while back sent him my EROEI info, hope Xi read it too...

In the negative-sum post-peak world, China must proactively decouple from US as soon as possible, it can ill afford to profit only on the margins of US/Western consumption in exchange for worthless weaponized dollars of the hegemon...

Its past time for the rull pull... the point of inflection has been crossed and likely happened in 2019
 
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wxw456

New Member
Registered Member
...
  • Second claim is that "the 1998 cohort (age 22) in China only has a STEM graduation rate of 8.76%."
    • This is based on the claim 1.7 million STEM degrees were issued in China in 2020 and that the cohort population is 19.4 million.
      • The China STEM degree source is likely this:
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    • The problem is that the cohort population data is wrong. The 2020 NBS data lists 15,249,809 as the age 22 cohort size.
    • This gives a 11.15% rate for STEM degrees. Which is practically similar to the 11.4% rate claimed for the US.
Note that I think the above methodology used is actually bad. It makes a lot of poor assumptions:
  • All degrees only take 4 years to complete. (Not true)
  • Everyone completes their degrees in 4 years. (Not true) Anybody with life experience knows that many people take longer or shorter depending on their circumstanes, life goals and pace.
  • Everyone starts at age 18 and finishes at age 22. Same problem as the previous point.
 

JebKerman

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Inspection robot made by FANUC.

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Until we see Estun or hell, even KUKA robots all over the place; higher value added manufacturing (and high income jobs) remains a work in progress.

Things like robots and PLCs have so many suppliers and alternatives it really doesn't matter. If you want to build a factory quickly it's more important to choose based on lead time, which system your integrator is used to, and how much discount you can get. KUKA is owned by Mideas now anyway.

The key parts of a factory is not the hardware, lots of people have enough money to buy 30 robots, very few has the knowledge to put together a line of 30 robots that makes a car.

Edit: Also, you noticed only the robot, but the actual key piece of expensive equipment in the video is the Leica laser tracker doing the scanning
 
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MortyandRick

Senior Member
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A leaked internal memo by Ren Zhengfei, founder of Huawei Technologies Co., has gone viral on China’s social media, as his bleak outlook of the global economy strikes a chord in the country’s business and technology sectors.
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, which was first reported by Chinese media outlet Yicai on Tuesday, painted a gloomy picture of a world heading into economic recession. It called for employees to focus on the company’s survival and give up on wishful thinking.


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I find this scmp article disingenuous. Ren's memo was about the global down turn economy but the article acknowledges that text but then basically focuses on the Chinese economy weaknesses. What about the global economy? It doest mention Europe or USA or other parts of the world, just take the opportunity to criticize chinas covid strategy.

Overall useless article. I find scmp does a lot of this stuff. Goes out of their way to criticize China and put a spot light on the negatives.
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
Korea definitely punching above its weight but how can Japan be so low? Is there something wrong with this data?

Not that surprising, their previous president Moon implemented anti-Chaebol policies and promoted some Silicon-valley-like ecosystems, also US capital is pumping into SK to prop up their industries to hedge against China. While in Japan it's all about protecting zombie companies. Dealogic is usually pretty accurate.
 
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