Chinese Economics Thread

antiterror13

Brigadier
I don't put much stock into so called incompetent vs competent authoritarianism or democracy. At the end of the day Mao or Kim are human beings who can't physically carry out any of their policies and has to sleep sometime. Laws are just pieces of paper so his legal status didn't matter much. Lots of kings and presidents who fell victim to coups were legally supreme, didn't matter.

So why did Mao get to lead and in fact was able to extrajudicially purge Party elites with tons of legal power? Popular support. At the end of the day popular support is what truly matters, nothing else, because a leader that only has laws or the military to keep them in power don't last and their orders often never even leave the capital.

As for why all those things happened? Because popular support allowed them to. Why kill the sparrows? Because farmers hated them for eating grain. If Mao ordered them to free their pigs and cows, they wouldn't have done it. Why Cultural Revolution? Not solely because Mao ordered it, but because people actually did hate many of the bureaucrats. Why GLF? Because people actually believed it could work. If they didn't that would've been the end of Mao's rule.

In every country a leader is constrained by what is politically correct in that country, and what is PC isn't determined entirely by the leadership. They can shape what is PC very slowly with education and propaganda, but it is slow. They can't order the population to do anything that is outside what is PC or they will rebel, and the population listening is the only thing separating a leader from a joke.

Some population PC is conducive to economic development, some isn't. Deng took 10 years and gave his famous 1992 Shenzhen speech to change what is PC in China, which led to the economic boom in the 90s and beyond. The first 10 years actually saw minimal progress because it was laying the foundation for public support, and the population was extremely restless at the time. Remember 严打 and famously 6-4. It was because the population didn't see Deng's policy as PC, they didn't support it wholy, only when they saw the good end results in the 90s did they support it.

On the other hand PC in India isn't conducive to economic development because it is PC to bash China, hate foreign investors, lynch each other over caste/ethnicity/religion and demand outrageous conditions for investment (see India's shit show for military procurement). All Indian leaders are constrained by that PC hence neither Singh nor Modi could change India's fate.

What is "PC" ?
 

Strangelove

Colonel
Registered Member
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Global investment banks go long on Chinese assets amid global volatility, underpinning China's lead in new energy

Country seen as an investable equity safe haven amid intl woes

By GT staff reporters Published: Jul 08, 2022 09:57 PM


Stock market in Shenzhen Illustration: VCG

Illustration: VCG

An increasing number of global investment banks including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co have lately rooted for Chinese assets, seeing the country as an investable equity safe haven amid woes over a recession brewing in the US.

Behind Chinese assets' outperformance was an effective pro-growth push over recent months that has stabilized the economy and prompted a turnaround in investor sentiment, market watchers said, anticipating that Chinese assets will remain appealing to international investors.

Such a positive scenario bodes well for listed firms, notably those in the new energy sector, seeking to bankroll their expansion, thereby consolidating the country's leadership in clean energy, analysts reckoned.

Since last January, Asia, not including China, has posted cumulative foreign capital outflows of $111 billion, outnumbering the $93 billion logged during the global financial crisis. But China has seen an improvement in capital inflows, Goldman Sachs said in a research note sent to the Global Times.

In June, the Asian market excluding China recorded $21 billion in capital outflow, while the A-share market tallied $11 billion in capital inflows through the northbound leg of the stock linkups between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong bourses.

Market concerns over a US economic recession or a big market correction have had an enormous impact on capital flows, especially in North Asia, while A shares and the equity market in ASEAN members are shown to be more prudent, the US investment bank wrote, recommending increased stakes in China's A shares.

"If investors are looking at challenges in all the markets, China really stands out as something that offers a resilient or safe haven from many of those risks," Mixo Das, Asia equity strategist at JPMorgan, told a television interview on Bloomberg in late June.

More famed names on Wall Street have joined the ranks in ramping up bets on Chinese assets, the Securities Times reported on Friday, citing Citi, UBS, Bank of America Securities and DBS.

Citi upgraded Chinese shares as outperforming, while Bank of America Securities suggested that short-term corrections in Chinese shares can be seen as a buying opportunity. UBS, for its part, estimated that Chinese shares would continue to outperform the global equity market over the next few months.

The stability of the yuan since late May that has seen the Chinese currency only weakening slightly against the US dollar, while the euro, sterling and yen were struggling with a dive versus the dollar, also speaks volumes about the international community's optimism over Chinese assets.

Alongside the conspicuous upturn in market sentiment was a raft of pro-growth measures ranging from ramped-up infrastructure investment to a robust push for car purchases that have propped up the economy in recent months, analysts said, betting on the turnaround versus a downtrend in other major markets to underpin a continued outperformance in Chinese assets.

Chinese shares have stood out as a silver lining in an otherwise poorly performing market at large, and the country will remain alluring for global investors even though the US Federal Reserve's continued reduction of its balance sheet has tended to roil the global market, Raymond Deng, investment strategist CIO of consumer investment and insurance products at DBS Bank, told the Global Times on Friday.

A shares still boast reasonably low price-to-earnings ratios, making the case for a continued upturn. This, adding to decent dividends paid especially by major listed banks, renders A shares a much better buyable option when compared with US stocks, Deng said.

He cited US business earnings that are under pressure from a downtrend in the US economy as an incentive for increased interest in Chinese assets.

This year could be a turning point for global investors seeking safe haven assets amid varied uncertainties, Deng commented, considering Chinese shares to be among the top preferred choices.

That suggests buying opportunities in Chinese financials and infrastructure shares, the strategist continued.

The Chinese market has largely remained stable despite the fallout of domestic Omicron flare-ups and trading activity in the market has stayed robust, Dong Shaopeng, an expert advisor for the China Securities Regulatory Commission, told the Global Times on Friday, describing the country as "the best destination for investment."

With the country's epidemic prevention and control trends stabilizing, investment, trade and factory activities are in an evident recovery mode, Dong said, stressing that new-energy vehicles, in particular, have turned out to be a draw for investors.

Construction site of the Yangtze River crossing pathway project for the new 500-kilovolt transmission line in East China's Jiangsu Province on June 1, 2022. Running from Fengcheng to Meili, the line will further support the integration of energy and electricity in the Yangtze River Delta. Photo: cnsphoto

Construction site of the Yangtze River crossing pathway project for the new 500-kilovolt transmission line in East China's Jiangsu Province on June 1, 2022. Running from Fengcheng to Meili, the line will further support the integration of energy and electricity in the Yangtze River Delta. Photo: cnsphoto

Furthermore, solar power, energy storage and transmission among renewables are top on the list for those exploring opportunities in the Chinese market, he went on to say.

Such conspicuous preferences for listed firms in the broad renewable sector are envisioned as boosting these businesses' financial profiles and consequently cementing China's leadership in the global marketplace for clean energy.

A host of new energy carmaker and clean energy firms have staged an impressive rally in the A-share market since late April, with some of them seeing shares more than double over the period.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
Indeed, China is extremely dominant in solar power. Could the Middle Kingdom be preparing for a massive switch to solar energy?

There is huge potential in solar, thousands of times greater than the current global energy consumption**. The consumption figure includes every energy source: oil, coal, nuclear, hydro -- everything. And the sun pours down thousands of times more than that.

So I am fairly optimistic about China's future. And the world's energy future may depend on how well China overcomes the US's resistance to renewables.

-----

** A simple calculation: the sun pours onto Earth thousands of times more power than all of human civilization currently uses.

First,
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, the world uses about 10,000 Mtoe of energy per year. This includes all energy sources: coal, oil, hydro, nuclear, etc. One Mtoe is a million tons of oil equivalent, or about 42 gigajoules. Thus 10,000 Mtoe/year translates to 13e12 W = 13 terawatts of power.

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is 3.8e26 watts. At the Earth's orbit, the radiated power is spread more or less evenly over a sphere of radius 150 million km. This sphere's surface area is 4 * pi * (150 million km)^2 = 2.8e23 m. Thus the Earth gets roughly 1300 watts per square meter.

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, the Earth's albedo is 0.30, which means Earth reflects 30% of the sun's radiation back to space. This leaves 1300 W * (1 - 0.30) = 910 watts per square meter for us Earthlings.

The Earth's radius = 6400 km, which means the planet's cross section is 2 * pi * (6400 km)^2 = 2.6e14 m^2.

Thus 910 W/m^2 * 2.6e14 m^2 = 236,000 terawatts of solar energy is available.

This is 236e3 TW / 13 TW = 18,000 times more power than all of humanity is currently using. I don't know how much of this we can actually capture, but I think it's safe to say that solar energy is thousands of times greater than we currently use.

Imagine if China had banned the solar cells to the USA or EU as the solar cells are used to oppress people and support military :rolleyes:
 

Nutrient

Junior Member
Registered Member
One Mtoe is a million tons of oil equivalent, or about 42 gigajoules.

A slight erratum: an Mtoe is 42 Petajoules, not Gigajoules as I stated. Fortunately, this mistake does not affect my conclusion, as I used the correct numeric value of 42e15 J.

The solar energy on Earth, that's not reflected back to space, is really eighteen thousand times more than all the energy the world is currently using.
 
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badoc

Junior Member
Registered Member
Thanks, perhaps going forward put the definition from the start in the post, not everyone as "knowledgeable" as you are :rolleyes: , especially uncommon ones

Don't assume when you know some abbreviation out of the blue that everyone would know that as well :)
For any acronym that you don't know.
e.g. PC
Google " pc meaning "
Choose the definition to be the most likely fit.
.
 

Faustshadowdancer

New Member
Registered Member
Thanks, perhaps going forward put the definition from the start in the post, not everyone as "knowledgeable" as you are :rolleyes: , especially uncommon ones

Don't assume when you know some abbreviation out of the blue that everyone would know that as well :)
Am I missing something? That seems oddly aggressive when I'm not the one you originally quoted.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Thanks, perhaps going forward put the definition from the start in the post, not everyone as "knowledgeable" as you are :rolleyes: , especially uncommon ones

Don't assume when you know some abbreviation out of the blue that everyone would know that as well :)
There's no need to be passive aggressive with your response since it's clear as daylight that he gave you an honest to goodness definition. No need for inference of malice or ill intent that frankly wasn't there to begin with. Besides, what else could P.C. possibly means in the context of "political discussion" other than Politically Correct.

If however, my own take on your response is also a misunderstanding, let me take this opportunity to apologize in advance, if not, then let's not be a prick to one another for no good reason.
 
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