Chinese Economics Thread

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China must search for effective ways to navigate the myriad of risks associated with its overseas investments, especially in high conflict areas of Asia and Africa.

In recent years, Chinese businesses have gained a foothold in Asian and African countries but caused friction there. Some Chinese companies have been blamed for paying no heed to the local environment and stealing local jobs.

China's traditional means of diplomacy has aided China's overseas investments over the past few years, but now political relations have become an impediment to further progress in some cases. Many of China's "old friends" have been caught up in the contagious political tumult that has swept through much of Africa and the Middle East.

On Sept. 30, 2011, Myanmar's government ordered a suspension of a hydroelectric power project aided by China in a concession to public worries about its possible environmental impact. The suspension was a blow and also a warning to China, who had established good rapport with the Myanmar government.

As another case in point, China has achieved success in deals in Angola, but in recent years, some Angolans have begun to attack the business practices of Chinese firms, saying the ventures shunned local laws or fell short of the demands by the local people.

Chinese companies' overreliance on the support of Chinese government and local authorities in making overseas investments has also fueled anti-Chinese sentiment among locals.

Because of excessive reliance on the support of local governments of host countries, Chinese companies lack a through understanding of the risks existing in the regions, which can often lead to the mishandling of situations on the ground.

At the same time Chinese investors have complained about difficulties with local groups, issues have also arisen regarding safe working conditions for Chinese workers stationed abroad.

"Chinese living or working in those conflicting regions complained that the Chinese government balked at playing a major role in safeguarding overseas Chinese companies and their workers in those conflicting regions," said Jiang Heng, a deputy researcher of Chinese Academy of International Trend and Economic Cooperation.

Wang Zhile, director general of the Beijing New Century Academy on Transnational Corporations, told reporters at the Transnational Corporations China Forum in Beijing that if Chinese investors want to be understood, they also need to understand their foreign counterparts.

"Overseas investment is not economic colonization, nor cultural colonization. It's not about buying or conquering, but rather the establishment of a common interest community and the realization of mutual development under the same vision," Wang said. "China really needs to rethink and reshape its approaches in the process of fulfilling its investment aspirations."
 

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China will import crude oil from Iran based on its demand and won't be influenced by the edicts of "some country," the former head of China's National Energy Administration said Sunday.


Speaking at the 2012 Boao Forum in China, Zhang Guobao said recent U.S. and European Union sanctions against importing crude from Iran don't include "halting normal trade."

A U.S. appeal earlier this year for countries to reduce crude imports from Iran has pushed up global crude prices, which has been harmful to the global economy, Zhang added. Higher oil prices combined with slower economic growth will also hurt oil demand, he said. Still, global oil prices probably won't rise much, he added.

Zhang said the release of strategic oil reserves by countries such as the U.S. wouldn't help keep crude prices in check because "releasing inventory only can affect prices for a short time."

Separately, Fu Chengyu, chairman of China Petroleum and Chemical Corp.known as Sinopec Corp., said oil sanctions against Iran will push prices higher, which is bad for the global economic recovery.

Fu added that U.S. President Barack Obama has asked the world to release their strategic oil stockpiles, which has clearly showed the impact and pressures caused by the sanctions.

The Obama administration said last week that it would initiate tougher sanctions against Iran, saying a cutoff of Iranian oil wouldn't significantly harm world markets. The move follows tighter sanctions it signed into law earlier this year targeting financial institutions doing business with Iran's central bank.

The U.S. has exempted almost a dozen countries from sanctions that have demonstrated that they have halted or substantially cut back their imports of Iranian oil. China, however, wasn't named on its list.
 

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Chinese conglomerates are swooping on distressed US companies in record numbers and often paying twice their domestic value.
The People’s Republic is using private companies to buy troubled US assets, often out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy, targeting brand names and intellectual property in eight key sectors: technology, cars, energy, metals, mining, agriculture, biotech and aerospace.

The Chinese are still smarting from a very public bruising the US delivered seven years ago when the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation was forced to withdraw its $18.5bn bid for US oil giant Unocal. The oil bid was the largest foreign acquisition attempted by a Chinese company and created a political furore in the US Congress.

The latest assault, to spend some of the $3.2 trillion the country has in foreign reserves, is often channelled through private companies which are happy to pay a higher multiple – five or six times earnings – than US rivals. Americans would consider this too expensive but they look cheap by comparison with a similar Chinese company valued at between 10 and 12 times earnings.

Between 2008 and last year, the Chinese spent almost $12bn on 159 US deals. Latest figures for this year show they have already spent $3bn on 14 acquisitions.

A report last month from Morgan Joseph TriArtisan, a US investment bank for middle-market companies, said: “…we’ve seen a substantial increase in activity from the east. Chinese investors have represented potential investors of corporate assets in nearly a quarter of in-court transactions in which we were involved during 2011.”

The report said the Chinese government is reluctant to invest directly in the west and prefers to use its influence on companies that are closely linked to the state as they buy technologies or intellectual property that add value in the Chinese manufacturing process.

David Miller, a managing director in the restructuring group at Australian bank Macquarie, said: “This [Chinese buying of distressed US companies] is a fairly new phenomenon that has only happened over the last two years.”

But he expects Chinese acquisitions of distressed companies to increase around the globe, although in some jurisdictions the bankruptcy procedure may be more complicated than in the US.


Miller said: “One common theme that will emerge is that Chinese buyers want technology, brand names or intellectual property that they can use in their home markets.”

Last year, investment firm China Private Equity Investment Holdings and Hong Kong’s Max Era Properties acquired the intellectual property of Evergreen Solar after the US solar panel manufacturer filed for bankruptcy. They were not interested in the manufacturing facilities.

Consultancy Rhodium Group said in a report in December: “China’s renewable energy industry is facing serious overcapacity, shrinking profits and trade frictions. Going abroad allows firms to diversify risks, tap new markets and adjust their business models to cope with structural adjustment at home.”

Chinese companies usually pay cash, giving them an advantage in a US bankruptcy court. Miller said: “They are asset buyers who take a long-term strategic view. They may be willing to pay a higher valuation than US buyers because the growth potential in their home market is so much greater.”

Last May, an unidentified Chinese investor saved an office tower in Manhattan from foreclosure by putting in $265m of equity and debt.

In 2010 Aviation Industry Corp of China’s automotive arm, Avic Auto, and Beijing E-town International Investment and Development, an investment fund for the city of Beijing, acquired Nexteer Automotive a loss-making parts manufacturer in Saginaw, Michigan, from General Motors. Zhao Guibin, chairman of Avic Auto, told the Wall Street Journal in an interview two months ago that the firm was looking for more acquisitions: “If there is a good opportunity we will consider a second acquisition and more.”


James Hadfield, vice-president in the financial restructuring group at Morgan Joseph, said the Chinese government has accumulated $3.2 trillion in foreign reserves by keeping the yuan cheap against the US dollar to boost exports. These reserves are invested in US Treasuries which are paying low interest and the government wants to transform the economy from relying on low-cost workers to one based on higher value manufacturing and intellectual property.

Chinese entrepreneurs also want to diversify their wealth by placing money overseas, despite China’s strict guidelines on foreign investments.

China’s US expansion could raise security concerns for the US authorities. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, an inter-agency government panel chaired by the Treasury Secretary, has the right to block or set conditions on an overseas acquisition if it is harmful to US national security. The CFIUS may raise concerns if foreign acquirers are state-owned or if a technology could boost a foreign military power.

Hadfield said that although Chinese buyers might need CFIUS approval this has not slowed down any deals. He cited Cirrus Industries, a US light aircraft manufacturer, in which the buyer, Aviation Industry Corp of China, received CFIUS approval in less than three months instead of the more typical six to nine months. Hadfield said: “CFIUS approval has not been an impediment in any of the deals we have worked on and may be less of a hurdle in middle-market deals.”

US politicians are also supportive of Chinese investments which they say will help lift the US economy. When US Vice-President Joe Biden visited China last year, he said: “President Obama and I, we welcome, encourage and see nothing but positive benefit from direct investment in the US from Chinese businesses and Chinese entities. It means jobs.” Gary Locke, who became the US ambassador to China last year, has also stressed that the Obama administration encourages Chinese investments for US job creation and to boost exports.

Hadfield expects restructuring of US companies to continue in sectors such as print media, housing, aerospace and commercial jets despite the improving American economy. Bankers believe this will provide further opportunities for Chinese buyers.

It is a far cry from 20 years ago when the Japanese snapped up trophy properties in America and caused outcry when the Mitsubishi Group bought the Rockefeller Center in midtown Manhattan.
The difference is that the Japanese wanted tangible assets, the Chinese are more interested in intellectual assets.
 

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The outlook for China's real estate market remains sluggish this year, after Premier Wen Jiabao presented the government's resolution on the issue at the National People's Congress in March. Current restrictions on house-buying will not be eased in the short term, the resolution said.

As increased controls have been put in place, investment in commercial property has decreased visibly. Relevant industries such as steel, cement, home appliances and automobiles also slowed in the first two months of 2012. Likewise, in the last two months the growth of construction of new residential areas is at its lowest rate since 2009.

In terms of the effects of this downturn, there are two main questions: As a key part of fixed asset investment, will the current slump in the real estate market hold back development in other key sectors? And, more importantly, will the large scale construction of low-income housing started since last year would compensate for the reduction of private investment in the market?

For the first question, the answer seems quite clear. The growth in fixed asset investment in January and February is above market expectations, up 21 percent from the same period last year. Contrary to the investments on property and railway infrastructure, other components of fixed asset investment have maintained a rapid growth. This has ensured a 20-plus percent growth rate for the sector.

As for the second question, it's quite complicated. Statistics from Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development show that 4.3 million units of low-income housing had been basically built in 2011. This figure reached almost 30 percent of the total residential housing supplies in 2011. According to the government's plan, this year another 7 million units of low-income housing will be constructed. Adding with 5.7 million units started in 2011, there will be about 13 million units built in 2012, which accounts about one-third of all residential property being constructed.

To ensure the completion of low-income housing construction projects, the Chinese government has allocated 402.4 billion yuan (US$63.8 billion) for low-income housing in this year's fiscal budget, a 15.2 percent increase from last year. Commercial banks will inject large scale capital into the construction, under the guidance of relevant policies. Additionally, most of the 250 billion yuan (US$39.6 billion) in local treasury bonds will be spent on low-income housing construction. According to figures of the first two months, local government revenues grew 13.1 percent over the same period of last year. This indicates more financial support from the local governments.

The construction of low-income housing will be more widespread after fiscal expenditures have been implemented. Usually, an upsurge of construction appears in the second and third quarters. After this occurs, we will have a basic estimation on the status of the low-income housing construction this year and how it will influence the economy.

If 5 million housing units can be completed within this year, it will be a milestone for the property market. According to previous data, the annual completed commercial housing is about 7 to 8 million units. That means though the completion of commercial ones drop by 15 percent in 2012, the total supply of residential housing will still surpass 10 million, demonstrating a 20-30 percent year-on-year increase. If the average area of a low-income housing unit is at about 50-60 square meters, the total supplied area of low-income housing will be 250-300 million square meters. Even though the commercial area constructed decreased by 15 percent, the total area constructed can still rise by 10 percent.

This large amount of new construction on low income housing projects will influence the structure of Chinese property market. Meanwhile, such a construction scale shows that China's need for commodities is still very high. Thus, the demand slump which has been worrying some suppliers will not appear.

With regard to the price, the room for growth is getting smaller. The commercial housing storage grew by 60 percent and reached 169 million square meters by the end of 2011. In the next three years, there will be 28 million people migrating from rural areas to cities. The supply of low-income housing and commercial housing together will be 12 -14 million units. If a unit accommodates two people, we estimate that the supply and demand in the Chinese property market will be balanced on the whole by 2015. Purchasing restrictions may be end in future, which would further stimulate demand. But the implementation of property taxes will increase the cost of owning property.
 

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A great number of billionaires have emerged from China, but fostering the country's middle class should be a top priority in order to increase consumer spending, said Xiang Bing, founder and dean of the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business.

The number of Chinese billionaires may overtake the United States in the next five to 10 years, but the rise of middle class has been sluggish, Xiang said in an exclusive interview with China Daily before the start of the 2012 Boao Forum for Asia. He called on entrepreneurs to contribute to building the middle class.

"Companies will play a crucial role, though not an exclusive role, in developing a middle-class society," he said.

Most Chinese entrepreneurs remain ignorant of the benefits of the establishment of a solid middle class and, therefore, do not take measures to bring their employees into the fold of the business,
he said.

He cited Ren Zhengfei, founder of a leading Chinese telecom equipment provider Huawei Technologies, as a model to follow. Ren owns only 1.42 percent of the equity shares of the company, while the rest is held by employees.

Also, to tackle the challenge, the government should make adjustments to resource allocation. Currently, national wealth is unequally distributed among the population, Xiang said.

According to economists, the country's Gini coefficient is estimated to be as high as 0.52 in 2011, from 0.37 in 2007. The top 1 percent of affluent Chinese families hold 41.4 percent of the nation's wealth, he said, citing a World Bank 2010 report.

The issue of wealth inequality should be seriously dealt with and reforms should be made to promote long-term economic stability, he said.

The success of China's entrepreneurs has been largely attributed to low production costs, he said.
With the enforcement of stricter environmental rules and labor laws, the cost of Chinese products will increase accordingly, forcing businesses to increasingly rely on domestic middle-class consumers.

During the past 20 years, Xiang said he heard many multinational companies complain about China's business environment, despite that they have made significant profits in China.

Compared with local private enterprises, international companies have received preferential treatment in China, he said.

"Either you go and just complain, or you can sit down and do your homework. Those that figure out the different ways of doing business will survive and win in China," he said.

Market accessibility is critical to the future success of China's economy, Xiang added.

"China is as open today as during the Tang Dynasty (AD 618-907). The continuation of that is very important to a successful future for China," he said.
 

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China's recent slowdown in foreign direct investment (FDI) combined with its reduced economic growth targets raises questions as to whether the "China boom" is running out of steam. Despite such caricatures, this phenomenon marks an inevitable watershed in China's economic development - from quantity to quality and from basic manufacturing to growth into other areas like services.
 
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tphuang

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Escobar, there are hundreds of such articles online that we can all read just by simply using google news. Please try to add some comments to the articles you post. Other wise, they just create the effect of spamming. For example, you seem to try to make the case that China's economy is still doing well. Why not write something on that rather than just highlighting selected articles?
 

escobar

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Escobar, there are hundreds of such articles online that we can all read just by simply using google news.

Sure, but i try to post only key articles like the ones related to data like Monthly PMI, FDI, Inflation, Import-Export etc...

For example, you seem to try to make the case that China's economy is still doing well.

Only ignorant will say China's economy is still doing well.
Many of of my posts highlight the difficulties faced by china's economy.

Why not write something on that rather than just highlighting selected articles?

In recent years everyone "writes something" on china's economy. I prefer not to add.
 
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Business activities in China's non-manufacturing sector steadily recovered in March on rising market demands, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) said Tuesday.

The non-manufacturing sector's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a key economic indicator, rose 0.7 percentage points from February to 58 percent, the CFLP said in a statement.

A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.

Taking account of seasonal factors, the index increased for two months in a row since it dropped in January.

"Activities in the non-manufacturing sector was active on the back of rising market demands, and the sector maintained the momentum of sound growth," according to the statement.

The figure came two days after the CFLP posted China's manufacturing PMI at 53.1 percent in March, the fourth consecutive monthly growth and the highest level since March last year.

The federation's non-manufacturing PMI is based on a survey of about 1,200 companies in 20 industries including transport, real estate, retailing, catering and software.
 

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Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told a national audience on Tuesday that China's state-controlled banks are a "monopoly" that must be broken, in an unusually blunt appeal for a shake-up of the creaky financial system of the world's No. 2 economy."Let me be frank. Our banks earn profit too easily. Why? Because a small number of large banks have a monopoly," said Mr. Wen...
 
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