Chinese Economics Thread

zgx09t

Junior Member
Registered Member
Exactly.
Bottom 50 percent owns 2% and top 10% owns 75% of US family wealth as of 2013 per CBO.
It only gets worse from there on out.
Keeping it at this rate, the growing inequality is a perfect setup for Second coming of American Revolution, and yet some random bloke is fiddling over these unsustainable excesses day in day out.

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Suetham

Senior Member
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We had a debate on whether to use PPP or the exchange rate previously in the Future PLAN Orbat Thread below from 2 years ago. Additional reading on the rationale for PPP below as well.

Note the producer price index (for manufacturing output) should be understated by the PPP exchange rate.
In other words, PPP overestimates the cost of Chinese equipment and supplies. The Chinese military actually gets them even cheaper.

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Future Orbat Thread
Before I start answering, how can you catch old arguments about something, because I try to search for a word and I always end up not finding it. This would make my life a lot easier, I've already tried to view it in the forum feedback, but I couldn't find it. If you can help me, I appreciate it.

My comment was oriented to the civil economy to explain that there are problems in measuring PPP GDP, but in practical terms, it is still the best measure to assess the potential and development of a national economy, the PPP GDP per capita is still the best measure to explain the development of an economy.

For example, in a basket of products that is used to compose the PPP GDP, it may be that such country - say Saudi Arabia - does not have the same consumption ratio and weight with another country, say France, in this PPP GDP conversion , there will be measurement problems because products that have been placed in a basket for comparison can be applied to one country, but it may not be applied to another country. Precisely for this reason, the sources that make this measurement such as the IMF, World Bank and others, there are always divergences and changes in the PPP GDP of each country, the list is never diametrically equal and this is related to the basket of products that is used to carry out the comparison.

In the military sphere, the PPP GDP definitely becomes the best measure to determine the level of spending on defense, but a country that imports many weapons will have to undergo corrections, because its imports are carried out at the market exchange price. India, for example, is a country that imports many weapons annually, just in military contracts signed with Russia, USA and France are more than US$80 billion, a country that carries out this level of import will suffer corrections in defense spending and the measure in PPP will become deficient. In the case of Chinese and Russian it is totally different.

For example, I know you like to put gun prices and I also share that premise, I read a while ago that a ton of common steel for ships in the US must cost somewhere around US$2,000, in China some time ago I read that cost somewhere around ¥5000 to ¥7000, that would be somewhere around $771 to $1,080. Obviously the price of steel by far is not even what most influences the price of the ship, but just as all production in China is nationalized, the same applies to Chinese combat systems, a while ago I saw that the radar of the Type 055 cost ¥1 billion, that's somewhere around US$154 million, Arleigh Burke III's SPY-6 radar costs over US$300 million.

Let's look at a middle ground that could apply to Indians, the KDX-III Batch II destroyer is a ship that is produced in South Korea, but the combat system is western (AN/SPY-1D(V), Aegis, SM -2 Block IIIB , SM-6 among others), in November it was published that the second ship in this class was contracted for production and the cost is US$538.9 million, this value is the price of the ship without the combat system. , based on the first ship built in its class (+US$930 million), this means that the combat systems that the South Korean destroyer will have are estimated to be in excess of US$400 million.

A case like the one above could not even be measured by the PPP method and these are the cases of countries that import at market price level like all European countries that import from the US, such as the Japanese case, South Korean, Australia between others. Strictly speaking, the nationalization index of China and Russia believes that the PPP measurement method is the most efficient for analyzing defense spending.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Before I start answering, how can you catch old arguments about something, because I try to search for a word and I always end up not finding it. This would make my life a lot easier, I've already tried to view it in the forum feedback, but I couldn't find it. If you can help me, I appreciate it.

My comment was oriented to the civil economy to explain that there are problems in measuring PPP GDP, but in practical terms, it is still the best measure to assess the potential and development of a national economy, the PPP GDP per capita is still the best measure to explain the development of an economy.

For example, in a basket of products that is used to compose the PPP GDP, it may be that such country - say Saudi Arabia - does not have the same consumption ratio and weight with another country, say France, in this PPP GDP conversion , there will be measurement problems because products that have been placed in a basket for comparison can be applied to one country, but it may not be applied to another country. Precisely for this reason, the sources that make this measurement such as the IMF, World Bank and others, there are always divergences and changes in the PPP GDP of each country, the list is never diametrically equal and this is related to the basket of products that is used to carry out the comparison.

In the military sphere, the PPP GDP definitely becomes the best measure to determine the level of spending on defense, but a country that imports many weapons will have to undergo corrections, because its imports are carried out at the market exchange price. India, for example, is a country that imports many weapons annually, just in military contracts signed with Russia, USA and France are more than US$80 billion, a country that carries out this level of import will suffer corrections in defense spending and the measure in PPP will become deficient. In the case of Chinese and Russian it is totally different.

For example, I know you like to put gun prices and I also share that premise, I read a while ago that a ton of common steel for ships in the US must cost somewhere around US$2,000, in China some time ago I read that cost somewhere around ¥5000 to ¥7000, that would be somewhere around $771 to $1,080. Obviously the price of steel by far is not even what most influences the price of the ship, but just as all production in China is nationalized, the same applies to Chinese combat systems, a while ago I saw that the radar of the Type 055 cost ¥1 billion, that's somewhere around US$154 million, Arleigh Burke III's SPY-6 radar costs over US$300 million.

Let's look at a middle ground that could apply to Indians, the KDX-III Batch II destroyer is a ship that is produced in South Korea, but the combat system is western (AN/SPY-1D(V), Aegis, SM -2 Block IIIB , SM-6 among others), in November it was published that the second ship in this class was contracted for production and the cost is US$538.9 million, this value is the price of the ship without the combat system. , based on the first ship built in its class (+US$930 million), this means that the combat systems that the South Korean destroyer will have are estimated to be in excess of US$400 million.

A case like the one above could not even be measured by the PPP method and these are the cases of countries that import at market price level like all European countries that import from the US, such as the Japanese case, South Korean, Australia between others. Strictly speaking, the nationalization index of China and Russia believes that the PPP measurement method is the most efficient for analyzing defense spending.

Yes.

PPP is definitely better at measuring Chinese and Russian military spending. The rationalisation is outlined below

In the case of China and the US, the PPP is preferable to the MER. There are three major reasons. First, the Market Exchange Rate only reflects the relative prices of goods and services traded internationally. Second, China manipulates its currency and distorts the signal of underlying price levels. And third, the PPP for consumer prices is a fair approximation of the price-level that producers face in each country, and to the extent that they might diverge, it would have the effect of making China’s military spending look even larger.

acquisitiontalk.com/2019/01/how-large-is-military-spending-in-the-us-and-china/
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
The US enjoys 'exorbitant privilege' due to having the greenback as the world's reserve currency. As such, running up massive trade deficits do not matter. Normal rules simply do not apply to the hegemon in the system.
I am not sure its privilege to print money without any direction. as it can fundamentally change demographics by attracting people in random businesses. US had 140m population in 1940 before WWII. now it is 350m. but this not the same demographic composition. it has impact on cohesion, cultures, values, crimes as locals compete with foreigners.
back in October Japan was lobbying Arabs to lower the price but most probably not succeed. as Arabs can easily sell that oil to India at higher price. India is the biggest beneficiary of money printing as stock market cap and asset prices are in Top 5 countries.
Alot of top mangers in various global firms came from India due to IT background. so this software service industry has encroached every other industry. If Japan/Korea/Taiwan cannot get reasonable price energy. They are going to raise prices of goods they make.
this thing is happening on much larger scale in Europe.
All this price increases end up costing US consumers. it can happen from poor service in airline industry to medicines. aviation industry supply chains are integrated between Japan/EU/US. one side raise the price. it has impact all the way to maintainance and ticket cost. with much poor service to make people cramped like cattle. there is no train alternative at reasonable price.

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Suetham

Senior Member
Registered Member
I am not sure its privilege to print money without any direction. as it can fundamentally change demographics by attracting people in random businesses. US had 140m population in 1940 before WWII. now it is 350m. but this not the same demographic composition. it has impact on cohesion, cultures, values, crimes as locals compete with foreigners.
back in October Japan was lobbying Arabs to lower the price but most probably not succeed. as Arabs can easily sell that oil to India at higher price. India is the biggest beneficiary of money printing as stock market cap and asset prices are in Top 5 countries.
Alot of top mangers in various global firms came from India due to IT background. so this software service industry has encroached every other industry. If Japan/Korea/Taiwan cannot get reasonable price energy. They are going to raise prices of goods they make.
this thing is happening on much larger scale in Europe.
All this price increases end up costing US consumers. it can happen from poor service in airline industry to medicines. aviation industry supply chains are integrated between Japan/EU/US. one side raise the price. it has impact all the way to maintainance and ticket cost. with much poor service to make people cramped like cattle. there is no train alternative at reasonable price.

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The fact that the dollar is an international reserve and exchange currency definitely offers some privileges to Americans, this advantage offers Americans the possibility of having fewer consequences than if it were a country with a weak demand currency, this monetary policy has some usefulness in the expenditure of the public budget, mainly in defense. In a normal country that does not have this advantage and privilege, the level of budget deficit that is occurring in the US would definitely send the country to the bottom.

There's a very interesting topic about it: PLA Strategist: The U.S. Uses Its Dollar to Dominate the World
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
he fact that the dollar is an international reserve and exchange currency definitely offers some privileges to Americans, this advantage offers Americans the possibility of having fewer consequences than if it were a country with a weak demand currency, this monetary policy has some usefulness in the expenditure of the public budget, mainly in defense. In a normal country that does not have this advantage and privilege, the level of budget deficit that is occurring in the US would definitely send the country to the bottom.

There's a very interesting topic about it: PLA Strategist: The U.S. Uses Its Dollar to Dominate the World
what is a normal country?
ECB (far less population than US) balance sheet is bigger than US Fed and Euro hardly a reserve currency. even Japanese total debt is huge. it is just they choose not spend all on military. US developed more than 120 years ago much before reserve currency.
It was self sufficient productive continent. already decades ahead of other countries by 1930s in so many fields and has all the infrastructure and education system to absorb best people. military is just byproduct.
artificial creation of wealth through stock market has distorted the work ethic of society. why become aerospace/railway engineer or factory supervisor when software engineers can make millions and retire at early age.


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Saudi Aramco traces its beginnings to 1933 when a Concession Agreement was signed between Saudi Arabia and the Standard Oil Company of California (SOCAL). A subsidiary company, the California Arabian Standard Oil Company (CASOC), was created to manage the agreement.
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gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
what is a normal country?
ECB (far less population than US) balance sheet is bigger than US Fed and Euro hardly a reserve currency. even Japanese total debt is huge. it is just they choose not spend all on military. US developed more than 120 years ago much before reserve currency.
It was self sufficient productive continent. already decades ahead of other countries by 1930s in so many fields and has all the infrastructure and education system to absorb best people. military is just byproduct.
artificial creation of wealth through stock market has distorted the work ethic of society. why become aerospace/railway engineer or factory supervisor when software engineers can make millions and retire at early age.

Wrong. Eurozone population: 342 409 476 citizens. US population 331 893 745 citizens.
National debt of Eurozone in 2020 in relation to GDP: 98%. National debt of US in 2020 in relation to GDP: 128%.

Also, contrary to the US, the Eurozone has a positive balance of trade. That is the reason why the Japanese economy can get so indebted and not blow up. Well that and the fact most of the debt is internal.

US is not a militaristic country you say. Well, if you go by the metric US President Jimmy Carter used, for how many years since its foundation has the US not been at war?
 

pmc

Major
Registered Member
Wrong. Eurozone population: 342 409 476 citizens. US population 331 893 745 citizens.
National debt of Eurozone in 2020 in relation to GDP: 98%. National debt of US in 2020 in relation to GDP: 128%.

Also, contrary to the US, the Eurozone has a positive balance of trade. That is the reason why the Japanese economy can get so indebted and not blow up. Well that and the fact most of the debt is internal.

US is not a militaristic country you say. Well, if you go by the metric US President Jimmy Carter used, for how many years since its foundation has the US not been at war?
I am not referring to national debt which itself is suspect figures but ECB balance sheet and it money printing ability to pump asset prices. how come ECB print so much when Euro is not reserve currency?
US is part of NAFTA integrated economic system. Majority of US trade is with Mexico and Canada. while Eurozone does not have nearby big trade partner.
how come US/Canada/Mexico generate so much more electricity than Eurozone but Eurozone is more industrialized?
The real resident population will be much higher. that they may not want to count for political reason.
US was military/scientific/energy/agriculture power much before dollar become reserve currency. the person before me wrote that reserve currency is privilege that help in budgets.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Did you know printing Euros requires having them partially backed by Dollars?

As for the money printing if the Eurozone expects to maintain a positive trade balance with one of their main trade partners (US) they need to keep up with their currency depreciation rate. Otherwise the same thing would happen as it did to Japan after the Plaza Accords when they let the Yen appreciate. Their exports would implode. As is the Euro already has more weight than the Dollar in terms of exchange rate.

As for US/Canada/Mexico terrible energy usage. Stop living on suburbia people. Seriously. Everyone is spread so much horizontally that doing anything costs more. Canada has the added "benefit" of having an extremely cold climate. Also, try comparing European refrigerator sizes with US refrigerator sizes. It is an interesting comparison to say the least.

The luxury industry also uses way less energy to get the same cash result than other industries.
 
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