Chinese Economics Thread

[weig2000]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1475829216176451584

Some weeks ago, I mentioned in this thread (I think) that Chinese export this year before the year-end would exceed the export target set in the 14th Five-Year Plan by the end of 2025!

To be fair, the export target for the 14th Five-Year Plan was a relatively conservative, taking into account the Us-China trade war and other factors.

 

[Overbom]

1. Covid control. The Chinese economy rebounded earlier while other competing export economies struggled with new variants, resulting in more market share.

Also important to note that normally to increase market share you have to fight tooth and nail to gain some 0.001 percent increase.

Here, China got an opportunity out of blue (also thanks to Western incompetence) to vastly increase its market share with relative ease.

Now that China has taken such a commanding lead, other countries will have to fight a 100 battles to claw back their "losses" from China. They will have to fight really hard though, as Chinese businessmen/businesswomen are real demons in maintaining market share.

After all, the most valuable thing in business is market share (see Netflix and Amazon who are endlessly expanding)

 

[antiterror13]

I think it will be rolled over (continued) while changing some things in the deal so that both sides save "face"

China for "technically" not meeting the purchase commitments.
US for not having the ability to "punish" China for not meeting its purchases commitments lol

They will try to find a way to sweep this under the rug. Obviously, China is the one who is in position of strength this time. So the US is entering the negotiations with a weak hand

do u think the US "meeting" the commitments ?

 

[Overbom]

do u think the US "meeting" the commitments ?

Noone is meeting their commitments. US and China for obvious reasons.

IMO US broke the deal first by imposing extra sanctions. After that it all went down. However I still see China making good faith actions to meet some of its commitments.

Contrast that with the US which is constantly undermining the deal. In-fact, i think that China has such a strong hand on this, that it could threaten to cancel the entire deal if it really wanted to do so.

Of course that would be a lose-lose, but if pushed enough it could do it. IMO what will happen is that they will renegotiate the deal with China gaining most of the benefits (position of strength).

Next year is a year of stability. Both China and US need stability. The real bad stuff could happen in 2023

 

[Tyler]

Also important to note that normally to increase market share you have to fight tooth and nail to gain some 0.001 percent increase.

Here, China got an opportunity out of blue (also thanks to Western incompetence) to vastly increase its market share with relative ease.

Now that China has taken such a commanding lead, other countries will have to fight a 100 battles to claw back their "losses" from China. They will have to fight really hard though, as Chinese businessmen/businesswomen are real demons in maintaining market share.

After all, the most valuable thing in business is market share (see Netflix and Amazon who are endlessly expanding)

How does China counter netflix and amazon?

 

[Andy1974]

How does China counter netflix and amazon?

With Tik Tok and Live-streaming?

 

[gadgetcool5]

Netflix and Amazons' advantages is they are always reaching out to the global market and competing in as many countries as they can, rather than just stay in the US. Thus they have billions of potential users even though the US population is only 330 million. Tik Tok is a successful Chinese company that has branched out, but the problem is it relies on the Google Play Store and Apple App Store outside of China so it can be banned at any time by the US in markets outside the US.

China needs to develop its own app store ecosystem outside China and also a global community of developers for those apps. Then apps like WeChat can branch out globally. This is what Huawei was trying to do when it got banned.

However, that doesn't stop Chinese streaming services or online retailers from branching outside of China, since they don't rely on mobile apps.

 

[siegecrossbow]

With Tik Tok and Live-streaming?

Chinese streaming service doesn't really have killer apps, or highly sought after platform original content (Squid Game for example) that could attract millions of viewers world wide.

 

[Petrolicious88]

Chinese streaming service doesn't really have killer apps, or highly sought after platform original content (Squid Game for example) that could attract millions of viewers world wide.

China needs to develop its soft power. When Jurassic Park Movie came out in the 1990s, it made more money than what Hyundai Motors made in the entire year. Korean government then decided to cultivate it’s pop culture as a way to promote its soft power.

 

[Aniah]

China needs to develop its soft power. When Jurassic Park Movie came out in the 1990s, it made more money than what Hyundai Motors made in the entire year. Korean government then decided to cultivate it’s pop culture as a way to promote its soft power.

It already is, give it time. I do not want to bring up another Rome analogy.