Chinese Economics Thread

[delft]

There is little opportunity for China to overtake US debt records. Take a look at this Washington Post article:

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[antiterror13]

You are comparing apple and orange here Kurt. Japan lost its competitiveness due to to pressure from western nation to jack up their yen by 100% in the Plaza accord.

Japan has no choice because she is beholden to the US and the West interest and depend on the western market and security.
Japan compounded the error by keeping all those Zombies of Banking alive in order to buy the social peace.

China is master of her own destiny beholden to no one. She refused to raise the Yuan parity under constant badgering by the US and the West.

As well only 50% of her population live in urban setting and the need to move about 400 million of surplus labor to the cities , will keep China humming for years to come. Just think of all the need housing, power,transportation, social facilities etc.

China is continental size economy with large internal market, Largely independent of grain, coal, oil and most metal , their energy comes mostly from coal . The oil import only serve transportation

So any comparison to Japan is irrelevant!

Agree, perhaps the earth is not big enough to have wealthy China and India (as wealthy as western world) until fusion nuclear power plant widely available, and it will be at least another 20 years ... WAR is the result, I am afraid. Please note I am not supporting any war, just history tell us what would happen.

 

[solarz]

I would say 2020 as a safe bet and I'm waiting for the inevitable Chinese economic crash afterwards that devalues much of their current assets and achievements. It'll be the right time to invest in China and get more bang for your buck. Unfortunately, the Chinese will similar to the Japanese have a lost generation or overtake US debt records, so you might need to wait some time before your investments pay off.

CHINA:
Population: 1,339,724,852
Territory: 9,640,821 km^2

JAPAN:
Population: 128,056,026
Territory: 377,944 km^2

And you think the Chinese economic progression will be similar to that of Japan?

 

[Kurt]

Population numbers and territorial sizes are irrelevant. The bear doesn't exist without the bull. Long growth period, long economic depression.
The similarity between China and Japan is one-party state directed development that must avoid economic decline at all costs and has unfortunately the power to stall that for some time.
So whatever the reason, no country keeps only growing forever.

 

[Blitzo]

Population numbers and territorial sizes are irrelevant. The bear doesn't exist without the bull. Long growth period, long economic depression.
The similarity between China and Japan is one-party state directed development that must avoid economic decline at all costs and has unfortunately the power to stall that for some time.
So whatever the reason, no country keeps only growing forever.

There's a difference between that last sentence and the idea that China will break the US's debt record sometime after 2020 and have a "lost generation" like japan not long after... >_>

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Population numbers and territorial sizes are irrelevant. The bear doesn't exist without the bull. Long growth period, long economic depression.
The similarity between China and Japan is one-party state directed development that must avoid economic decline at all costs and has unfortunately the power to stall that for some time.
So whatever the reason, no country keeps only growing forever.

Not all one party system are equaled Japan LDP was ossified and run like daimyo lord with hereditary politician monopolized the top law maker. Sooner or later that kind of system will run out of idea.

China like Singapore select their civil servant based on meritocracy to certain extent where young and aspiring leader are identified and selected . Then they were given position to see if they can make it. The best of them will advanced to the next stage of selection. It goes on and on.

You of all people should know why German industry are excellent because of the apprenticeship system that they have

So because both Japan and China has one party system doesn't mean China will face the same fate as Japan. Singapore certainly didn't

For your information China doesn't shirk from shutting off hundred of unprofitable state owned enterprises or privatized them. They did it in 1993 period when hundreds of state company were either shut, sold or privatized. Again the Chinese entrepreneurship spirit are alive and well back in 90. They even had expression "jumping to the sea"

Even now Chinese private company comprises only about 50% but the generate most of the jobs

 

[antiterror13]

CHINA:
Population: 1,339,724,852
Territory: 9,640,821 km^2

JAPAN:
Population: 128,056,026
Territory: 377,944 km^2

And you think the Chinese economic progression will be similar to that of Japan?

China coastline is 14,500 km and Japan coastline is 29,751 km ! does it tell you something ?

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Japan food self sufficiency is only 40%, it means Japanese need to import 60% of their food meanwhile China food self-sufficiency is 95%. So, if the war broke and there is no trade because no ship will sail to Japan or China, Japanese would suffer the most

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I don't believe the size of territory has got anything to do with it, but no, China will not follow Japan path of lost a decade. China had already lost a decade during cultural revolution, China will not repeat it

 

[Maggern]

And Norway's coastline is 100 000 km....

 

[solarz]

Population numbers and territorial sizes are irrelevant. The bear doesn't exist without the bull. Long growth period, long economic depression.
The similarity between China and Japan is one-party state directed development that must avoid economic decline at all costs and has unfortunately the power to stall that for some time.
So whatever the reason, no country keeps only growing forever.

So you think the population size (i.e. market and work force size) and the amount of natural resources a country can access is irrelevant to its economic dynamic?

Bear doesn't exist without the bull? Long growth period, long economic depression? Do you have any actual evidence to back up those claims?

 

[Martian]

China's $751 Billion High-tech Exports for 2010

For 2010, China's top three high-tech exports for "Electrical machinery and equipment," "Power generation equipment," and "Optics and medical equipment" totaled $751 billion US dollars.

Greater China's patents provide the fundamental pillar for China's high-tech exports.

Source:

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[Note: Thank you to Hellraiser006 for reminding me to update China's export figures for 2010.]