Chinese Economics Thread

j17wang

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This is the right time now. France and Germany have caught up vaccinations with leaders like UK and US and China is also doing well for vaccinations. I am concerned that some parts of china are still to be vaccinated but major cities where vaccination rates are now approaching 70-70% should be opened up for normal travel. China's latest estimate was 2.2 billion doses to reach herd immunity, and we are at 1.3 billion doses so we could reach that target by early september.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Yes



No



Yes. The Chinese wanted to make an example of DiDi for going for the US IPO when it was clear that the Chinese Gov has been actively discouraging its big tech companies from doing so.
So yes, this was a conspiracy to punish DiDi and as a result the US Investors in a legal term, have suffered (or will on Tuesday) "material damages".


Yes, the investigation was the Chinese Gov punching DiDi but the app removal was a bazooka, ie. a dramatic escalation and a very serious move which will have "material harm" to its business operations



It is proof because the US investors invested and bought shares on the company based on that it was not under such serious investigation and that it had its app on the app stores so that it could grow its userbase.

The app removal will harm its user growth. And the investigation, who knows what will happen, a big multi-billion fine or small change to its operation, big change to its operations, more data centers to be built in China (more cost) etc

So as you can see this is Negative for the company thus the share price will be lowered. So the US investors have just (in Tuesday..) lost big money because of the Chinese regulator deliberately being late to its announcement of its investigation and app removal.

And DiDi is also responsible for not strongly making a disclosure for these business risks.

The FT comment I posted previously makes a good list on which parties are responsible for this mess

Dude. I hope you didn’t buy Didi stocks. DON’T invest unless the situation clears up, which is doubtful. I have a source indicating that the upper management at Didi haven’t realized the gravity of the situation and that there may be further, more severe crackdown measures.
 

KYli

Brigadier
This is the right time now. France and Germany have caught up vaccinations with leaders like UK and US and China is also doing well for vaccinations. I am concerned that some parts of china are still to be vaccinated but major cities where vaccination rates are now approaching 70-70% should be opened up for normal travel. China's latest estimate was 2.2 billion doses to reach herd immunity, and we are at 1.3 billion doses so we could reach that target by early september.
I am quite doubtful that would happen. All signs point to the fact that the Chinese government has no plan to open up this year. Early this year, there are discussions to open up in the fall but after the Delta variant emerged there are hints that it would not happen.

At the moment, the goal is to get 80% of people vaccinated, administer vaccines to 3-17 years old, select a booster shot, and get the second/third generation vaccines ready to deal with all types of variants. I expect second half of next year for full reopening but some arrangements and easing would be done before that.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
Dude. I hope you didn’t buy Didi stocks. DON’T invest unless the situation clears up, which is doubtful. I have a source indicating that the upper management at Didi haven’t realized the gravity of the situation and that there may be further, more severe crackdown measures.
Man look at the pre-market. Thats 20% down! No way I am missing this. Anyway, I am long DiDi, I am not looking for investing short term for 6 months or 1 year. I am investing for a minimum of 5 yrs at the future.

DiDi is ripe for the picking. Even if worst news come in the future I will just buy more shares.

Ok excluding investing choice and advice, today is going to be a real bloodbath for DiDi.
Premarket already 20% down
IMG_20210706_115506.jpg
IMG_20210706_115623.jpg
 

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Man look at the pre-market. Thats 20% down! No way I am missing this. Anyway, I am long DiDi, I am not looking for investing short term for 6 months or 1 year. I am investing for a minimum of 5 yrs at the future.

DiDi is ripe for the picking. Even if worst news come in the future I will just buy more shares.

Ok excluding investing choice and advice, today is going to be a real bloodbath for DiDi.
Premarket already 20% down
View attachment 74366
View attachment 74367

Well, the time to buy is when prices are low. Any old fool could've told you that. But heed this. Even the most brilliant minds can loose their shirt in this, the state sponsor casino. Just ask Isaac Newton.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Man look at the pre-market. Thats 20% down! No way I am missing this. Anyway, I am long DiDi, I am not looking for investing short term for 6 months or 1 year. I am investing for a minimum of 5 yrs at the future.

DiDi is ripe for the picking. Even if worst news come in the future I will just buy more shares.

Ok excluding investing choice and advice, today is going to be a real bloodbath for DiDi.
Premarket already 20% down
View attachment 74366
View attachment 74367

My point is that this may not be the worst… The best case scenario for Didi is to accept heavy fines ala Alibaba and make a sincere open apology. But management at Didi are not willing to do even that. The clock is ticking man…
 

krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
Man look at the pre-market. Thats 20% down! No way I am missing this. Anyway, I am long DiDi, I am not looking for investing short term for 6 months or 1 year. I am investing for a minimum of 5 yrs at the future.

DiDi is ripe for the picking. Even if worst news come in the future I will just buy more shares.

Ok excluding investing choice and advice, today is going to be a real bloodbath for DiDi.
Premarket already 20% down
The app ban is being pushed by the China government and/or regulatory agencies. Imo, this isn't going away. It's a big no-no involving American spy agencies and it isn't going away. Why do you think the Americans are constantly whining about locating data servers on American soil? It's because they are blatantly spying on everybody. America is projecting its own misdeeds on China, that's why this is even a thing. Didi will eventually be forced to locate their data servers in America. When that happens, Didi is probably going to be forced into divesting its American operations into a separate entity from China, similar to how TikTok is separate from Douyin. This will absolutely massacre the stock price. A 20% drop is nothing compared to the risk of what can happen. Why even take such a risk when there are better investments out there?
 

broadsword

Brigadier
Man look at the pre-market. Thats 20% down! No way I am missing this. Anyway, I am long DiDi, I am not looking for investing short term for 6 months or 1 year. I am investing for a minimum of 5 yrs at the future.

DiDi is ripe for the picking. Even if worst news come in the future I will just buy more shares.

If or when the management turns around with a solution that satisfies the Chinese government, for sure the price would have rebounded, but are you are they will pull something out during the next three days?

I think the odyssey is going to drag longer than three days.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
The app ban is being pushed by the China government and/or regulatory agencies. Imo, this isn't going away. It's a big no-no involving American spy agencies and it isn't going away. Why do you think the Americans are constantly whining about locating data servers on American soil? It's because they are blatantly spying on everybody. America is projecting its own misdeeds on China, that's why this is even a thing. Didi will eventually be forced to locate their data servers in America. When that happens, Didi is probably going to be forced into divesting its American operations into a separate entity from China, similar to how TikTok is separate from Douyin. This will absolutely massacre the stock price. A 20% drop is nothing compared to the risk of what can happen. Why even take such a risk when there are better investments out there?

From what I’ve heard Didi hasn’t sold any data yet. However, as a part of the bargain to get Didi listed on NYSE they agreed to unconditional checks from the US government. This ruffled some feathers in China, to say the least, especially given the current political climate.
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
From what I’ve heard Didi hasn’t sold any data yet. However, as a part of the bargain to get Didi listed on NYSE they agreed to unconditional checks from the US government. This ruffled some feathers in China, to say the least, especially given the current political climate.
These Chinese companies listing on the US are definetely traitors. They should be all handled by the Gov.

Good thing that the Cyberspace Regulator has powers to remove them from the app stores. Lets see now who else will dare to play similar tricks.

Yes you can raise your sweet US IPO cash but then you should be prepared for having 0% usergrowth while the app is removed from the app store.
 
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