Chinese Economics Thread

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
US, China Corporations to Sign 30 Commercial Deals Worth Billions
News Type: Event — Seeded on Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:00 PM EDT

Top firms from the United States and China will sign Monday more than 30 commercial deals worth billions of dollars ahead of senior level official talks on critical economic issues, an official said.

The inking of the agreements will be witnessed by Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Qishan and Commerce Minister Chen Deming, who are leading a cabinet team for two days of talks with the US side led by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke.

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Schumacher

Senior Member
So, they've raised the price of fuel. So much for the talks that they wouldn't do this or let the stock markets dive just before the Olympics.
Some short term pain for long term gain.

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China Raises Fuel, Power Prices to Curb Energy Consumption

By Wang Ying and Theresa Tang

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer, will raise gasoline and diesel prices by at least 17 percent as of today and increase power tariffs to rein in energy consumption and slow the economy.

Gasoline will increase 17 percent to 6,980 yuan ($1,015) a metric ton from 5,980 yuan, diesel will rise 18 percent to 6,520 yuan and jet fuel will climb by 1,500 yuan, or 25 percent, to 7,450 yuan, the National Development and Reform Commission said on its Web site yesterday. On July 1, China will boost electricity prices by an average 0.025 yuan a kilowatt-hour and cap thermal coal prices until the end of this year.

The Chinese authorities want to curb growth and ease pressure on the state-owned refining companies which have been hurt by rising oil costs. The move, which risks boosting inflation, follows similar fuel price increases in India, Malaysia and Indonesia.

``This pushes inflation up in China but contributes to easing inflationary pressure elsewhere in the world,'' Merrill Lynch & Co.'s head of global commodities research, Francisco Blanch, said by phone yesterday.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. and PetroChina Co., the nations two largest oil refiners, surged in U.S. trading. Sinopec, as China Petroleum is known, rose $1.37, or 3.4 percent, to $42.20 at 1:32 p.m. in New York yesterday, while PetroChina gained $5.85, or 4.4 percent, to $140.38.

Energy Use

The country must cut energy use by at least 5 percent for every unit of gross domestic product annually for the next three years to meet its 2010 objective, Yang Tiesheng, director of the commission's energy efficiency division, said at the Energy Efficiency Asia conference in Beijing yesterday.

``It is an extremely difficult target to meet, but I'm optimistic that the government will achieve it by making the utmost effort,'' Yang said.

The country cut energy use by 2.62 percent for every 10,000 yuan ($1,454) of GDP in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, an NDRC official said. The government aims to pare energy use by 20 percent for each unit of GDP in 2010 from 2005 levels.

The world's fourth-largest economy expanded 10.6 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the ninth straight quarter of double-digit growth. Driving the expansion were factories powered by dirty coal while the wealth following the nation's economic expansion spurred car sales and fuel demand.

Environmental Tax

The government is considering a so-called environmental tax, a new levy on auto fuels and changes to existing taxes on natural-resource use, Fu Jing, deputy director of policy and legislation at the State Administration of Taxation, said at the conference.

China may tax the use of products that pollute the environment or aren't energy-efficient, the China Securities Journal reported yesterday, citing Vice Finance Minister Zhang Shaochun.

The nation seeks to reduce energy use for each unit of GDP to 0.98 ton of coal equivalent by 2010 from 1.22 tons in 2005, Yang said today. China used 1.17 tons for every unit of GDP last year, Xu Dingming, director general of the commission's energy bureau, said in February.

China's largest investment bank said earlier this week the country, the world's biggest energy consumer after the U.S., should raise fuel prices by 50 percent to improve energy efficiency.

The nation needs to increase oil-product prices as rising subsidies pose ``considerable risks'' to fiscal sustainability, China International Capital Corp. economists including Ha Jiming and Gao Ting wrote in a report on June 16.

The level of international oil prices depends ``to a significant degree'' on China's energy pricing policy, as the country accounts for about 40 percent of the increase in global consumption, the bank said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Wang Ying in Beijing at [email protected]; Theresa Tang in Hong Kong at [email protected]
Last Updated: June 19, 2008 13:44 EDT
 

RedMercury

Junior Member
They had to wait for food inflation to curb before being able to do this without some very angry poor people. Of course, higher energy prices will set off inflation of its own.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Its a good read about the cost and benefits of the Olympics.

Beijing Olympics—Too large, too costly? Maybe not
The use of diversified funding sources, and plans to use the venues after the games could see Beijing come out ahead.

Billed as the most expensive games to date, this summer's Beijing Olympics will likely run up a bill of significantly over $20 billion. Some may question whether this will be too much—that it will become a financial millstone around the Beijing municipal government's neck. But while the cost of hosting the games is huge, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services believes that Beijing is well-equipped to handle it. The importance to China in terms of boosting its international standing is obvious, but the Chinese authorities appear to recognise that the Olympics isn't an end in itself. Indeed, their careful planning of this massive sporting event suggests the benefits of hosting the Games will continue long after the closing ceremony.

(con't)

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Norfolk

Junior Member
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Hello getready, glad you enjoy our Forum!:)

"Quoted from the web site of the National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China",
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:



"
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", National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2008-06-12:



From January to May, the general level of accumulated CPI increased 8.1 percent year-on-year. Of the total, urban and rural areas rose by 7.7 and 8.8 percent respectively; that of food, tobacco, liquor, and articles, household services and maintenance and renovation, health care and personal articles, and residence expanded 21.0, 2.5, 2.4, 3.4 and 6.7 percent respectively; that of clothing, transportation and communication, recreational, educational and cultural articles dropped 1.5, 1.5 and 0.8 percent respectively.


More at the link.


"
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",
National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2008-06-16:


In May, value-added of the industrial enterprises above designated size (all state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises with an annual income over 5 million yuan) expanded 16.0 percent, year-on-year, increased 0.3 percentage points than April, while that 2.1 percentage points dropped over previous May. Because of the "5 • 1" holiday shortened, the different working days in this and previous May contained incomparable factors.


More at the link.


"
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", National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2008-06-19:



In May, the national real estate climate index was 103.34, 0.73 points lower than the previous month, and remained the general level, year-on-year.


The investment index of real estate development was 104.08, down by 0.20 points from April, while it up by 1.71 points compared with the same month last year. The total investment in real estate development from January to May was up to 951.9 billion yuan, up by 31.9 percent from the same period last year. Investment in residential buildings reached 680.6 billion yuan, 35.0 percent of increase. Of which, the completed investment in economically affordable housings was 25.6 billion yuan, rose by 23.4 percent

More at the link. In spite of continued inflationary pressures, the Chinese economy continues to perform spectacularly, and in apparent defiance of global economic trends, from dramatically increasing petroleum costs to international financial and economic weakness and uncertainty. The remarkable is in danger of becoming unremarkable in China. See also "
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", The People's Bank of China, 2008-6-16:


In May 2008, the price of corporate goods rose by 0.4 percent and 9.6 percent from last month and the same period last year respectively(see the
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below).
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
I saw these videos about the coming crash of oil and the US dollar and it was rather chilling. The first is worth watching at the start but gets mixed up with conspiracy theories in the end.

The oil crash

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The US dollar crash

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This one by author Mike Rupert
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
Some sectors are not doing so great and the Darwinian effects starting to roll.

Shrinking profits force hundreds of Chinese shoe makers to quit

BEIJING, July 1 (AFP) Jul 01, 2008

Hundreds of shoe makers in southern China have closed down this year as profits slumped due to the rising yuan, higher costs and a weakening demand overseas, industry insiders said Tuesday.

Around 500 shoe factories -- or 10 percent -- in Huidong county in Guangdong province have closed, Mingdanni Shoes Co. owner Ye Hua told AFP.

Huidong is on the Pearl River Delta, the world's largest footwear production centre, which lost a total 2,331 shoe firms between January and May, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Tuesday.

"Customers from the United States and Europe have reduced since last year due to the appreciation of the yuan," Ye said.

"We are under big pressure and it feels like it's hard to breathe."

The Chinese currency has appreciated about 20 percent against the dollar in three years, making the country's exports more expensive -- and therefore less attractive -- to foreign buyers.

What makes matters worse is costs are increasing dramatically. Some raw material prices have doubled while domestic inflation has spiked and international oil prices have soared.

"Costs are rising ... but the price of my shoes is lower than last year. All these have squeezed my profits," Ye said, adding the profit margin for his shoes is 80 percent less now than it was a year ago.

Wu Hang, the Association of Guangdong Shoes Manufacturers secretary general, said local shoe makers have limited bargaining power because they have too many competitors.

"Many companies are shifting their focus on to the domestic market. At least they now walk with both legs by looking at both foreign and home markets," Wu told AFP.

Despite manufacturers' pain, customs data shows the value of shoe exports actually rose by 9.4 percent to 3.97 billion dollars in the first five months of 2008, Xinhua reported.

It said the trading environment has evolved, leading to industrial upgrades that would help drive the unit price of China-made shoes higher.

"The industrial structure will definitely be optimised, with strong players getting stronger," Wu said.


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Schumacher

Senior Member
Some sectors are not doing so great and the Darwinian effects starting to roll.

Shrinking profits force hundreds of Chinese shoe makers to quit

.......

China has been raising minimum wages & adding new pro-labour laws right in the middle of the current inflation cycle suggestion it's their fundamental policy now to move away from low end manufacturing.
I'm sensing this will be a good policy, the so called 'China killers', India & Vietnam, expected by many to take over low end manufacturing are experiencing even higher inflation with Vietnam above 20%. In this age of high inflation, nobody will be able to take over China's low end & expect to make profit.
When the dust settles, the world will simply have to pay more for shoes etc & I expect the strongest shoe makers will still be in China with better margin.
 

crobato

Colonel
VIP Professional
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The Dragon and the Eagle, a multi part series from the Telegraph. This particular chapter is about the rise of Chongging and its car manufacturers.
 
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