Chinese Economics Thread

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Assuming the oil futures price is right, why not just buy oil futures or call option. Alternatively, perhaps pay the seller for storage,

Historically low shipping fees.

Oil futures are also just pieces of paper that does not protect you from actual production or transportation disruptions.

For example, if COVID19 ends up shutting down ME and Russian oilfields, having oil futures is meaningless if there isn’t actually the physical supply available anymore.

Countries buy oil for strategic reserves and contingency planning, not to make maximum profit.
 

Hadoren

Junior Member
Registered Member
I read with substantial concern this fact:

The Chinese don’t have the luxury of salt caverns and have to opt instead for much more expensive storage above ground in tanks. They’re easy to spot on Google Earth and in satellite photos – just look for the rows of large white dots.

In a war, wouldn’t these be easily destroyed by cruise missiles or bombing attacks? Especially since most are located on the coast(!)?
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
I read with substantial concern this fact:



In a war, wouldn’t these be easily destroyed by cruise missiles or bombing attacks? Especially since most are located on the coast(!)?
Yes and no. There are salt caverns in China as well, just some are connected to other caverns so not good for storage. China also produce a ton of oil, with imports from Russia and Central Asia that's a lot harder to bomb.

The point of Chinese defence now is to not get bombed on the mainland and fight out in the open seas.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I read with substantial concern this fact:

In a war, wouldn’t these be easily destroyed by cruise missiles or bombing attacks? Especially since most are located on the coast(!)?
Could be, but:

1. Today's wars aren't like WWII; they are high intensity and short so being beaten is really the way to lose rather than being fuel-choked.

2. Shoreline storage is for maritime ease of use. There are inland storage facilities as well that can hold a good bit of supply, at least enough to last a short war. Those, just like everything else inland, will be heavily defended.

3. Wartime fuel consumption is drastically cut and rationed; people will be working from home as much as possible and taking public transport rather than driving.
 

Aniah

Senior Member
Registered Member
Yes and no. There are salt caverns in China as well, just some are connected to other caverns so not good for storage. China also produce a ton of oil, with imports from Russia and Central Asia that's a lot harder to bomb.

The point of Chinese defence now is to not get bombed on the mainland and fight out in the open seas.
I believe any bombing attempt will be a hard task with all those defense missiles that China haves.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Green shoot electricity usage up from february
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Coronavirus: China’s slow economic reboot continues but power surge suggests light at the end of tunnel
  • Electricity generation rebounded in China in the first half of April, a key alternative indicator of economic activity identified by Premier Li Keqiang
  • However, other metrics show that while the economy is reopening, progress is slow and piecemeal
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Published: 7:13pm, 20 Apr, 2020
Updated: 11:41pm, 20 Apr, 2020



Power generation climbed 1.2 per cent in the first 15 days of April, compared to a 4.6 per cent decline in March and a 6.8 per cent slump over the first quarter. Photo: AP

The lights are slowly coming back on for China’s economy after its coronavirus lockdown, with electricity generation and consumption both rising in the first part of April compared with a year earlier.

Power generation climbed 1.2 per cent in the first 15 days of April, compared to a 4.6 per cent decline in March and a 6.8 per cent slump over the first quarter, during which the Chinese government reported the
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since records began in 1992.

Power consumption rose by 1.5 per cent in the first 10 days of April, after a 4.2 per cent fall in March and a 10.1 per cent drop in February, according to an online press briefing by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s state planner, on Monday.
 
checked
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after I'd noticed
"17. Labor productivity: In 2017, the US was 12 times higher than in China."
inside
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further below in that article there's a peculiar point
"32. Research focus: the US focused on biology while China focused on information technology."
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Labour ‘productivity’ is always a massively misleading statistic because of protectionism and inflation as well as currency fluctuations and government spending.

It’s just pretty much GDP divided by total hours worked.

GDP is a factor of price and output.

So all things other being equal, having massively inflated prices and costs will yield higher ‘productivity’, which is a nonsense.

US labour productivity numbers are massively skewed by the 1%ers and the move away from actual physical production. A New York lawyer having a thousand dollar ‘working’ lunch with a client is being as ‘productive’ as dozens of Chinese engineers and software developers by that definition. Jeff Bezos sitting on the toilet is more ‘productive’ than thousands of workers.

At the macro level, the US government borrowing trillions to pay federal workers and fund pork barrel and gravy train projects are massively jacking up ‘productivity’.

Just because the US government pays many times as the Chinese government for warships and fighters does not mean they are getting many times as capable warships and fighters.

Productivity, like all economic figures and indicators, relies on basic economic assumptions working to remain true. Unattainable pre-requisites like perfect competition and perfect knowledge.

In the economics theory world, if two companies are making the same product but one charges more than the other, the cheaper company would get all the demand and the dearer one none.

That is the basis for ‘productivity’ assumptions, that if products are not worth the asking price, nobody would buy them and the company would need to lower prices to the ‘fair’ market rate or go bust.

But real world economics don’t work that way, which is why only those who do not understand the economics or wish to deceive takes things like economic productivity figures seriously.

After all, if America was so much more productive than China, why isn’t America the workshop of the world? The reality is that economics ‘productivity’ often have an inverse relationship to actual real world productivity. If you can make the same thing cheaper, you actually have lower economic productivity.
 
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