Chinese Economics Thread

[ougoah]

@ougoah Here's my take on it:

It was always based on superior performance and quality to cost capabilities. This isn't going to change. Where China continues to bring advantage there, manufacturers will go there for that advantage or be destroyed internationally by competitors who do. Where China is losing advantage is low end unskilled manufacturing where low wages is the absolute advantage and that was bound to happen anyway as the Chinese economy and Chinese technology modernizes and develops. So we will see some manufacturing move out but it was inevitable and expected under the reforms to move up the manufacturing value chain.

Importantly, the legal threat is not present (both in terms of technical procedure and in terms of legal/moral argument) and such calls can only be from un-rebutted articles as any counter argument could easily destroy such a joke of an accusation. Perhaps Chinese news media can answer them; perhaps they already have. But trying to convince an audience that has always been looking for reasons to hate China due to their own fear is an errand not worth running, especially because China has flourished all this time against their irrational hatred.

I think this hatred has reached a new high and seems like it will continue to develop as western media aims at demonising China with renewed fervour. This I fear is going to result in reduced consumption of Chinese goods as competitive as they really are. I see sentimental feelings outweigh rational judgements when it comes to Chinese goods more and more. The Chinese product is head and shoulders better value and decent quality yet all comments and attitudes would be making corona virus puns. One can say these people were never going to buy anyway and those are do are the silent majority. Perhaps this is somewhat true but the initiative is working against China here i.e. it can only be worse rather than better than it seems.

As for moving up the value chain. Chinese electronics I buy at EVERY single opportunity but what chances have Huawei really got now for developing 5G outside China and the usual friendly nations? As opposed to Huawei deserving the 5G contracts for just about the entire world like Boeing and Airbus dominated commercial aviation. China is being blockaded from moving up the value chain while it's slowly losing low end manufacturing which I agree is leaving sooner or later as China's aging uneducated population largely retires and its younger workforce is comparatively educated, lower in numbers, and more productive overall. So basically the west is moving towards rejecting China, leaving it with trading nations that are not exactly brimming with wealth to spend.

How I see it is the US has failed to contain China's rise. It's failed to hold a clear and absolute edge in military terms so direct conflict which is its usual go to method is not an option. Decoupling through escalating trade wars is a better alternative to living with a China that eventually becomes as much of a high value player as Japan, except 10 times larger. The US could stifle Japan since it was largely a militarily dominated nation and had to kowtow to US policies like Plaza Accord. Can the US do similar to a CCP controlled nation that is 10 times the size of Japan, as developed, scientifically and technologically capable? Especially one that doesn't even like the USN sailing close to 1000 miles of it let alone have bases stationed within it.

Certainly it seems the US actually prefers western nations isolating themselves from China and while losing out on the huge Chinese market, they can cripple China by totally shutting off cooperation and trade where possible. On a scale it's never been able to do with 2019 trade policies.

If China can genuinely move up the value chain and remain competitive with the best through only access to developing world markets and its own domestic economy, then that's great. Having the rest of the world is better though. I hear China moving up but I don't see it. It's cars are rarely sold in the west. It's planes are only for Chinese and Russian airlines, its electronics have done decently especially telecom and computing but already that share has been threatened. You can't build an economy out of space launches and even there it's not like China is clearly more competitive than the other options. So where are the high value stuff we're going into that isn't being taken away or threatened? When I say threatened, I mean western propaganda being worked to get consumers and cooperative businesses to move away and reject Chinese ones.

 

[manqiangrexue]

I think this hatred has reached a new high and seems like it will continue to develop as western media aims at demonising China with renewed fervour. This I fear is going to result in reduced consumption of Chinese goods as competitive as they really are. I see sentimental feelings outweigh rational judgements when it comes to Chinese goods more and more. The Chinese product is head and shoulders better value and decent quality yet all comments and attitudes would be making corona virus puns. One can say these people were never going to buy anyway and those are do are the silent majority. Perhaps this is somewhat true but the initiative is working against China here i.e. it can only be worse rather than better than it seems.

As for moving up the value chain. Chinese electronics I buy at EVERY single opportunity but what chances have Huawei really got now for developing 5G outside China and the usual friendly nations? As opposed to Huawei deserving the 5G contracts for just about the entire world like Boeing and Airbus dominated commercial aviation. China is being blockaded from moving up the value chain while it's slowly losing low end manufacturing which I agree is leaving sooner or later as China's aging uneducated population largely retires and its younger workforce is comparatively educated, lower in numbers, and more productive overall. So basically the west is moving towards rejecting China, leaving it with trading nations that are not exactly brimming with wealth to spend.

How I see it is the US has failed to contain China's rise. It's failed to hold a clear and absolute edge in military terms so direct conflict which is its usual go to method is not an option. Decoupling through escalating trade wars is a better alternative to living with a China that eventually becomes as much of a high value player as Japan, except 10 times larger. The US could stifle Japan since it was largely a militarily dominated nation and had to kowtow to US policies like Plaza Accord. Can the US do similar to a CCP controlled nation that is 10 times the size of Japan, as developed, scientifically and technologically capable? Especially one that doesn't even like the USN sailing close to 1000 miles of it let alone have bases stationed within it.

Certainly it seems the US actually prefers western nations isolating themselves from China and while losing out on the huge Chinese market, they can cripple China by totally shutting off cooperation and trade where possible. On a scale it's never been able to do with 2019 trade policies.

If China can genuinely move up the value chain and remain competitive with the best through only access to developing world markets and its own domestic economy, then that's great. Having the rest of the world is better though. I hear China moving up but I don't see it. It's cars are rarely sold in the west. It's planes are only for Chinese and Russian airlines, its electronics have done decently especially telecom and computing but already that share has been threatened. You can't build an economy out of space launches and even there it's not like China is clearly more competitive than the other options. So where are the high value stuff we're going into that isn't being taken away or threatened? When I say threatened, I mean western propaganda being worked to get consumers and cooperative businesses to move away and reject Chinese ones.

So there are 2 important parts being discussed:

1. Are Western nations decoupling from China?

2. If they are, what are the impacts on China?

In regards to #1, you're very pessimistic basically going on personal feel and that's mostly obtained from reading Western (maybe mainly US) MSM. You have to understand that crazy extremists yell the loudest and publish the most ridiculous articles. Western nations are generally filled with people who hate China and people who don't care; the ratio is the million dollar question and depends on the country. The latter group will just keep living their lives doing business as it best suits them. These are the kinds of people who help Chinese business/exports simply by being more or less fair. But they're certainly not going to spend energy arguing or defending China against extremists; they just turn a deaf ear, which is perfectly good enough. The US obviously has a hate-boner for China due to its own fears of being overtaken so getting a feel for public sentiment towards China from American media is basically like asking MacDonalds if they think Burger King makes the best burger. So, with all this bias, I would say that in order to answer #1, data is needed once economies get back in working order and normalized in order to draw a conclusion. How many of Huawei's 5G contracts get cancelled? Are China's exports to these countries rising or falling? Are their investments in China rising or falling? And also, if they are falling, to answer the question of whether developing nations (such as those on the BRI) can truly step in to replace traditionally rich Western countries, are China's total exports and investments rising or falling?

To answer #2, each technological field will be at least a little different depending on where China is. The answers are constantly evolving and and really, they will not be revealed until and unless #1 is proven true.

 

[Canuck place]

I think this hatred has reached a new high and seems like it will continue to develop as western media aims at demonising China with renewed fervour. This I fear is going to result in reduced consumption of Chinese goods as competitive as they really are. I see sentimental feelings outweigh rational judgements when it comes to Chinese goods more and more. The Chinese product is head and shoulders better value and decent quality yet all comments and attitudes would be making corona virus puns. One can say these people were never going to buy anyway and those are do are the silent majority. Perhaps this is somewhat true but the initiative is working against China here i.e. it can only be worse rather than better than it seems.

As for moving up the value chain. Chinese electronics I buy at EVERY single opportunity but what chances have Huawei really got now for developing 5G outside China and the usual friendly nations? As opposed to Huawei deserving the 5G contracts for just about the entire world like Boeing and Airbus dominated commercial aviation. China is being blockaded from moving up the value chain while it's slowly losing low end manufacturing which I agree is leaving sooner or later as China's aging uneducated population largely retires and its younger workforce is comparatively educated, lower in numbers, and more productive overall. So basically the west is moving towards rejecting China, leaving it with trading nations that are not exactly brimming with wealth to spend.

How I see it is the US has failed to contain China's rise. It's failed to hold a clear and absolute edge in military terms so direct conflict which is its usual go to method is not an option. Decoupling through escalating trade wars is a better alternative to living with a China that eventually becomes as much of a high value player as Japan, except 10 times larger. The US could stifle Japan since it was largely a militarily dominated nation and had to kowtow to US policies like Plaza Accord. Can the US do similar to a CCP controlled nation that is 10 times the size of Japan, as developed, scientifically and technologically capable? Especially one that doesn't even like the USN sailing close to 1000 miles of it let alone have bases stationed within it.

Certainly it seems the US actually prefers western nations isolating themselves from China and while losing out on the huge Chinese market, they can cripple China by totally shutting off cooperation and trade where possible. On a scale it's never been able to do with 2019 trade policies.

If China can genuinely move up the value chain and remain competitive with the best through only access to developing world markets and its own domestic economy, then that's great. Having the rest of the world is better though. I hear China moving up but I don't see it. It's cars are rarely sold in the west. It's planes are only for Chinese and Russian airlines, its electronics have done decently especially telecom and computing but already that share has been threatened. You can't build an economy out of space launches and even there it's not like China is clearly more competitive than the other options. So where are the high value stuff we're going into that isn't being taken away or threatened? When I say threatened, I mean western propaganda being worked to get consumers and cooperative businesses to move away and reject Chinese ones.

I certainly understand where you're coming from. The anti China rhetoric has been dialed up a notch in recent years and seems to be quite high. I think it's reached its height in some countries. May get higher in the US with trump scapegoating China as easy political gains.

I do have a couple thoughts which echos other posted responses.

After this coronovirus is better controlled, the world economy has taken a hit. Europe will be financially strained even more so now that before. USA has basically assed over 6 trillion dollars to prop up the stock market and could add another 2.5 trillion. That's a lot of debt.

In this case, I feel that in terms of macroeconomics, the country that recovers fastest will have first mover advantage. At the end of this event, if China recovers first (which hopefully will be the case), they will have the relatively better economy and generally more money in a world undergoing a recession. In that situation, other countries, even western countries, cannot afford to limit trade with China. In fact many will need China even more than before to get their economy back on track. That's just practical and pragmatic. Thus they will continue to trade with China, try to access Chinese market. Also why nations will likely not sure China. First they cannot sue nations and second, they are hurting themselves if they sue.

I just don't know if China will make any additional demands to trade with nations that need economic help. I doubt they will. That's my 2 cents.

 

[ougoah]

I know China is going to seem like it'll be doing much better in the short term as it appears to have recovered earlier. Western economies are absolutely screwed as more quantitative easing comes in to support them. Inflation will hit hard. Western societies are going to be devastated by the economic woes and then further devastated by the loss of accessible cheap everyday products and increasing costs of doing business as they decouple of China. It's going to be hell for western economies and society for the next few years. No doubt. Trump and the faceless powers want to totally decouple. That's going to hurt everyone but eventually China more. Most here doubt it'll happen at all so we'll see how the pieces fall.

 

[Canuck place]

I know China is going to seem like it'll be doing much better in the short term as it appears to have recovered earlier. Western economies are absolutely screwed as more quantitative easing comes in to support them. Inflation will hit hard. Western societies are going to be devastated by the economic woes and then further devastated by the loss of accessible cheap everyday products and increasing costs of doing business as they decouple of China. It's going to be hell for western economies and society for the next few years. No doubt. Trump and the faceless powers want to totally decouple. That's going to hurt everyone but eventually China more. Most here doubt it'll happen at all so we'll see how the pieces fall.

I don't think it's possible in this globalized world, but even if it is, this will not occur overnight. This would takes years, and with the coronovirus, it would be delayed and take probably close to a decade to implement, if it's even possible. By that time a lot of things can happen to the US and the west. Will be interesting times for the US in the next year or two. I think Trump is making the US more divided, more in debt and racist. Maybe the Simpsons prediction will come true and they will go broke lol, who knows.

 

[carabin13]

Hello, friends! Health to you and your families!

Friends, explain why the US leadership is directing so much negativity at China. The latest messages from Senator Graham are just idiotic.Why this bias? And tell me, what actions will China take in response to these unfriendly statements?

Senator Graham says things that could lead to war!

And such articles appear more and more often.

Thousands of Americans sue China for coronavirus: companies demand $ 8 trillion in compensation

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Could this be a problem?

With respect to China from Russia! Thank you in advance for your response! Спасибо!

 

[duskseeker]

Hello, friends! Health to you and your families!

Friends, explain why the US leadership is directing so much negativity at China. The latest messages from Senator Graham are just idiotic.Why this bias? And tell me, what actions will China take in response to these unfriendly statements?

Senator Graham says things that could lead to war!

And such articles appear more and more often.

Thousands of Americans sue China for coronavirus: companies demand $ 8 trillion in compensation

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Could this be a problem?

With respect to China from Russia! Thank you in advance for your response! Спасибо!

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=510272413187456

let them sue, it's so easy to debunk them. The counter sue would be hilarious.

 

[ougoah]

The class action talk is just talk! At most they will write off debt owed to China which has the effect of destroying US reputation. Everyone else will notice that the US can and will unilaterally write off their debt to you whenever they fancy. No real proof needed. One sided kangaroo courts at most required.

People here don't seem to realise the talk is just there to serve the purpose of destroying the little good will and reputation China has left. Just like they didn't need to prove Huawei is guilty of posing dangers, the talk alone was enough to deal the real damage. Sometimes crying wolf when there isn't one is enough to get the villagers to scatter if that was the only true intention. Well played.

@carabin13 CCP can do and will do nothing to respond to these talks. They can't. Of course they'll never approach any real courts to do this outside of their own stooges. The only way China can make anything positive out of this is to focus on tangibles. They've long ago lost the propaganda war on the world stage.

 

[Deleted member 13312]

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Anticipate this trend to continue and expand.

This has been a growing trend for sometime already. Covid-19 merely gave impetus to it, fact is that rising cost of labour has been an issue which is directly tied with the increased standard of living in China plus putting all your production base in one basket is just asking for trouble when trouble comes.
And it is likely that the 2 billion USD is just the start, with tax breaks and discounts being future incentives.
But it is unlikely that all the companies will relocated back to their countries of origin, just the ones deemded crucial for national interests, countries like Vietnam, Myanmar and others are optimal destination for relocations for precisely the same reasons China had 50 years ago.
The best that China can make do of the situation would be to reinvest in domestic companies to capitalize on the already existing infrastructure.
In short, anyone with the least amount of foresight can see that this is a low hanging fruit that is not long for the world.

 

[AndrewS]

I think this hatred has reached a new high and seems like it will continue to develop as western media aims at demonising China with renewed fervour. This I fear is going to result in reduced consumption of Chinese goods as competitive as they really are. I see sentimental feelings outweigh rational judgements when it comes to Chinese goods more and more. The Chinese product is head and shoulders better value and decent quality yet all comments and attitudes would be making corona virus puns. One can say these people were never going to buy anyway and those are do are the silent majority. Perhaps this is somewhat true but the initiative is working against China here i.e. it can only be worse rather than better than it seems.

As for moving up the value chain. Chinese electronics I buy at EVERY single opportunity but what chances have Huawei really got now for developing 5G outside China and the usual friendly nations? As opposed to Huawei deserving the 5G contracts for just about the entire world like Boeing and Airbus dominated commercial aviation. China is being blockaded from moving up the value chain while it's slowly losing low end manufacturing which I agree is leaving sooner or later as China's aging uneducated population largely retires and its younger workforce is comparatively educated, lower in numbers, and more productive overall. So basically the west is moving towards rejecting China, leaving it with trading nations that are not exactly brimming with wealth to spend.

How I see it is the US has failed to contain China's rise. It's failed to hold a clear and absolute edge in military terms so direct conflict which is its usual go to method is not an option. Decoupling through escalating trade wars is a better alternative to living with a China that eventually becomes as much of a high value player as Japan, except 10 times larger. The US could stifle Japan since it was largely a militarily dominated nation and had to kowtow to US policies like Plaza Accord. Can the US do similar to a CCP controlled nation that is 10 times the size of Japan, as developed, scientifically and technologically capable? Especially one that doesn't even like the USN sailing close to 1000 miles of it let alone have bases stationed within it.

Certainly it seems the US actually prefers western nations isolating themselves from China and while losing out on the huge Chinese market, they can cripple China by totally shutting off cooperation and trade where possible. On a scale it's never been able to do with 2019 trade policies.

If China can genuinely move up the value chain and remain competitive with the best through only access to developing world markets and its own domestic economy, then that's great. Having the rest of the world is better though. I hear China moving up but I don't see it. It's cars are rarely sold in the west. It's planes are only for Chinese and Russian airlines, its electronics have done decently especially telecom and computing but already that share has been threatened. You can't build an economy out of space launches and even there it's not like China is clearly more competitive than the other options. So where are the high value stuff we're going into that isn't being taken away or threatened? When I say threatened, I mean western propaganda being worked to get consumers and cooperative businesses to move away and reject Chinese ones.

Couple of points.

1. Most people don't notice if a product says "Made in China" in the small print. What matters is the brand.

2. China can aspire to a much larger consumer market AND R&D spending than the rest of the combined Western world.
It just takes time for Chinese R&D spending to translate into world-class technology, which COULD replace all foreign technology.

But if China is forced down that route, it will make for a much darker world AND the West would likely lose in such a competition.