Chinese Economics Thread
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I cannot hold my disappointment back with this Xi administration. I maybe need a week to recover from this bitter pil. They fail when confronted with American agression. Huawei sanctions, ZTE sanctions, kidnapping of Meng Wanzhou since 1 December 2018 because Huawei is successfull with 5G, sanctions against numerous Chinese artificial intelligence start-ups, tarrifs, ban on delivery of ASML lithiography and want does Xi Jinping and his administration do?
They sign a totally one-sided 'phase one trade deal' (in reality an unequal treaty and the Wikipedia should be updated to include the most recent setback) with numerous concessions like $200 billion dollars of additional purchases from 1 January 2020 until 31 December 2021, opening up of financial services market, cannot ask foreign companies that set up shop in China to give in return some technology and more. What have they gotten in return? Zero, noppes.
The only thing that is left is that they kneel and give up their economic system like industrial subsidies and industrial plans (Made in China 2025). ICheck media like Global Times and Xinhua. I see no fighting spirit but already articles about a phase to unequal treaty. That is the last thing that Americans seek and they have kneecapped China. Jesus Confucius Maria I want to shoot Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang for the signing of this unequal treaty. Liu He I have no problems with he simply follows orders. Really, a leader like Mao that never buckled under foreign threats was a miracle like you seldom see. Bureaucrats and princelings..... What for message does this send. They embolden not only Americans but also EU and Japan because of severe weakened international reputation that China bends the knee when confronted with long term agression. Damn you Xi, damn you.
They sign a totally one-sided 'phase one trade deal' (in reality an unequal treaty and the Wikipedia should be updated to include the most recent setback) with numerous concessions like $200 billion dollars of additional purchases from 1 January 2020 until 31 December 2021, opening up of financial services market, cannot ask foreign companies that set up shop in China to give in return some technology and more. What have they gotten in return? Zero, noppes.
The only thing that is left is that they kneel and give up their economic system like industrial subsidies and industrial plans (Made in China 2025). ICheck media like Global Times and Xinhua. I see no fighting spirit but already articles about a phase to unequal treaty. That is the last thing that Americans seek and they have kneecapped China. Jesus Confucius Maria I want to shoot Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang for the signing of this unequal treaty. Liu He I have no problems with he simply follows orders. Really, a leader like Mao that never buckled under foreign threats was a miracle like you seldom see. Bureaucrats and princelings..... What for message does this send. They embolden not only Americans but also EU and Japan because of severe weakened international reputation that China bends the knee when confronted with long term agression. Damn you Xi, damn you.
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manqiangrexue
Brigadier
You'll need more than your lifetime to recover because you don't look at results; you listen to screaming and China is never going to select a president who is famous for having a bad attitude driving a big mouth. In 20 or 30 years, when China's economy is larger than America's you'll still curse this moment because Xi Jinping didn't yell loud enough. But the will continue to outpace America's, and China will continue to run a massive trade surplus with America. That's the result Xi needs for China; that's what I look for and that's why I'd take a bullet for Xi instead. So damn yourself and damn that you weren't born a little to the east of China because someone like you would be much better off North Korean than Chinese.
On another note, I think it would be hilarious if American farmers starting a planting fury to meet China's demand and then when harvest time comes, the relationship sours and China cites reasons to cancel the deal, and under Trump, it would be so easy to find justification. Hahahaha That would be the best!
If you actually read what’s written you will see that it’s just another delay tactic by the Chinese team
China should NOT sacrifice its other trading partners for the Americans. China should not sacrifice its credibility with other countries for the Americans. Its better to have a fight with one country than with a whole bunch of countries. And the Americans are a threat to China those other countries are not. So like I said the best solution is to frontload and spread the 200 billion over more than 2 years. Or just try to get out of the deal which I think is bad. China should have never agreed to the 200 billion dollars worth of purchase.
PS the EU is already complaining about the deal and might go to the WTO on this. I hope they succeed!
Took you long enough. I expected your histrionic outburst sooner - it's been half a day since the "unequal treaty" was signed, where were you? Calm down a little before you have a heart attack.
I wonder how many of those farmers are smart enough to know that that's exactly what will happen. Not many, I'll wager. We'll have plenty to laugh about.
That's exactly the way out of this "deal". Keep it going for a year or so while Chinese companies prepare for round 2 of hostilities. After the election just throw the legal fight at the WTO and renege because the agreement isn't WTO compliant.
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China do not need to renege, China will buy what she needs and pay what is reasonable. China do not have to buy if goods and services that are not needed or meet their conditions. If China do not buy 200 billions dollars worth of goods within two years due to lack of market demand, she is not breaking the deal, China has a market economy. Chinese government can not forced its people to buy only from one country ,what are not needed or if suppliers are not reliable or trustworthy. Chinese companies need and wanted to buy high tech staffs worth hundreds of billions of dollars but are refused by the Americans. Chinese companies had said that they would prefer to use American products if supplies are available and secured. So if Trump guarantee and allow these sales, meeting 200 billions $ target in total trade is achievable and good for both countries. Other countries might start to complain thought.
duncanidaho
Junior Member
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Before people get too apoplectic about the $200bn, just ask yourself where is that going to come from?
China currently holds about $1tn of US debt. It could and should pay for these additional purchases with US T-bonds and other similar debt.
Currently China is still somewhat handicapped in its retaliation options against the US because of that debt.
This deal would remove a fifth of that debt without snooking the markets and devaluing China’s remaining Us debt holdings.
That is a key reason why China has been so ‘generous’, and I would expect further big purchases funded by US debt that China holds as further delaying tactics.
Once Chinese holdings of US debt falls to around $500bn, then that becomes a viable economic weapon that can be deployed to devastate the US financial markets, and could potentially even trigger the end of the petrodollar.
This deal is all about making Trump look good so he gets a second term. After he gets re-elected, expect the gloves to come off on the Chinese side.
China currently holds about $1tn of US debt. It could and should pay for these additional purchases with US T-bonds and other similar debt.
Currently China is still somewhat handicapped in its retaliation options against the US because of that debt.
This deal would remove a fifth of that debt without snooking the markets and devaluing China’s remaining Us debt holdings.
That is a key reason why China has been so ‘generous’, and I would expect further big purchases funded by US debt that China holds as further delaying tactics.
Once Chinese holdings of US debt falls to around $500bn, then that becomes a viable economic weapon that can be deployed to devastate the US financial markets, and could potentially even trigger the end of the petrodollar.
This deal is all about making Trump look good so he gets a second term. After he gets re-elected, expect the gloves to come off on the Chinese side.
I think China would like to keep relations civil, but it is unlikely that Trump will act that way.
But realistically, China needs at least another 2 years if they want to take the gloves off.
That is time for the Chinese economy to grow larger, and to really remove American technology content.