Chinese air to air missiles

TK3600 said:

PL-15 I meant. I think PL-16 will completely supersede PL-15, there is no longer any point for PL-15 being made except for export.

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There are over a thousand fighters which can fire off the PL-15 but (probably) hasn't integrated the PL-16 yet. Unless the PL-16 is a significantly superior missile, it's possible that they never get upgraded for that capability. In any case, the supply chain for the PL-15 is well established, and the automated factory making them should be able to churn them out very quickly, so I suspect they'll stay in production for years to come.

Admittedly, it's amusing to think that there can be serious talk about retiring a missile that's only 10 years old. Even more so when the only normal (so not counting the AIM-174 and R-37M) foreign missile that can match it is the AIM-260, and that one isn't even in full production yet.

4Tran said:

There are over a thousand fighters which can fire off the PL-15 but (probably) hasn't integrated the PL-16 yet. Unless the PL-16 is a significantly superior missile, it's possible that they never get upgraded for that capability. In any case, the supply chain for the PL-15 is well established, and the automated factory making them should be able to churn them out very quickly, so I suspect they'll stay in production for years to come.

Admittedly, it's amusing to think that there can be serious talk about retiring a missile that's only 10 years old. Even more so when the only normal (so not counting the AIM-174 and R-37M) foreign missile that can match it is the AIM-260, and that one isn't even in full production yet.

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Meteor (though that's more like half normal), 187(whatever it's serial index is).
AIM-260 doesn't count, it isn't in service; LRIP is LRIP.

4Tran said:

There are over a thousand fighters which can fire off the PL-15 but (probably) hasn't integrated the PL-16 yet. Unless the PL-16 is a significantly superior missile, it's possible that they never get upgraded for that capability. In any case, the supply chain for the PL-15 is well established, and the automated factory making them should be able to churn them out very quickly, so I suspect they'll stay in production for years to come.

Admittedly, it's amusing to think that there can be serious talk about retiring a missile that's only 10 years old. Even more so when the only normal (so not counting the AIM-174 and R-37M) foreign missile that can match it is the AIM-260, and that one isn't even in full production yet.

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We have no idea about stockpile of PL-15.
How hard or easy as well as cost of upgraded/integrating the PL-16.
Or even if there are more versions of the PL-16 (say, the better production tech, could allow for easier production or variants or other versions, one could be much easier to integrate for maybe slightly worse stats than regular PL-16, who knows).

Overall, I still think we can treat it as quite likely that it might actually have stopped production.

Gloire_bb said:

Meteor (though that's more like half normal), 187(whatever it's serial index is).
AIM-260 doesn't count, it isn't in service; LRIP is LRIP.

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The Meteor doesn't have AESA seekers or two-way datalinks. Its one claim to fame is that it has a good terminal velocity, but the dual-pulse motor is probably a better solution for that problem anyways.

4Tran said:

The Meteor doesn't have AESA seekers or two-way datalinks. Its one claim to fame is that it has a good terminal velocity, but the dual-pulse motor is probably a better solution for that problem anyways.

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It has two-way datalink, the problem is Rafale can't use it until F5 standard. Eurofighter and Gripen can, though.
In any case, 187 is a direct match - alongated 8", AESA seeker, dual-pulse missile. There's also israeli export SkySting, but it's smaller and iirc no one deplloyed it yet.

4Tran said:

There are over a thousand fighters which can fire off the PL-15 but (probably) hasn't integrated the PL-16 yet. Unless the PL-16 is a significantly superior missile, it's possible that they never get upgraded for that capability. In any case, the supply chain for the PL-15 is well established, and the automated factory making them should be able to churn them out very quickly, so I suspect they'll stay in production for years to come.

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First off, the "established supply chain" argument can be applied to any obsolete weapons, but you need to replace them at some point. If PL-16 is better in every way, why would you not supercede PL-15? Perhaps in a WW3 setting you might not have the time to make the shift and need to make as much as you can. But we are not there. China can afford to reduce production a few years for shifting to a significantly better weapon, and retool the PL-15 production lines into PL-16. This is the better decision in the long run.

Second there is no reason what can fire PL-15 cannot fire PL-16. Their dimensions are compatible, and we already know some fighters made the transition. And if they somehow cannot (I doubt it), there is still left over stockpiles of PL-15, no one is throwing it away.

4Tran said:

Admittedly, it's amusing to think that there can be serious talk about retiring a missile that's only 10 years old. Even more so when the only normal (so not counting the AIM-174 and R-37M) foreign missile that can match it is the AIM-260, and that one isn't even in full production yet.

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No one is saying it is retired, it will still be in inventory just not actively produced. Mind you PL-12 is made 10 years before PL-15, and was superseded by PL-15. It is nothing unusual to replace missiles designed 10 years ago.

Blitzo said:

My understanding is that PL-16 is not only meant to be much more capable than PL-15, but it may be more efficient and lower cost to produce than PL-15 as well due to advances in tooling and production techniques.

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I'd also expect to see significant cost reductions in the electronics in the PL-16.

In the past 10 years, we've seen AESA radar modules make it into the commercial realm.

4Tran said:

There are over a thousand fighters which can fire off the PL-15 but (probably) hasn't integrated the PL-16 yet. Unless the PL-16 is a significantly superior missile, it's possible that they never get upgraded for that capability. In any case, the supply chain for the PL-15 is well established, and the automated factory making them should be able to churn them out very quickly, so I suspect they'll stay in production for years to come.

Admittedly, it's amusing to think that there can be serious talk about retiring a missile that's only 10 years old. Even more so when the only normal (so not counting the AIM-174 and R-37M) foreign missile that can match it is the AIM-260, and that one isn't even in full production yet.

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At a minimum, it should be trivial to make a PL-16 look like a PL-15, from a software perspective.
So any existing plane which can launch a PL-15 can launch a PL-16.

Whether the launch plane can use all of the capabilities of a PL-16 is another question however.
Eg. The example of the Rafale needing an upgrade before it can use the 2-way datalink on the Meteor AAM

The "make use of full capability of PL-16" argument also apply for PL-15. We know for a fact some older plane could not make full use of PL-15, but can still use it. At minimum PL-15 is better than PL-12 even without the full capability. Same argument apply to PL-16 vs PL-15.

PL-15 will still be used by PLAAF/PLAN-Aviation until (1) they've depleted all inventory and (2) they've upgraded all their fighter jets to adopt PL-16.

PL-15 may still be produced in small scale to meet requirement of export orders, especially to Pakistan AF (J10CE and JF-17), and other operators of JF-17. However, if all foreign users of PL-15 have upgraded their fighter jets to use PL-16, that will end PL-15 production.

Third scenario is PLAAF stop using PL-15 and China stop producing PL-15 right away. All existing inventory of PL-15 be kept in reserve to meet requirement of foreign users. Admittedly, this is very unlikely to happen.