I hope you are right. I was for several years totally not amused during the Trump administration with the Xi administration.
China's war economy production capacity.
- Thread starter ohan_qwe
- Start date
I hope you are right. I was for several years totally not amused during the Trump administration with the Xi administration.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
It is not so much as Chinese leadership blind faith in the sincerity of the west, but the country just have other more urgent priority. Like economy 30 years ago Chinese economy is barely subsistence existence majority of the people just barely has enough to eat. so that is why they keep their head down and work on the economy, infrastructure, mind your own business. And the geo politic was benign but now it is different story. There is heighten competition bring about by western insecurity and advances in chinese technology and economy
Well, from the Chinese perspective, the only conventional war scenario that really matters is Taiwan.
However that will be decided in a few weeks if the US doesn't get involved, given China would have air superiority over all of Taiwan and the ability to track every vehicle.
But if the US does get involved, the US will have to start attacking targets on the Chinese Mainland, because all of the airbases and missiles are located there.
If the US is not successful in this, then Taiwan is still decided in China's favour.
But if the US is successful, then China faces losing control of the skies over its cities.
Nuclear escalation from China is the only logical response.
It's why 230 new nuclear missile silos in China will change everything.
So I doubt there will be the time nor requirement for a full-scale industrial mobilisation in China.
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I was thinking that getting the numbers would scare lesser powers from a fight. Today maybe India thinks that their Rafael and SU30 have a chance but if China had 500 J20 maybe the just surrender kashmir without a fight.
Kashmir would still require an army to wrest control of.
And the Indian Army could deploy enough soldiers to make a battle of it.
But remember that muslim Kashmir is really an issue for Pakistan.
I really do not think, you can apply WW2 style production to a modern major conflict. I think, once the shooting starts, that the intensity would be of a magnitude unimaginable to earlier generations and the main shooting phase of the conflict over in a very short period of time.
I think, that you would have to go with what you have and that once that is gone, you would have had it.
The power of production, really would relate to how quickly either side could replace their losses and be ready for round two.
In terms of China, I suspect that they are already on an effective war footing for production and have been for some time.
The technological complexity of making top end weapon platforms makes war time production expansion to other factories more difficult, even on a simple component basis.
I am sure that there are some forms of even advanced ammunition, where production can be increased and accelerated, but again, I suspect this will be limited.
So, to summerise, I think China's big production advantage will in repairing civil damage and replacing destroyed equipment, far faster than any potential adversary.
I think, that you would have to go with what you have and that once that is gone, you would have had it.
The power of production, really would relate to how quickly either side could replace their losses and be ready for round two.
In terms of China, I suspect that they are already on an effective war footing for production and have been for some time.
The technological complexity of making top end weapon platforms makes war time production expansion to other factories more difficult, even on a simple component basis.
I am sure that there are some forms of even advanced ammunition, where production can be increased and accelerated, but again, I suspect this will be limited.
So, to summerise, I think China's big production advantage will in repairing civil damage and replacing destroyed equipment, far faster than any potential adversary.
I just don't see China at a war footing in terms of military production.
I see the current levels of naval and air force procurement as being sustainable for decades. That is in terms of end-force levels and funding available.
Plus I see army procurement lagging behind
Sustainable, no doubt, but capable of being accelerated? Hmm not so sure.
I think China's military capable Shipyards are working at full stretch and full speed. I believe that China's military aviation factories are also at pretty much full output (more than happy to be corrected if wrong) I dare say the same is correct for high end missile production as well.
War Ships, Combat Aircraft and Advanced Missiles, are not product lines that can be easily duplicated in none specialist production facilities and quality control is no less important than quantity. Bluntly, put, you can't take DF21 blueprints to Mr Wong's Shenzhen Bicycle company and expect viable weapons to come rolling off the production line. You probably can't even do that with a Chip Fabricator plant either. Its not WW2.
I take your point about Land Forces Armour, but I think that simply reflects that a Major Land War is not in the offing. The only real flashpoint is on the Frontier with India and the Himalayas are hardly classic armoured warfare territory.
No, the only real flashpoint is Taiwan and this would be a battle for Navy/Marine, Airforce/Airborne and Tactical Missile Forces.
I see significant extra shipbuilding capacity which could be available if they decided to stop taking civilian orders.
Because aviation is high value to weight and more specialised, you don't build spare production capacity that you don't plan to use.
Remember that China only spends 2% of GDP on the military, as per SIPRI.
There's still scope to increase military spending by 50%. And that still wouldn't match the US which is at 3.5% of GDP
I was of the impression that China could repurpose many civilian / quasi assets at speed.
Like cargo ships and vessels to accommodate batteries of missiles and even GB truck mounted radars.
Also production of Ballistic missiles (IRBMs), UAVs, Howitzer Shells etc. Repurpose civilian airlines to carry missiles ( doable). Construct some Dirty Bombs with nuclear waste, Chemical weapons.
Like cargo ships and vessels to accommodate batteries of missiles and even GB truck mounted radars.
Also production of Ballistic missiles (IRBMs), UAVs, Howitzer Shells etc. Repurpose civilian airlines to carry missiles ( doable). Construct some Dirty Bombs with nuclear waste, Chemical weapons.