China's transport, tanker & heavy lift aircraft - esp. Y-20/YY-20

asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
latenlazy said:
I'll point out that nothing's worse than bringing an obsolete product late to market in this globalized hyper competitive product cycle. When there's no consolation for good efforts and first attempts it's probably better to cut your losses than to sink them in deeper. In China's case, given the intention of the ARJ21 was not to make a profit but to acquire the necessary organizational and knowledge capital to run a domestic industry, a cancellation would not be a waste. You don't learn much about sailing on a sinking ship. You learn other things about ships which may be valuable and useful though.
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2,200 aircraft over 15 years, that's the forecast for the Chinese aviation market, by building your own the whole point is to claim part or portion of that market, the whole reason is to try and slice as much for indigenous contracts, why let Boeing and Airbus get all the profits? China is always competitive and this market is no different

If China manages to get even 10% of the share that' still 220 aircraft, that's still tens of billions of dollars, why let that go? Therefore old design or not, over budget over delayed so what, they need to get it to market and production so they can start making a impact on the domestic market share, thats the real motivation for ARJ21 and C919

Plus between then ARJ21 and C919overdue most 800 orders, thats hell of a incentive, and the reason why this project will never get cancelled, stakes are too high, these projects are high end projects, no chance they will compromise them, whoever suggested a cancellation does not under stand what this is about
 
broadsword

broadsword

Brigadier
asif iqbal said:
2,200 aircraft over 15 years, that's the forecast for the Chinese aviation market, by building your own the whole point is to claim part or portion of that market, the whole reason is to try and slice as much for indigenous contracts, why let Boeing and Airbus get all the profits? China is always competitive and this market is no different

If China manages to get even 10% of the share that' still 220 aircraft, that's still tens of billions of dollars, why let that go? Therefore old design or not, over budget over delayed so what, they need to get it to market and production so they can start making a impact on the domestic market share, thats the real motivation for ARJ21 and C919

Plus between then ARJ21 and C919overdue most 800 orders, thats hell of a incentive, and the reason why this project will never get cancelled, stakes are too high, these projects are high end projects, no chance they will compromise them, whoever suggested a cancellation does not under stand what this is about
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At worst, they just need to go back to the drawing board and redesign the faulty and weak section from scratch.
 
S

Schumacher

Senior Member
Quickie said:
Not saying they're doing a fantastic job. But then, Superjet 100 took about 11 years from approval to first commercial flight.
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Yup, & SSJ100 did it without having to go thru FAA cert & then crashed. Japan's MRJ haven't even flown yet.
I certainly hope no one is suggesting Embraer is better than Russian, Chinese, Japanese in aviation just because they have more orders.
Commercial aviation is a complicated process with high obstacles for newcomers. Even USSR never fully cracked it. ARJ will be worthwhile just for the learning process it allows China to go thru paving the way for C919 & future.

And western suppliers & gatekeepers to the aviation markets will never make it any easier for real potential competitors like China compared to how they treat 3rd tier aviation powers like Embraer & Bombardier who never really threatens them.
China has only in recent years gained enough leverage to bargain with western suppliers. ARJ is a long road China will have to take.
 
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L

Lion

Senior Member
i.e. said:
well...


img04632600x800.jpg
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They already start manufacturing of C919 landing gear using this monster forge press last month.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

(The English translation is quite bad, bear with it)
 
I

i.e.

Senior Member
Lion said:
They already start manufacturing of C919 landing gear using this monster forge press last month.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

(The English translation is quite bad, bear with it)
Click to expand...

No one was interested in the image?

I took it.

it is the C919's IB being built.

===

btw Liebherr has the contract for landing gear systems.
 
asif iqbal

asif iqbal

Lieutenant General
t2contra said:
At worst, they just need to go back to the drawing board and redesign the faulty and weak section from scratch.
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To be honest I don't even think the issues are that serious, I posted the article from flight international in the aviation section and it talked about the redesign work that has come up with ARJ21, because of it the landing gear now needs modification as the old design does not fit the operating parameters, so once they resolve the landing gear issue ARJ21 will be on its way

Also C919 is due to fly next year
 
L

latenlazy

Brigadier
asif iqbal said:
2,200 aircraft over 15 years, that's the forecast for the Chinese aviation market, by building your own the whole point is to claim part or portion of that market, the whole reason is to try and slice as much for indigenous contracts, why let Boeing and Airbus get all the profits? China is always competitive and this market is no different

If China manages to get even 10% of the share that' still 220 aircraft, that's still tens of billions of dollars, why let that go? Therefore old design or not, over budget over delayed so what, they need to get it to market and production so they can start making a impact on the domestic market share, thats the real motivation for ARJ21 and C919

Plus between then ARJ21 and C919overdue most 800 orders, thats hell of a incentive, and the reason why this project will never get cancelled, stakes are too high, these projects are high end projects, no chance they will compromise them, whoever suggested a cancellation does not under stand what this is about
Click to expand...

You're assuming that China won't get any slice of that 2,200 without their own design. In fact, a great slice of value of that 2,200 will be in the parts and supply chain side of things, which China WILL be a part of, with or without their own indigenous design.

No one disagrees about how great the incentives are, but it makes little sense to get something to market if you can't compete with what's being offered. A product like that just becomes a financial sinkhole. Besides, China's interest in domestic aerospace is a lot more ambitious than its own domestic market in the next 15 years. It's looking to export to emerging markets over a much greater time window.

Of those "800", about 300 are for the ARJ21. Furthermore, those orders are not hard commitments and are meaningless if they can't be delivered on time and with the promised performance. At some point airlines will need their demands met one way or another, and will change their orders to do so. I'm not sure anyone has argued that the ARJ21 SHOULD be cancelled at this point, but that doesn't mean cancellation isn't as remote an option as you're suggesting.
 
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