China's Space Program Thread II

[TheRathalos]

There's a weird SSO listing on spacetrack that may be related to Ceres-2, Jiuquan-launched Chinese object in 570km SSO

Separation failure? Late burn S4 failure (like the one in November, but slightly later)?
Or just misidentification.. but if it is one, why put it in 2026-012? Did they put the NROL launch in 011, despite it launching after Ceres? Or did they record the CZ-3B on some kind of orbit?
(for Reference, Alsat is listed in 009; Ceres-1 Tianqi should be 010)

 

[ENTED64]

There's a weird SSO listing on spacetrack that may be related to Ceres-2

Is it really the Ceres-2 launch that's responsible for this one? Maybe I'm reading into it too much but

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says "However, its flight became abnormal soon after liftoff, leading to a crash on the ground, according to footage taken by spectators." I don't have the original footage but that certainly sounds like it failed before it could get anything into orbit.

On the other hand the CZ-3B/E with the Shijian failed but it was the 3rd phase and as gpt pointed out there was a previous satellite which was carried on a rocket that had issues but was still able to get to its intended destination just with using its thrusters which cost it a lot of lifespan.

 

[TheRathalos]

Is it really the Ceres-2 launch that's responsible for this one? Maybe I'm reading into it too much but

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says "However, its flight became abnormal soon after liftoff, leading to a crash on the ground, according to footage taken by spectators." I don't have the original footage but that certainly sounds like it failed before it could get anything into orbit.

On the other hand the CZ-3B/E with the Shijian failed but it was the 3rd phase and as gpt pointed out there was a previous satellite which was carried on a rocket that had issues but was still able to get to its intended destination just with using its thrusters which cost it a lot of lifespan.

Yes most likely option is that they misidentified some other object as this, and they put the NROL launch before despite launching after.

 

[TheRathalos]

Jonathan mcdowell confirms that the TLE of the object the USSF tracked matches with a Jiuquan launch at 4:08 UTC.

Edit: TLE was deleted

 

[ZachL111]

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Interesting article, we have an updated timeline that Jack talks about, at least rumored before Feb 15th. I previously thought March like some others but this could be done potentially end of month or within early Feb, if we are lucky enough.

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We have confirmation that the 19th group of Guowang satellites will still be launched from Hainan on the 19th of January, from the Long March 12.

 

[Michael90]

A proper lesson for the gamblers who blindly rushed into the aerospace sector recently

Who are you talking about? Space launch failures are normal. Even for the most experienced players . Nothing new

 

[NoetherSpudCharge]

It's generally agreed, based on history, that brand new launchers such as Ceres-2 (GSX-2) have much higher failure rates than time-tested systems; which makes sense since if the developer can't improve the reliability of a new system over time, it'd be discarded in favor of new designs. On the other hand, some older systems may have elevated failure rates but still are retained due to various reasons; this appears to be the case for some CZ 2-3-4 upper stages (including the YZ upper stages).

The bright spot for China is that the new generation of CALT and SAST launchers (CZ 5-6-7-8, 12 and hopefully CZ-10 soon) have significantly better reliability (near 100 launches now) than the older hypergolic workhorses; this is especially true if you discount the major YF-77 engine teething issue that CZ-5 had from 2017 until 2019, which by all appearances is now safely in the rear-view mirror (apart from the 2017 CZ-5 failure due to YF-77 under-performance, the only failure for the new launchers was the first flight of CZ-7A, during the height of the COVID outbreak).

So, as the new launchers gradually replace the CZ 2-3-4 series, we can look forward to high reliability and high cadence in the state-run side of Chinese launch industry. I'm particularly looking forward to the CZ-10 and CZ-9 series coming on line over the next few years.

 

[gk1713]

Who are you talking about? Space launch failures are normal. Even for the most experienced players . Nothing new

I am talking about stock gambler here.
In the first two weeks of 2026, the sector reached a boiling point. By January 12, 2026, daily trading volume in the A-share market hit a record 3.64 trillion RMB, with aerospace stocks like China Satellite and Aerospace Electronics seeing gains of over 100–180% in just over a month