China's Space Program Thread II

[Blitzo]

It's pretty disingenuous to say there aren't one company that is disproportionately more capable over the others. Landspace would likely be the first to achieve reuse probably atleast a year or two ahead of others now that their closest competitor just blew their first launch (Not that it matters, even if it works, TL-3 isn't reusable in its current configuration and AFAIK optimistically they'll try reuse in 2027 under the assumption the first succeed). It's enough time for them to mature ZQ-3 to have a huge capacity advantage over everyone else by the time others finally achieve reuse.

It's not disingenuous at all.
I chose my words carefully. When I say "disproportionately more capable" it relates to the part "able to capture all of that demand".

Landspace is able to have a huge advantage and lead over everyone else and for ZQ-3 to have a huge capacity advantage over other commercial players, I fully agree.
But the demand for launches can still have room for multiple other less successful players to get their foot in and scale up as well, because it is unlikely that Landspace (nor the other commercial and state players) will actually be able to soak up all of the demand which exists.

It's the reason why there are still private launch companies such as Rocketlab, who can get contracts, despite having much less capable rockets and despite SpaceX being much more capable. Because the demand is so huge to begin with.

 

[Tomboy]

It's not disingenuous at all.
I chose my words carefully. When I say "disproportionately more capable" it relates to the part "able to capture all of that demand".

Landspace is able to have a huge advantage and lead over everyone else and for ZQ-3 to have a huge capacity advantage over other commercial players, I fully agree.
But the demand for launches can still have room for multiple other less successful players to get their foot in and scale up as well, because it is unlikely that Landspace (nor the other commercial and state players) will actually be able to soak up all of the demand which exists.

It's the reason why there are still private launch companies such as Rocketlab, who can get contracts, despite having much less capable rockets and despite SpaceX being much more capable. Because the demand is so huge to begin with.

I do agree with you that not all demand will be eaten up purely by State owned manufacturer and Landspace, which I've edited my post a bit.

Assuming Landspace doesn't run into major issues with ZQ-3 this year, most of the future capacity for QF/GW will likely be split between ZQ-3 and LM-10B/C series. I'm not saying there isn't any room left, there obviously is with lower end/smaller payloads and rapid response like with the KZ series or possibly GW/QF might want to diverify a bit more with launch providers.

I do also feel like in addition, I suppose there could still be some demand left for medium launch vehicles in non bulk orders, ie smaller constellations or one/two off large payloads etc.

 

[anzha]

China is planning to land people on the Moon — and might beat the United States to it

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[Blitzo]

I do agree with you that not all demand will be eaten up purely by State owned manufacturer and Landspace, which I've edited my post a bit.

I do also feel like in addition, I suppose there could still be some demand left for medium launch vehicles in non bulk orders, ie smaller constellations or one/two off large payloads etc.

It's not like constellations will have to be contracted to specific companies. The limiting factor for initially less successful players to scale up, will be the specifics of how launch demand intersects with launch capacity (including their cost, assessed risk etc), and neither of lines will remain static.

Landspace and CAS and state launchers can have a 2, 3, 5, or 10 year lead in launch maturity and even in technology, and there can still be room for new players to enter and scale if the demand for launch outstrips what the existing companies can provide.

Considering where Landspace, CAS, and the state efforts are currently, and where players like Space Pioneer and other burgeoning commercial players are -- the gap is fairly small. Maybe if in 5 years Landspace is putting out 20-30 launches a year and Space Pioneer have yet to even put up a single launch to orbit then we could probably call it and say Space Pioneer is out... but even then that would be due to Space Pioneer's failures rather than Landspace being able to successfully monopolize the commercial launch market, because you can bet that in 5 years time the demand for commercial launchers will be much much more than 20-30 ZQ-3 sized rockets per year.

China is planning to land people on the Moon — and might beat the United States to it

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What a useless article that doesn't tell us anything new. Essentially just clickbait by stirring up the idea of moon competition.

 

[bsdnf]

Non-reusable rocket is the ticket to market entry, and the Space Pioneer don't even get one.

Don't forget, the TL-2 was only launched once.

 

[sunnymaxi]

Non-reusable rocket is the ticket to market entry, and the Space Pioneer don't even get one.

Don't forget, the TL-2 was only launched once.

Yeah and just last year in October, they have raised around 2.5 Billion RMB in new funding rounds to support its Tianlong-3 rocket and next-generation launch vehicle and engine development.

they keep securing money from investors without any major success so let see what's coming next.

i think money will keep come as in 15th five year aerospace industry is the top priority.

 

[Michael90]

So much for Space Pioneer, they've really fallen off. Ridiculous that a year or so ago, they were seen as the forefront of Chinese private launch provider.

It's really now down to Landspace and CAS Space, everyone else seems to be too far behind technologically to capitalise fast enough.

One failure doesn’t mean the end of the world dude. Happens in space ofen(it’s a high risk field ). So have to learn from mistakes and return back stronger. Not like Landspace you praise has done much either(despite being the first private company in China to set up over a decade ago). Space pioneer is an only a few years old. So give them some time.

 

[gpt]

One failure doesn’t mean the end of the world dude. Happens in space ofen(it’s a high risk field ). So have to learn from mistakes and return back stronger. Not like Landspace you praise has done much either(despite being the first private company in China to set up over a decade ago). Space pioneer is an only a few years old. So give them some time.

They all just need to test/fly more and being open and transparent about progress. After all the 'private' LSP market in China is really just a way to offload launch R&D risk and to move some tech downstream.

Having said that, they also need to demonstrate they're truly iterating and learning from mistakes because failures are more costly for Chinese entities since they have less capital to work with than western counterparts for this break things and move fast approach.

 

[Kalum Pupeter]

So much for Space Pioneer, they've really fallen off. Ridiculous that a year or so ago, they were seen as the forefront of Chinese private launch provider.

It's really now down to Landspace and CAS Space, everyone else seems to be too far behind technologically to capitalise fast enough.

“Space Pioneer” really living up to the name: pioneering entirely new ways not to get to space. At this point it’s less ‘launch provider’ and more ‘gravity appreciation society.’ Honestly feels like they rebranded to “Space Failure” internally and just forgot to update the website. They’re out here doing groundbreaking research on how firmly a rocket can stay attached to Earth.

 

[TheRathalos]

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Some known bloggers are more concerned about workforce/morale impact than the financial one.

It's not a bad looking rocket, shame that most photographers will withold their footage because of the failure; I wish the launch had happened at Hainan, like it originally was supposed to before the 6.30 dynamic fire

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In other news:
Landspace's IPO process has been paused.

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CAS Space is planning to launch their reusable suborbital vehicle (New-Shepard like) in October

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, and is accepting experiments to carry on the inaugural launch.

Onespace, which was the first Chinese private company to (unsucessfully) attempt an orbital launch in 2019, is back in the launcher business, their Linglong-1 Solid-Liquid LV (500kg to 700km SSO) has passed design review, in addition they are funding a new startup involved in RLV R&D

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