China's Space Program Thread II

[ZachL111]

A bit random, but I'm curious, what are we thinking China's launch count will be for 2026?

I do know it's a bit early to speculate but I am just curious what everyone thinks. I think this year we are going to see 85-87 if everything works out, according to NOTAMS I can see.

 

[Daniel707]

The Twin VAB for CZ-10/10A have topped out.

 

[Asug]

Немного неожиданно, но мне интересно, каково, по нашему мнению, количество запусков, которое Китай осуществит в 2026 году?

Знаю, пока рано делать предположения, но мне просто интересно, что думают остальные. Думаю, в этом году, если всё сложится удачно, мы увидим 85-87, судя по НОТАМам, которые я вижу.

100!

 

[TheRathalos]

100!

A bit random, but I'm curious, what are we thinking China's launch count will be for 2026?

I do know it's a bit early to speculate but I am just curious what everyone thinks. I think this year we are going to see 85-87 if everything works out, according to NOTAMS I can see.

I think 100 is a bit too many.

This is my personal count of planned launches for this month based on tour agencies, NOTAM and recent announcements, Blue check currently have NOTAM (Hyperbola had one but was delayed).

-3/12 Zhuque-3 JSLC
-5/12 Kuaizhou 1A JSLC
-6/12 CZ-8A WSLC
-8/12 CZ-6A TSLC
-9/12 CZ-2D JSLC
-9/12 CZ-3B XSLC
-10/12 Lijian-1 JSLC
-7-11/12 Ceres-2 JSLC
-11/12 CZ-12 WSLC
-12/12 CZ-12A JSLC
-early-mid dec Hyperbola 1 JSLC
-17/12 CZ-12H (possibly Gravity-1) Haiyang
-20/12 CZ-5 WSLC
-25/12 Lijian-1 JSLC
-26/12 CZ-8A WSLC
-27/12 CZ-3B XSLC
-29/12 CZ-6A TSLC
-31/12 CZ-7A WSLC
-Late Dec Tianlong 3 JSLC
-Late Dec? Kuaizhou 11 JSLC
-Late Dec? Jielong 3 Yangjiang
-Dec? Zhuque-2E JSLC
-Dec? Ceres-1S Haiyang

In addition there can be an absolute maximum additional 2 CZ-2/4 launches from Jiuquan and Taiyuan, but nothing indicates that so far.
We're at 80 launch attempts (77 successes), this would add up to 100 launches attempts, 103 absolute maximum (97-100 successes), but that requires a very unlikely flawless performance from all the organisations, including 3-4 maiden launches, including commercial companies that are much more likely to face delays, and even CASC's more reliable schedule can face small delays that push end-of-month launches to 2026 (but it's generally a better idea to count chinese launches on a spring festival to spring festival schedule).
High 80s is probably a realistic pessimistic schedule, and mid-90s is a realistic optimistic schedule.

With the 14th launch of Guowang today, China has officially hit 80 launches in 2025, a new record for them, and as I said prior, they’re only the third nation to achieve this mark, ever. Russia/Soviets, the U.S., and now China.

Edit: Here is the mission patch and photos and some more information unique to the launch.

https://imgur.com/a/sMtyn8Q

I believe they mentioned this launch used coal-based kerosene, which is much better for high-frequency launching of rockets. They’re also looking to iterate a new engine soon on this vehicle, B series, and launch once a month next year.

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Here's an article on the Chinese Rocket Kerozene and especially Rocket Coal based Kerozene. It was already used on CZ-12 so HICAL is just harmonizing it over its space center. In fact Coal Based kerozene (which is a project of CASC AALPT) use in launcher had been planned for over a decade since the first CZ-6 launch so this is long overdue.

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Thread on the Yaogan-46's MEO Orbit.