China's Space Program Thread II
- Thread starter Blitzo
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First of all, the literature you posted actually became widely known on the internet largely due to my efforts (I was the first to provide a detailed interpretation). Between 2015 and 2020, I repeatedly mentioned its contents in discussions. During the major debate about CZ-10 and CZ-9 in 2020, to prove that CZ-9 and CZ-10 were not in a competitive or replacement relationship, I posted screenshots of the entire literature along with relevant interpretations. Within a day, the related content spread across the entire aerospace social media sphere.
In the summary section of this literature, Academician Long Lehao made it very clear that, in order to achieve the manned lunar landing program around 2024 (the earliest target milestone, i.e., the first phase), the dual-launch mode of CZ-5DY would be used, possibly supplemented by a single launch of CZ-5A (with a total LTO capacity of 30-40 tons). By 2030 (the second phase), one of the cargo rockets would be replaced by CZ-9.
China’s early lunar landing models were primarily planned based on low Earth orbit docking (similar to the U.S. Ares V back then). That’s why the CZ-5DY and CZ-9 you see are both two-and-a-half-stage configurations, with no three-and-a-half-stage capability (due to rocket height limitations). For low-orbit docking, CZ-5A must be used for the manned mission. However, the diagram you posted also mentions that four different docking modes were actually studied. When adopting the three modes other than low-orbit docking, CZ-5A could no longer launch the manned part, and CZ-5DY would take the lead.
Before 2010, the total scale of China’s first manned lunar landing model was smaller than that of the Apollo program (with a total multi-launch LTO capacity of 45-50 tons). It was roughly comparable to or slightly larger than the Soviet Union’s N1. After 2010, the first manned lunar landing aimed for a total LTO capacity of 50+ tons. With the introduction of CZ-9, the actual total LTO capacity reached 75-85 tons (for heavy payload manned lunar missions). This actually aligns with the lunar mission capacity scale of the Ares V.
As a long-time enthusiast and observer of China’s heavy-lift rockets, I have been tracking the development details of CZ-9 for over 10 years. In the early literature, the diagrams of the 8-meter version of CZ-9 (three-and-a-half-stage configuration) never showed the upper attachment point of the boosters connected to the lower edge of the second stage. Therefore, I made a series of inferences years ago, speculating that due to certain issues (namely the first stage being necessarily short), the upper attachment point of the boosters might be connected to the second stage of the rocket.
This diagram (the first of its kind on the internet) confirms that my inference was valid. Indeed, CZ-9 has considered this design.
The image below is a diagram from the literature on the 8-meter version of CZ-9 that I provided during the major discussion in 2020. It primarily explains why the 8-meter version of the Long March 9 was not selected for the 2017 version of CZ-9. The reason is that the effective payload section of the 8-meter version was not tall enough. It also explains why the first stage of the 9.5-meter CZ-9 was designed with a "spread-out" configuration. Back then, all Chinese space enthusiasts were criticizing the structural design of CZ-9, particularly the "spread-out" first stage. However, no one truly understood the underlying reason for this design choice—except for me. Based on this understanding, I made two predictions: one was that the first stage of subsequent versions of CZ-9 would be lengthened (this has been confirmed between 2022 and 2023), and the other was that part of the boosters might be attached to the second stage (as seen in this recent literature).
If you compare the internal structure of this older 8-meter version of the Long March 9 (the third stage and payload section) with the third stage and payload section of the 8-meter version in this latest literature, you’ll understand why the first stage is shorter and why the upper attachment point of the boosters is connected to the lower part of the second stage.
This is also the reason why I have been critical of Starship. I’m not particularly interested in theoretical payload capacity; instead, I focus on the volume of the payload bay and the ability to release payloads in a single mission. This is the core reason why I don’t hold Starship in high regard. From the evolution of the different configurations of CZ-9, I’ve come to understand the problems that the official design aims to solve, which is why I predicted the future development trends of such configurations (to put it bluntly, why the first stage can’t be too long). Now, I’ve noticed that the first stage of the new Long March 9 has also been deliberately shortened, leaving more vertical space and payload envelope for the payload section.
Do you know what kind of inferences can be made based on this discovery? Observing whether my inferences align with future trends is the joy of my research.
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dPapers and news! Papers and news!
Western based news:
The first rocks from the Moon’s far side are in this geologist’s hands
Papers:
Lunar Science:
A sample of the Moon’s far side retrieved by Chang’e-6 contains 2.83-billion-year-old basalt
A reinforced lunar dynamo recorded by Chang'e-6 farside basalt
Discovery of a highly shocked alkali suite clast in the Chang'e-5 lunar soils
Orbital Mechanics:
Vertical instability of the planar resonant orbits and the application in transfer design to three-dimensional periodic orbits
Long-term orbital evolution and stability surrounding a nonspherical binary system
(sorta)
Short-term evolution and risks of debris cloud stemming from collisions in geostationary orbit
Medical Science:
Fisetin enhances osteoblast differentiation and bone formation under simulated microgravity
Tech dev:
Research in innovative mesh wheel with bionic wheel surfaces and lugs for superior lunar rover performance
Multidisciplinary Design and Metamodel Assisted Optimization for a Telecommunication Satellite with Large-Size Payload
Saturated output feedback control of free-floating space manipulator with fragility-avoidance prescribed performance
Enhancing empirical SRP model for BDS-3 MEO satellites via semi-analytical accelerations analysis
Motion planning of free-floating space robots through multi-layer optimization using the RRT* algorithm
An Experimental Investigation of Microgravity Conditions on FDM-Based In-Space Polymer Additive Manufacturing
Constraint-integrated inverse kinematics method for dual-arm motion
Dynamic modeling and attitude maneuver control on SO(3) for spacecraft with large flexible appendages
Adaptive fault-tolerant attitude control on SO(3) under multiple attitude constraints and finite sequential actuator faults
Review on soft landing buffer systems for planetary exploration
Thermophysical probe design utilizing artificial neural network inversion techniques for lunar rock analysis
Minimal mass design of a tensegrity tower for lunar electromagnetic launching
Space situational awareness systems: Bridging traditional methods and artificial intelligence
Detumbling control of an underactuated tethered satellite system based on a tension regulation method
Computational control framework for tethered space systems using finite element method
Tensile experiment based nonlinear tether element model for tethered space net
Optimization design and mechanism study of ion thruster performance based on CO2/xenon multi-propellant
Aerodynamic robust optimization design of the coaxial rotor for a mars helicopter
Initial attempt: Design and application of microorganism-material interaction test on On-orbit space microgravity conditions
Western based news:
The first rocks from the Moon’s far side are in this geologist’s hands
Papers:
Lunar Science:
A sample of the Moon’s far side retrieved by Chang’e-6 contains 2.83-billion-year-old basalt
A reinforced lunar dynamo recorded by Chang'e-6 farside basalt
Discovery of a highly shocked alkali suite clast in the Chang'e-5 lunar soils
Orbital Mechanics:
Vertical instability of the planar resonant orbits and the application in transfer design to three-dimensional periodic orbits
Long-term orbital evolution and stability surrounding a nonspherical binary system
(sorta)
Short-term evolution and risks of debris cloud stemming from collisions in geostationary orbit
Medical Science:
Fisetin enhances osteoblast differentiation and bone formation under simulated microgravity
Tech dev:
Research in innovative mesh wheel with bionic wheel surfaces and lugs for superior lunar rover performance
Multidisciplinary Design and Metamodel Assisted Optimization for a Telecommunication Satellite with Large-Size Payload
Saturated output feedback control of free-floating space manipulator with fragility-avoidance prescribed performance
Enhancing empirical SRP model for BDS-3 MEO satellites via semi-analytical accelerations analysis
Motion planning of free-floating space robots through multi-layer optimization using the RRT* algorithm
An Experimental Investigation of Microgravity Conditions on FDM-Based In-Space Polymer Additive Manufacturing
Constraint-integrated inverse kinematics method for dual-arm motion
Dynamic modeling and attitude maneuver control on SO(3) for spacecraft with large flexible appendages
Adaptive fault-tolerant attitude control on SO(3) under multiple attitude constraints and finite sequential actuator faults
Review on soft landing buffer systems for planetary exploration
Thermophysical probe design utilizing artificial neural network inversion techniques for lunar rock analysis
Minimal mass design of a tensegrity tower for lunar electromagnetic launching
Space situational awareness systems: Bridging traditional methods and artificial intelligence
Detumbling control of an underactuated tethered satellite system based on a tension regulation method
Computational control framework for tethered space systems using finite element method
Tensile experiment based nonlinear tether element model for tethered space net
Optimization design and mechanism study of ion thruster performance based on CO2/xenon multi-propellant
Aerodynamic robust optimization design of the coaxial rotor for a mars helicopter
Initial attempt: Design and application of microorganism-material interaction test on On-orbit space microgravity conditions
by78
General
I just stumbled on yet another propellant tank supplier today: .
Like Jianyuan and LightYear, R.Space also focuses on supplying propellant tanks to launch providers. It has just completed the first phase of its production plant located next to the Oriental Spaceport in Yantai, Shandong. The plant now has the capacity for making more than 30 propellant tanks per year. The company is currently focusing on improving production efficiency of stainless steel tanks as well as on R&D of composite tanks.
The first large-diameter interstage section from R.Space has rolled off the production line. The section has a length of >5m and a diameter of >4m.
by78
General
Five new projects have broken ground at the Wenchang International Aerospace City. They are all manufacturing plants for various satellite components (electrical interconnects, inter-satellite laser communication terminals, etc.) and will strengthen local industrial supply chain for satellite manufacturing.
