China's Space Program Thread II

[Blitzo]

30000 14 ton leo sar satellites is not reasonable or possible due to the fact that you can only have so many leo satellites in the air and starlink is filling up the sky. So the only way China can not loose out completely in this race is by putting up similar functioning and small satellites in the air. The starlink satellites are about 250kg. So you can get maybe 20 of those satellites in the air per launch.

Well, the ability to have 30,000 14 ton satellites in LEO depends on their design/geometry and station keeping capabilities.

And yes, of course 30,000 14 ton satellites would require 30,000 ton F9 or TL-3 launches, and over three years it would average to 10,000 a year or about 27 launches a day.

But you did ask me about what "good enough" is lol

The question I think worth asking is which private player is going to get involved here that will really drive the push to greater satellite production and rocket production capacity. I can think of one particular company that is currently making money hand over fist from selling AI chips that would be particularly interested in a LEO constellation.

Once you get the technology ready, the next question is how they can increase # of launches per year and production of everything.

It seems to me that the current launch plans are still relatively conservative compared to what spacex is doing. I don't know if that's due to private industry not being involved or what. But certainly getting private money in there would be important.

And then there are the supply chain questions. What is the technology needed for both data transmission satellites and SAR satellites? How quickly can you ramp up the production of components needed for satellite sensors?

I think a combination of private money and state funding and state ambition are both relevant here.

Ultimately, for China they have substantial room to subsidize both "private/commercial" and state launches, in context of potential of private/commercial exploitation of space as well as its strategic/military uses.

Frankly I think if the PRC wanted, they could easily light a fire under the relevant players backsides, to provide substantial funding but more importantly to provide allowance for trading failures for speed.
For example, giving more expectations towards the "move fast and blow things up" in pursuit of gaining substantial test data to rapidly iterate, to enable faster development and faster mass production, instead of aiming to get everything right for the first time in a manner which may take many years to slowly get towards.

For example, instead of carefully doing 10 launches in the space of 5 years as part of a new rocket's development, instead pursuing 10 launches in the space of 1 year to rapidly iterate and learn (of which all 10 may be failures), but if it enables years 2-5 and onwards to enable successful launches of 20-30 a year (with further massive growth afterwards) that would be well worth it.

 

[by78]

A Long March 2C has successfully inserted three satellites into orbit: Egypt Aid-2 remote-sensing satellite for Egypt and two satellites for the

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of EllipSpace. This mission is the 499th flight of the Long March series, one launch away from the 500 mark.

The Egypt Aid-2 (MisrSat-2) project has officially been handed over to Egypt at a ceremony held in Cairo. MisrSat-2 is a remote sensing satellite jointly developed by China and Egypt. Resolution is 2m.

 

[by78]

Song Zhengyu, the chief designer of the Long March 8 launch vehicle said in an interview that if two launchpads are made available in the future with the right configuration (optimizations?), then we can launch one Long March 8 every seven days, or 50 times per year. This is the goal we're working toward, and we're preparing to building a pulse production line that can make 50 Long March 8 vehicles annually.

 

[by78]

CASC has officially put into operation a new laboratory for testing Hall-effect thrusters. The lab is home to several specialized test benches and highly automated testing equipment, which will alleviate the bottleneck of limited testing resources in the development of Hall-effect thrusters.

 

[tphuang]

Well, the ability to have 30,000 14 ton satellites in LEO depends on their design/geometry and station keeping capabilities.

And yes, of course 30,000 14 ton satellites would require 30,000 ton F9 or TL-3 launches, and over three years it would average to 10,000 a year or about 27 launches a day.

But you did ask me about what "good enough" is lol

Well, I was hoping you would be a little more reasonable with your dreams

I think a combination of private money and state funding and state ambition are both relevant here.

Ultimately, for China they have substantial room to subsidize both "private/commercial" and state launches, in context of potential of private/commercial exploitation of space as well as its strategic/military uses.

Frankly I think if the PRC wanted, they could easily light a fire under the relevant players backsides, to provide substantial funding but more importantly to provide allowance for trading failures for speed.
For example, giving more expectations towards the "move fast and blow things up" in pursuit of gaining substantial test data to rapidly iterate, to enable faster development and faster mass production, instead of aiming to get everything right for the first time in a manner which may take many years to slowly get towards.

For example, instead of carefully doing 10 launches in the space of 5 years as part of a new rocket's development, instead pursuing 10 launches in the space of 1 year to rapidly iterate and learn (of which all 10 may be failures), but if it enables years 2-5 and onwards to enable successful launches of 20-30 a year (with further massive growth afterwards) that would be well worth it.

Well a lot of launches will be done by private players in the next few years. It would seem to me that there are multiple constraint point. Rocket launchers doesn’t seem to be the main one.

I see space now like ev industry back in 2018 to 2020. We are about 5 to 7 years from over taking spacex. Just the natural brutal competition in private sector will ensure China private players will come out ahead.

the first g60 & gw satellites probably will be just communications internet satellites but then you build increasingly more complicated satellites with secondary surveillance functions

but for the latter, you also need improvements in radar technology

 

[gelgoog]

Song Zhengyu, the chief designer of the Long March 8 launch vehicle said in an interview that if two launchpads are made available in the future with the right configuration (optimizations?), then we can launch one Long March 8 every seven days, or 50 times per year. This is the goal we're working toward, and we're preparing to building a pulse production line that can make 50 Long March 8 vehicles annually.

About damn time. Those hypergolic rockets should be kicked into the dustbin of history.

 

[by78]

Newly tabulated chart showing total lengths of stay (Y-axis) in space by Chinese taikonauts (names on X-axis). The colors represent various Shenzhou missions.

 

[by78]

The Queqiao-2 (Magpie Bridge 2) relay satellite has been successfully launched by a Long March 8 rocket.

Queqiao-2 (Magpie Bridge 2) relay satellite has successfully entered lunar orbit.

 

[escobar]

View attachment 126067

A famous insider say the satellite of yesterday's launch is the first service satellite of GW constellation

 

[escobar]

PIESAT SAR satellites formation takes shape