Anyway 2024 will be a very busy year for China's private sector. There will be at least 3 new rockets launching in 2024, maybe more.
Space Pioneer: The Tianlong 3 will be capable of putting 17 tons into LEO
Galactic energy: The Pallas-1 will be capable of putting 5 tons into LEO
Deep blue aerospace: The Nebula-1 will be capable of 1 tons to LEO
And they are all designed to be reusable. And of course Landspace and space pioneer will be ramping up the launch rates of their existing rockets.
All the pieces are there. The last 8 years was just for laying the groundwork, development of the engines, training the staff, building up the infrastructure. The mega constellations will be ready to launch, all the factories built, Wenchang launch center will be ready next year too. 2024 will be be when they finally can start ramping up their launch rate and focusing fully on making their rockets reusable.
Hopefully we will see a massive increase in launches and a development towards reusability in a short period of time. That will be the test of this private companies, to see how fast that they can develop. I wonder how fast will it take for them to get towards Spacex level of reusability and launch rate, 1/2/3/4 years? I think it will be faster than most people expect, computing power that was so necessary to land a rocket has only increased since 2016 and all of this rockets are designed from the start to be reusable, even more so than the original Falcon 9 and they have the benefit of hindsight and lessons learned from SpaceX.
It would be amazing if all of this companies had the maiden launch of their rockets in 2024 and by 2025 they managed to reliability land their rockets. We would have in the span of few years, China going from having zero reusable rockets, to having more than America, and suddenly more than doubling the the amount of payload that they can send into space.