China's Security Partnerships?

I'm going to define a "Security Partnership" as an alliance of sorts with a country that will come to China's aid in case of an armed conflict.

Yes, I know that the odds of China entering an armed conflict in the near future is improbable, but it's not impossible either.

So which countries do you guys think China can count on, whether it's support in the form of supplies, equipment, or outright military help, if the proverbial shit hits the fan?

Which countries do you think China should approach and attempt to foster such a partnership, and who in turn would be receptive?

none. china doesn't have any partnership/alliance, or whatever we call it. i think it's for the better. the chinese have to be self reliant and protect themselves, when the sh*t hits the fan no one will come. they need to save themselves.

There are several ways for security partnerships, wishful thinking or not.

1) The way of the super power: USA, Both China and the USA are highly interdependent and faces similar threats, domestic terrorism, religion extremism. Both country control large land mass, have huge populations and a definitive culture which dominates their neighbors. Both the USA and China share common threats and will come up with similar solutions.

2) The way of the great powers: Mainly France, less so Germany and the UK. All of the traditional European great powers have a lot to offer to China in terms of technologies while China have a lot to offer in terms of man power, strategic counterbalance to the USA and to Russia. This is especially true to France which called upon Chinese laborers from the first world war and have a large active Chinese community. Also, France is known to be a rebel to the US lead cause in this and last century. Under US pressure, we have episodes like the Suez channel, the refusal/delay of American help to the french Indochina war. France have also proven that they are willing to step out of line in the American lead coalition, freedom fries - French refusal to condone the US Iraq and Afghanistan invasion?

3) The way of island nation strongholds: Cuba, Fiji, Taiwan, Indonesia. Just like how the UK and Japan is a natural fortress defended by vast bodies of water, history have shown that such nations are almost impossible to conquer by force and is a perfect spring board to project power (the UK was only successfully invaded by the Romans and the Normans, Taiwan was only successfully invaded by the Qing Chinese and the Japanese and Japan (Okinawa) was only successfully invaded by the Americans). Cuba and Indonesia is not particularly friendly to the western world and may be more open to Chinese benevolence, their lack of variety of resource make them dependent on imports which China may guarantee without the strings attached of the western world. While their strategic locations will allow China to project power and be able to influence trade passing through both the Pacific and the Atlantic meaning China can put some hurt on any western nation if the need arises.

no country will support china

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Alliances like NATO are rare and outdated anyway, temporary alliances and small scale conflicts characterize the nature of modern geopolitics.

It depends on the circumstances. In many local or regional conflicts, China would be able to manage very nicely on its own.

If it were something larger than anybody that discounts Russia and the SCO is frankly a fool. Neither country has an interest in seeing the other defeated and would make sure that the Status Quo is maintained.

In some conflicts China would undoubtedly join with some of its neighbours if they were attacked by more powerful counties. These would of course be its Nuclear neighbours and the main rationale for joining in would be to add China's overwhelming conventional forces to the fight and so prevent the neighbour having to resort to nuclear weapons to protect its territorial integrity.

SampanViking said:

It depends on the circumstances. In many local or regional conflicts, China would be able to manage very nicely on its own.

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The same thing could be said of the US, yet they almost always seek an "alliance" before going into a war.

Going into a military conflict with allies mitigates your own resource spending, and more importantly, gives more legitimacy to your actions.

If it were something larger than anybody that discounts Russia and the SCO is frankly a fool. Neither country has an interest in seeing the other defeated and would make sure that the Status Quo is maintained.

In some conflicts China would undoubtedly join with some of its neighbours if they were attacked by more powerful counties. These would of course be its Nuclear neighbours and the main rationale for joining in would be to add China's overwhelming conventional forces to the fight and so prevent the neighbour having to resort to nuclear weapons to protect its territorial integrity.

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Perhaps, but I was more interested in knowing which countries would be willing to help China, instead of the other way around.

Interesting that you bring up SCO and Russia. As I understand it, SCO was created for counter-terrorism purposes, and Russia doesn't exactly have stellar record for supporting China in wars (*cough* Korean War *cough*). How effective would either be as Security Partners?

SampanViking said:

It depends on the circumstances. In many local or regional conflicts, China would be able to manage very nicely on its own.

If it were something larger than anybody that discounts Russia and the SCO is frankly a fool. Neither country has an interest in seeing the other defeated and would make sure that the Status Quo is maintained.

In some conflicts China would undoubtedly join with some of its neighbours if they were attacked by more powerful counties. These would of course be its Nuclear neighbours and the main rationale for joining in would be to add China's overwhelming conventional forces to the fight and so prevent the neighbour having to resort to nuclear weapons to protect its territorial integrity.

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The problem with the SCO right now is that it is neither a cohesive organization nor a military one, despite the fact that Russia wanted to make it an Eastern NATO. China is only interested in strengthening the economical ties of the member states including India and Pakistan (albeit as observers). How could such an organization stand up to external aggression if conflicts amongst memberstates have yet to be resolved?

Who might help China would depend largely on who China is fighting.

If China and India came to blows, then there is a good chance Pakistan may choose to also get involved. If China and the US went to war over Taiwan and South korea or Japan also got involved, North Korea may join the war and open up a land war to divert US resources, as if China is defeated, the US and friends might think they can take NK as well.

plawolf said:

Who might help China would depend largely on who China is fighting.

If China and India came to blows, then there is a good chance Pakistan may choose to also get involved. If China and the US went to war over Taiwan and South korea or Japan also got involved, North Korea may join the war and open up a land war to divert US resources, as if China is defeated, the US and friends might think they can take NK as well.

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All true, but such involvement would stem largely out of a sense of self-preservation or existing grudges.

What if NK was invaded, and China decided to get involved, who would be willing to help China?

What if Malaysia or Indonesia carried out another ethnic cleansing against Chinese, and China decided to send in troops, who else would be willing to join in?