China's SCS Strategy Thread

[lcloo]

The Philippines’ economy and politics are dominated by a handful of elite families — dynasties that control both government positions and major industries. These clans include the Marcoses, Villars, Ayalas, Sys, and others, whose influence spans banking, real estate, retail, utilities, and national politics. Their entrenched power makes reform difficult and perpetuates inequality between the elites and the common people.

The current Philippines model is a "Predatory State System". i.e. One elite family fighting against another for political power and economic control. Corruption and power abuse is the norm.

The statement "Counties like Philippines are only getting stronger over time." is illusional in the face of China.

 

[ansy1968]

Philippines is a poor country that has been economically outclass by most of their neighbors for quite sometime, Vietnam in manufacturing, Malaysia in high tech, Indonesia and so on. The US has done very little to improve the country considering that treat them like a colony. They can't afford a big military to compete with a large military power like China and is unfair to ask them to do so, they will have to sacrifice development money. And even less they can't afford to become the Ukraine of the pacific, any disruption will be a death sentence for a country without land borders. The easy solution for them is to establish a framework with China. The problem is that the current government is puppet of the stooges in the US.

The US will not voluntary gave up his/her colony for nothing, being a good student of UK, its better to established and engineered an oligarchy Raj rather than dirty their hand in running their colony. It's a perfect template, instead of rebuilding the Philippine economy which the American destroyed during WW2 (especially Manila which they leveled) why not loan them the money with high interest, take the national resources as collateral and exploit them. Rebuilding the gov't institution, especially the security apparatus like the PC (Philippine Constabulary) an extension of American power, retaining military bases and introducing an alien constitution. What you get is a perfect Brown brother of the American, just like the Indians.

 

[sndef888]

Honestly this is a perfect time to do reclamation on Huangyan Dao.

America is not going to gaf about Philippines when it's still focused on ending the Iran war in preparation for midterms. And there's an upcoming meet than Trump won't want to compromise.

With Yongxing Island and Yongshu Island forming a triangle China will have a much stronger position and a base right in front of Manila. And opens up the possibility of larger scale permanant basing.

Bide your time but sometimes you just have to recognise when an opportunity arises to significantly increase your hard power.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Honestly this is a perfect time to do reclamation on Huangyan Dao.

America is not going to gaf about Philippines when it's still focused on ending the Iran war in preparation for midterms. And there's an upcoming meet than Trump won't want to compromise.

With Yongxing Island and Yongshu Island forming a triangle China will have a much stronger position and a base right in front of Manila. And opens up the possibility of larger scale permanant basing.

Bide your time but sometimes you just have to recognise when an opportunity arises to significantly increase your hard power.

China's SCS Strategy Thread

Possibly something happening at Scarborough. It's unclear whether this is still ongoing or related to previous reports of something at the shoal. The Philippines has accused China of building an artificial structure at the hotly contested Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. Citing aerial...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

China's SCS Strategy Thread

It should be a surveying platform Just so, a scientific survey. Presumably, further experiments will gradually normalize their presence at the shoal. The research mission – which began on May 20 – involved deploying a floating platform for environmental monitoring and sampling, the Chinese...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

China's SCS Strategy Thread

Every state by its very nature will maximize its own interest, power and prestige while minimizing its rivals. That is the whole premise of realist theory of geopolitics. Somehow cpc is different is completely not true and seems naive thinking. Anyways, as I said, in historical hindsight China...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

 

[Wrought]

Presence in and around Scarborough has increased steadily in recent years, with no sign of stopping. Almost like they have a plan which is being deliberately executed on a schedule, while some idiots whine from the peanut gallery.

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[ACuriousPLAFan]

Honestly this is a perfect time to do reclamation on Huangyan Dao.

America is not going to gaf about Philippines when it's still focused on ending the Iran war in preparation for midterms. And there's an upcoming meet than Trump won't want to compromise.

With Yongxing Island and Yongshu Island forming a triangle China will have a much stronger position and a base right in front of Manila. And opens up the possibility of larger scale permanant basing.

Bide your time but sometimes you just have to recognise when an opportunity arises to significantly increase your hard power.

I'd say that doing this requires the right timing and the exact right circumstances, not just opportunity.

The Philippines holds the Chairmanship of ASEAN this year, and we do know that despite China and ASEAN being each other's largest trading partners, China does have simultaneous maritime disputes with several ASEAN members in the South China Sea, not just the Philippines.

If Beijing's goal is solely to target Manila + providing stern warnings to the Jai Pagpag's backers (namely the US, Japan, and Australia) through such maneuvers, then choosing the wrong time to do so might actually cause a significant unintended diplomatic crisis with the rest of the ASEAN members that have maritime disputes with China in this region.

 

[votran]

I'd say that doing this requires the right timing and the exact right circumstances, not just opportunity.

The Philippines holds the Chairmanship of ASEAN this year, and we do know that despite China and ASEAN being each other's largest trading partners, China does have simultaneous maritime disputes with several ASEAN members in the South China Sea, not just the Philippines.

If Beijing's goal is solely to target Manila + providing stern warnings to the Jai Pagpag's backers (namely the US, Japan, and Australia) through such maneuvers, then choosing the wrong time to do so might actually cause a significant unintended diplomatic crisis with the rest of the ASEAN members that have maritime disputes with China in this region.

can china economy and internal instability even withstand the backlash from US/west/hater the moment china military shooting someone first ?

if it can't then im pretty sure china gonna be so "peaceful and neutral" for the next 100 years atleast

 

[ACuriousPLAFan]

can china economy and internal instability even withstand the backlash from US/west/hater the moment china military shooting someone first ?

if it can't then im pretty sure china gonna be so "peaceful and neutral" for the next 100 years atleast

Are we dealing with the China of 2006 or 2026?

In addition, I have never suggested that China must go all-in gun-blazing when it's time to conduct such missions.

 

[votran]

Are we dealing with the China of 2006 or 2026?

In addition, I have never suggested that China must go all-in gun-blazing when it's time to conduct such missions.

im talking with the china of even 2036 2046 let alone 2026

anyway china technically control that shoal since 2012 (14 years ago) , if non-gun blazing way work , that shoal should turn into a mini naval base with missile and airstrip like other rock china control by now

yet after 14 years that shoal still a fishing boat parking lot at best , and still require constant PLA navy , coast guard patrol

 

[MortyandRick]

can china economy and internal instability even withstand the backlash from US/west/hater the moment china military shooting someone first ?

if it can't then im pretty sure china gonna be so "peaceful and neutral" for the next 100 years atleast

Pretty useless assessment.

Why does China even need to shoot first? They have escalation dominance. They can patrol and do whatever they want around the island.

They can wait for others to shot first then fire back if they want.

Also you overestimate the importance of certain SEA countries to the west. You think the US would enter a war against China for them? Lol hilarious.

They can try to sanction China, but they already tried that a failed. So how is this any different. If they can sanction China to oblivion, they will have don't it already, they already made up their own excuses.