China's SCS Strategy Thread

[manqiangrexue]

Every state by its very nature will maximize its own interest, power and prestige while minimizing its rivals. That is the whole premise of realist theory of geopolitics.

Somehow cpc is different is completely not true and seems naive thinking.

Anyways, as I said, in historical hindsight China not pressing its SCS claims more vigorously while it had the chance will be seen as a blunder.

Counties like Philippines are only getting stronger over time.

We always have the chance, which does not depend on America's presense or absense, and the further we move into the future, the greater that chance because China is the only country growing meaningfully stronger. American strength wanes in the region in comparison and Filipino "strength" is a non-factor. The only blunder is you thinking that China wants to pull a fast one while the US is gone while in actuality, the whole point is to demonstrate to the world how useless the US is in Asia.

 

[votran]

It has been explained to you, many times by now.
The CPC is not intent on empire and does not act according to whim.
This is one of the reasons why they literally ARE the good guys in this 21st century.

how to clearly show you start believe in your own nation propagranda to everybody else just like alot of american thinking they are chosen one destiny to be world/humanity leader

More feeble weak statements by China. What have they done as a retaliation against PH for instigating the ship collision that likely killed crew?

Absolutely nothing.

China not punishing PH for its numerous transgressions despite having wide leeway from a distracted US will be a historic mistake.

that the only thing china can do at the moment , right now china economy and social stablity , political stability , population thinking ...totally not yet build or be train to accept and endure aggressive action + backlash even in case chinese gov want to be more aggressive

no strong consumer economy , petro yuan not yet success enough, yuan isn't even the world 2nd valuable reverse currency yet , ability to control atleast half of the world financial transaction no where to be seen
(there are the key things china must have in order to shield the countries from US/western/allied economic backlash)

without them ....china can't do anything ....because the moment they bomb someone ....countless chinese people from top to bottom gonna have their life and their wealth crash and burn ....those people gonna become serious rebels threat to CCP one party rule power

chinese population (specially in the wealthy coastal area) also show no sign of accept and willing to suffer (their life and wealth get rekt) for the greater good

US can go around bomb any weak nations dare to stand in their way because they are very powerful ...

when they bomb other countries ...their population face almost zero economy backlash threat from ...the rest of the world.....include china

when people life and wealth didn't crash and burn by their own gov aggressive military action oversea ....best thing they do is trash talk president and his cabinet on internet .....that it .

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Every state by its very nature will maximize its own interest, power and prestige while minimizing its rivals. That is the whole premise of realist theory of geopolitics.

Somehow cpc is different is completely not true and seems naive thinking.

Anyways, as I said, in historical hindsight China not pressing its SCS claims more vigorously while it had the chance will be seen as a blunder.

Counties like Philippines are only getting stronger over time.

The Philippines is getting stronger over time? In what planet?

 

[tamsen_ikard]

how to clearly show you start believe in your own nation propagranda to everybody else just like alot of american thinking they are chosen one destiny to be world/humanity leader


that the only thing china can do at the moment , right now china economy and social stablity , political stability , population thinking ...totally not yet build or be train to accept and endure aggressive action + backlash even in case chinese gov want to be more aggressive

no strong consumer economy , petro yuan not yet success enough, yuan isn't even the world 2nd valuable reverse currency yet , ability to control atleast half of the world financial transaction no where to be seen
(there are the key things china must have in order to shield the countries from US/western/allied economic backlash)

without them ....china can't do anything ....because the moment they bomb someone ....countless chinese people from top to bottom gonna have their life and their wealth crash and burn ....those people gonna become serious rebels threat to CCP one party rule power

chinese population (specially in the wealthy coastal area) also show no sign of accept and willing to suffer (their life and wealth get rekt) for the greater good

US can go around bomb any weak nations dare to stand in their way because they are very powerful ...

when they bomb other countries ...their population face almost zero economy backlash threat from ...the rest of the world.....include china

when people life and wealth didn't crash and burn by their own gov aggressive military action oversea ....best thing they do is trash talk president and his cabinet on internet .....that it .

So basically you are saying is that China is so weak that it has no choice but to keep its head down and bide its time.

I don't think China is that weak anymore. Maybe the Chinese leaders and Chinese public have that perception about themselves.

Over Arrogance can be a weakness, but being timid, having inferiority complex and not pouncing in the right moment is also a weakness. Sadly, Chinese leader have that weakness.

The Philippines is getting stronger over time? In what planet?

Compared to 5 years ago, they are significantly stronger in terms of military with all the new hardware they r getting from US, Japan, India and so on. They r getting huge military hand outs and a lot of it is yet even delivered yet, so over time they will have much more military hardware than before.

In this age of drones and missiles, Navy ships are much more weaker than the shore. China will have hard time keeping its naval ships safe near scarborough shoal which is just 200 miles from Philippino shores. They can shoot supersonic anti-ship missiles now and will also get huge influx of drones. Let's not forget all the underwater and ship based drones that are buying or getting it for free as aid.


China's ability to defend in places like Scarborough shoal gets significantly more difficult over time due to missiles and drones. PH GDP is also growing due to catch up growth and they do have a large population of 100 million.

The bottomline, even if China wins in a shooting war against the PH, its losses will only increase over time as PH gets stronger.

 

[manqiangrexue]

@votran @tamsen_ikard If you two fused into one person with the average opinion of what you both just wrote, we can have a semblance of normalcy on this thread. Try this and keep your fingers straight unless you like being really really fat:

 

[UmbraPenumbra]

So basically you are saying is that China is so weak that it has no choice but to keep its head down and bide its time.

I don't think China is that weak anymore. Maybe the Chinese leaders and Chinese public have that perception about themselves.

Over Arrogance can be a weakness, but being timid, having inferiority complex and not pouncing in the right moment is also a weakness. Sadly, Chinese leader have that weakness.



Compared to 5 years ago, they are significantly stronger in terms of military with all the new hardware they r getting from US, Japan, India and so on. They r getting huge military hand outs and a lot of it is yet even delivered yet, so over time they will have much more military hardware than before.

In this age of drones and missiles, Navy ships are much more weaker than the shore. China will have hard time keeping its naval ships safe near scarborough shoal which is just 200 miles from Philippino shores. They can shoot supersonic anti-ship missiles now and will also get huge influx of drones. Let's not forget all the underwater and ship based drones that are buying or getting it for free as aid.


China's ability to defend in places like Scarborough shoal gets significantly more difficult over time due to missiles and drones. PH GDP is also growing due to catch up growth and they do have a large population of 100 million.

The bottomline, even if China wins in a shooting war against the PH, its losses will only increase over time as PH gets stronger.

You overestimate my country and our military a bit too much. In a way the Philippines is somewhat like India just a bit more silent and a lot less boastful with zero war experience besides fighting domestic terrorists and NPAs with so-so effectiveness. If you just listen to the very details from interviews of officers and reports of how they do stuff, you would find some of the finer details a bit questionable, technologically and doctrinally backwards. It sends a message that we're entirely dependent on foreign allies on basic stuff like initiative, training and morale. The popularity of Cardo Dalisay and FPJs action dramas pretty much encapsulates this very issue, cause it's all projection and a fantasy.

 

[Dante80]

how to clearly show you start believe in your own nation propagranda to everybody else just like alot of american thinking they are chosen one destiny to be world/humanity leader

Again, I'm not Chinese.

Every state by its very nature will maximize its own interest, power and prestige while minimizing its rivals. That is the whole premise of realist theory of geopolitics.
Somehow cpc is different is completely not true and seems naive thinking.

The CPC fundamentally does not view geopolitics and the world in general as a zero sum game. And it has aptly demonstrated this, time and again.

The fact that you have trouble understanding this, is a priori limiting your comprehension of the subject at hand.

Read more Xi.

 

[bsdnf]

Besides the inherent technical difficulties of land reclamation at Huangyan, ensuring the safety of personnel stationed there does indeed another obstacle to its progress. It would effectively hostage the personnel without providing any corresponding military advantage. It's more like a political bargaining chip.

Therefore, if the reclamation project is implemented, it implies that the top leadership has essentially decided that Sino-Philippine relations will not improve in the long run, and cannot expect another Duterte willing to ease tensions. Even at so many direct and indirect costs, pressure must be actively exerted.