China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Wrought]

Possibly something happening at Scarborough. It's unclear whether this is still ongoing or related to previous reports of something at the shoal.

The Philippines has accused China of building an artificial structure at the hotly

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in the

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Citing aerial monitoring, the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea, an inter-agency body overseeing Manila’s maritime strategy in the South China Sea, said on Tuesday that a floating platform six metres (19.7 feet) wide and six metres long was located within the shoal. The structure appeared to be an antenna and individuals were seen on board, the task force said.

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[tamsen_ikard]

Possibly something happening at Scarborough. It's unclear whether this is still ongoing or related to previous reports of something at the shoal.

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So boring. If China had the guts, they would start building island on scarborough and thomas shoal.

 

[Wrought]

So boring. If China had the guts, they would start building island on scarborough and thomas shoal.

So stupid. Relying on guts instead of brains is exactly how the US got itself into the mess with Iran. Marcos is already way underwater in the polls, at ~20 points behind Sara Duterte. Only a fool overturns a status quo that favors himself. Now is not the time for big dramatic moves; it's the time for patience until 2028 elections.

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[tamsen_ikard]

So stupid. Relying on guts instead of brains is exactly how the US got itself into the mess with Iran. Marcos is already way underwater in the polls, at ~20 points behind Sara Duterte. Only a fool overturns a status quo that favors himself. Now is not the time for big dramatic moves; it's the time for patience until 2028 elections.

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China's claims and standing in SCS should NOT depend on Who is in Power in Philippines or Japan or any other place. It should rely on its own current power, situation and initiative. US is now occupied with Iran and moves in the western hemesphere. On the other hand, Japan and PH are probably the most hostile they have ever been. This is the perfect opportunity and justification to make lasting moves in the SCS. China building an island will be permanent. Presidents will keep changing in the PH.

China not taking the initiative and putting its line in the sand will be seen as a timid and likely foolish move in the future. They are losing their chance not only to punish the Phillipines for its transgressions but also losing the opportunity that Iran war provides.

 

[Wrought]

China's claims and standing in SCS should NOT depend on Who is in Power in Philippines or Japan or any other place. It should rely on its own current power, situation and initiative. US is now occupied with Iran and moves in the western hemesphere. On the other hand, Japan and PH are probably the most hostile they have ever been. This is the perfect opportunity and justification to make lasting moves in the SCS. China building an island will be permanent. Presidents will keep changing in the PH.

China not taking the initiative and putting its line in the sand will be seen as a timid and likely foolish move in the future. They are losing their chance not only to punish the Phillipines for its transgressions but also losing the opportunity that Iran war provides.

Marcos being in power is a major—if not the major—reason why the Philippines is hostile. Removing him and his hostility by doing nothing is a far better idea than running the risk of any bold action backfiring at the polls. Nearly guaranteed success vs significant risk of unintended second-or-third-order consequences. It doesn't take a genius to understand the logic behind the patient and steady approach which has patiently and steadily accrued gains for years now. Why build another island base when the current ones are still underutilized? Did you miss the prior conversation?

The laws of physics and chemistry do not selectively spare one island or reef over another. Aviation equipment faces the same harsh natural environment and the same high rate of wear in all these places. Mischief Reef and Subi Reef do not have fighter aircraft while Woody Island does simply because Woody Island is closer, which makes support and maintenance somewhat easier. That is all there is to it. Even so, the aviation units on Woody Island are only small detachments rotating in and out. Large, fully organized units are not permanently stationed there.

The Spratly Islands are simply too far away, so far that many netizens living in inland provinces have no intuitive sense of the distance. Even the distance between the three airfields at Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef, and Mischief Reef, all within the Spratly Islands, is already nearly comparable to the distance from Woody Island in the Paracels to Hainan Island.

China's SCS Strategy Thread

From the lack of tire marks on the runway, it seems like the SCS air bases barely ever gets used. There doesn't seem to be any fighter or otherwise brigades based in any of the SCS islands, it just seems like every few months or so a brigade gets temporary rotated here for a few days or weeks...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

And to be blunt, your opinion on what is or is not timid or foolish is immaterial. You—thankfully—aren't calling the shots in Beijing.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Marcos being in power is a major—if not the major—reason why the Philippines is hostile. Removing him and his hostility by doing nothing is a far better idea than running the risk of any bold action backfiring at the polls. Nearly guaranteed success vs significant risk of unintended second-or-third-order consequences. It doesn't take a genius to understand the logic behind the patient and steady approach which has patiently and steadily accrued gains for years now. Why build another island base when the current ones are still underutilized? Did you miss the prior conversation?

China's SCS Strategy Thread

From the lack of tire marks on the runway, it seems like the SCS air bases barely ever gets used. There doesn't seem to be any fighter or otherwise brigades based in any of the SCS islands, it just seems like every few months or so a brigade gets temporary rotated here for a few days or weeks...

www.sinodefenceforum.com

And to be blunt, your opinion on what is or is not timid or foolish is immaterial. You—thankfully—aren't calling the shots in Beijing.

Phillipines hostility comes from its people and their delusions of race hierarchy. Their extreme America worship. Their hatred of the China's rise. Before Marcos there was Aquino. Marcos is only there for 1 term, after that there will be Teodoro or someone else. There will always be some anti-China president because that is the nature of Phillipines worldview.

So, no, being nice and doing nothing is not going to make Phillipines change their entire worldview and give up their SCS claims. Also don't forget China was at its most pro-active phase, building islands when Duterte got elected. So whether China was nice or hostile did not matter at all when it comes to who got elected.

And as for who calling the shots, just cause people in Beijing "are calling the shots" doesn't mean they are always making the best decision. That's why we call it out and point out why they are wrong.

 

[Wrought]

Phillipines hostility comes from its people and their delusions of race hierarchy. Their extreme America worship. Their hatred of the China's rise. Before Marcos there was Aquino. Marcos is only there for 1 term, after that there will be Teodoro or someone else. There will always be some anti-China president because that is the nature of Phillipines worldview.

So, no, being nice and doing nothing is not going to make Phillipines change their entire worldview and give up their SCS claims. Also don't forget China was at its most pro-active phase, building islands when Duterte got elected. So whether China was nice or hostile did not matter at all when it comes to who got elected.

And as for who calling the shots, just cause people in Beijing "are calling the shots" doesn't mean they are always making the best decision. That's why we call it out and point out why they are wrong.

And the pushback was much less during the island-building, because Duterte did not kick up a huge fuss the way Marcos has done. Wow, it's almost like the president matters when it comes to deciding how much of a problem the Philippines will be. Almost like things are easier when there's a less hostile leader in Manila. Who knew? Not you, apparently.

You might think they are wrong, but your opinion is worthless. You are not qualified to judge which decision is best. As you've demonstrated here already.

 

[manqiangrexue]

China's claims and standing in SCS should NOT depend on Who is in Power in Philippines or Japan or any other place. It should rely on its own current power, situation and initiative. US is now occupied with Iran and moves in the western hemesphere. On the other hand, Japan and PH are probably the most hostile they have ever been. This is the perfect opportunity and justification to make lasting moves in the SCS. China building an island will be permanent. Presidents will keep changing in the PH.

China not taking the initiative and putting its line in the sand will be seen as a timid and likely foolish move in the future. They are losing their chance not only to punish the Phillipines for its transgressions but also losing the opportunity that Iran war provides.

China will one up that and say that actions in the SCS should NOT depend on the US. Regardless of whether they are there, China will still behave with the amount of diplomacy vs force as we feel appropriate for the Philippines. Becoming more aggressive in America's absense as you suggest sends out exactly the wrong message, which is that American presense deters Chinese aggression and China is put in check by the US. This is NOT the wolf's chance to play now that the tiger is away. We are the king of this mountain and we will do as we deem fit regardless of whom is dancing around us or not.