China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
Living there and knowing something about geography ( not to mention geopolitics ) are two very different things.
kwaigonegin
Colonel
Just curious if we have any members from Taiwan here. Would be great to hear from you guy's POV.
While it's human nature for most folks to congregate amongst like minded individuals, it's always good to see and hear views from all sides.
While it's human nature for most folks to congregate amongst like minded individuals, it's always good to see and hear views from all sides.
And you act like you have amply demonstrated both. You keep talking about "geography" and "geopolitics' please show and tell how exactly is the PH can meaningfully make an iota of difference with as a force multiplier for the U.S.? This recent actions of bases/basing in the PH have been factored already in many of American war games some of which are readily available for you to freaking read.
You have not provided any convincing argument to support your insistence whatever it is you're trying to insist with any cogent argument other than trying to show the close proximity of the bases recently selected in the PH to Taiwan. And if the PH do elect to enter the fight, the logical thing to conclude is that the PH is a party to the conflict which will be then subjected to immense bombing and targeting by the PLAN/PLAAF/PLGAF and devastation to that country's capital (MANILA) which last time I checked holds about 30% of that country's economy. The rest are from their tourism which would be utterly devastated and from that country's Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW) remittances that supplies that country's $$ reserves.
Do you know the current force structure of the Philippine military? their military readiness? their training for high intenstiy/tempo warfare? Every relevant and objective defense sites you can find ranks the PH military near or at the very bottom of military power full stop. And in your indominable opinion all of a sudden the PH is going to magically be able to muster some credible defense or offense against China/PLA that's been prepping, investing, practicing for such operation (Taiwan reunification/ 1st island chain breakout) for decades? You think the PH is Ukraine of ASEAN? what's the industrial strength of the PH? genius explain that?
So genius, please do tell me where am wrong and educate me on your Phd level understanding of geopolitics since essentially you're saying that you're better at me in all those areas.
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You can tell by the user name he doesnt put much thought about anything and is just emotional. bet his password is something like 123456 or something. Anyways the PH understand war propaganda and not war. An american colleague of mine racistly said, these are the dumbest biggest whores in SE Asia.
What Philippines did here is seriously against China's interest and that needs to be known to their gov't through all legitimate means including significant drawdown on Chinese investment. China also needs to make it clear to Marcos that in the event of a conflict, China will destroy all EDCA bases
On the other hand, this really won't make a different in a westpac conflict. Anyone who thinks it does probably haven't looked it hard enough. In the event of a conflict, China can easily blockade Philippines if it goes further against Chinese interests.
Discussion on China-PH relations based on the most recent and ongoing visit of China's FM Qin Gang in the PH for bilateral talks due the simmering tensions created with the opening of 4 new bases in the PH one of which is placed close to Taiwan. At the same time, the U.S. is conducting what is said to be the largest ever training exercise with the PH military called the Balikatan (Shoulder-to Shoulder) exercise with a combined troops of about 18,000.
As always, the guests are always tilted more towards the western/PH side. You have Professor Richard Haydarian, the white guy from CSIS (who always frequently appear on PH media castigating China) and then one Chinese guy from H.K. Andrew Leung.
As always, the guests are always tilted more towards the western/PH side. You have Professor Richard Haydarian, the white guy from CSIS (who always frequently appear on PH media castigating China) and then one Chinese guy from H.K. Andrew Leung.
Stockholm syndrome is hard to get rid of. Look at Japan and South Korea, short of complete subjugation, nothing will.
Off topic and I have nothing against Ukrainians, but you can include Ukraine in that list.
I have been looking at the meme that is Filipino SCS tensions. My verdict? The Philippines have no business getting into conflict with anyone.
Their airforce has a single fixed-wing combatant squadron made of converted trainer jets (FA-50). No BVR missiles in the inventory and they are just getting modern IR guided missiles. The current AAM inventory is just AIM-9L
Their navy has no ships capable of area air defense. In fact none of their ships have anything beyond MANPADS and old-style guns for air defense. ASW capability is token with no TAS or ASW missile available in the navy. 2 ships have a single helo, hull-mounted sonar (HMS) and torpedo tubes. And another two have HMS and torpedo tubes. There are two more patrol vessels with HMS and a single helo but I am not sure if they are ASW capable. No subs in the inventory.
Air defense? Pretty much non-existent for a country size of the Philippines. 3 batteries (3 launchers each) of SPYDER. SPYDER is capable, but it is barely area air defense by today's standards with a range of 50 km. And 3 small batteries are basically negligible. According to many articles, even MANPADSes or autocannons are rare in the armed forces. So air defense is basically done by 0.5 cal machine guns.
I didn't dive deep into the ground forces but, looking shallowly, things look bad there too. I don't see any ATGMs beyond low numbers of TOW 2 variants (comically donated by the US in 2022). Tanks are non-existent and there are just 12 self-propelled guns. The light tank they are getting is not amphibious, which IMO is a bizarre choice for the Philippines.
Filipino Armed Forces is a glorified police force. Call this chauvinism but I don't think an armed forces that can't sink ships, shoot down aircraft or kill tanks in any real capacity is worth mentioning. Even Vietnam and Indonesia are extreme overmatches for the Philippines. Let alone PLA Southern Theater Command
Their airforce has a single fixed-wing combatant squadron made of converted trainer jets (FA-50). No BVR missiles in the inventory and they are just getting modern IR guided missiles. The current AAM inventory is just AIM-9L
Their navy has no ships capable of area air defense. In fact none of their ships have anything beyond MANPADS and old-style guns for air defense. ASW capability is token with no TAS or ASW missile available in the navy. 2 ships have a single helo, hull-mounted sonar (HMS) and torpedo tubes. And another two have HMS and torpedo tubes. There are two more patrol vessels with HMS and a single helo but I am not sure if they are ASW capable. No subs in the inventory.
Air defense? Pretty much non-existent for a country size of the Philippines. 3 batteries (3 launchers each) of SPYDER. SPYDER is capable, but it is barely area air defense by today's standards with a range of 50 km. And 3 small batteries are basically negligible. According to many articles, even MANPADSes or autocannons are rare in the armed forces. So air defense is basically done by 0.5 cal machine guns.
I didn't dive deep into the ground forces but, looking shallowly, things look bad there too. I don't see any ATGMs beyond low numbers of TOW 2 variants (comically donated by the US in 2022). Tanks are non-existent and there are just 12 self-propelled guns. The light tank they are getting is not amphibious, which IMO is a bizarre choice for the Philippines.
Filipino Armed Forces is a glorified police force. Call this chauvinism but I don't think an armed forces that can't sink ships, shoot down aircraft or kill tanks in any real capacity is worth mentioning. Even Vietnam and Indonesia are extreme overmatches for the Philippines. Let alone PLA Southern Theater Command