China's SCS Strategy Thread

voyager1

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Right now he's the best China can have, like what the others have said, he is navigating the treacherous terrain of Philippine politics that is filled with Pro-American stooges from left and right. If China intends to keep the PH a friendly neighbor in the long term or at least a neutral player in SCS, China will need to increase Chinese immigration to the country and support the already established Chinese communities in the country to enable them to have a bigger say and re[resentation in the country's political space.
Dont pay attention to the doomsayers. Duterte is a true China friend

The problem is that Philippines is infested by CIA traitors

China has already solved the sea issues with Philippines. They will share the oil revenues from drilling oil in the sea.

Also Philippines should forget about that UN "court decision", Beijing throws the paper straight into the trash bin
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Okay guys , will give you a head ups, Duterte is saying those words publicly now as in admitting he is a China guy for what purposes? he is egging his opponent to criticizing him more, the reason he is laying the trap, the topic the arbitration and how we lost Scarborough shoal.
those critics of his had lied and cover up their mistake with the help of the MSM, the arbitration ruling is being push by the US for their FON policy, they needed the Philippine as a complainant to pursue the case in its kangaroo court, instead of reinforcing our claim we lost legally our sovereignty rights to Scarborough shoal as our traditional fishing ground (it had been declare as OPEN to all to fish) and we had to pay for that legal expense ($78 million huge on our part) a double whammy. Regarding the Scarborough stand off that led to the filling of the arbitration case, it's coincidental after receiving an ex US warship
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from the American that we sent that ship to reinforce our claim a grey ship instead of a civilian one like the coast guard, who authorized it? and who ordered its withdrawal during the standoff ? those question is being expose now, these are the names of the personalities that had a hidden role in these incidence , US undersecretary on Asian affairs Kurt Campbell, Sen Antonio Trillanes, Jose Cuisa ( Phil Ambassador to the US), Del Rosario Phil FM and Manny Pangilinan. Of course we had to include President Aquino but he knows nothing and he let these people to run his foreign Policy.

Currently the news that is being exposed is about the shouting match that happen between Cuisa and Campbell regarding its obligation of helping the Philippines drove the Chinese out. This opinion piece from one of the most respected independent journalist in the Philippines Mr Roberto Tiglao of MANILA TIMES

Cuisia: ‘US diplomat told me Chinese would leave Panatag’

WE had an ambassador like this?

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, our ambassador to the US during the Aquino 3rd regime, said in a television interview the other day that the Chinese had agreed to leave Scarborough Shoal in June 2012 together with Philippine vessels.

How did he know that?
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, the US assistant secretary of state for Asia, had told him so.

Did he ask any Chinese official to confirm what the American official said? No.

This was our ambassador to the US, chairman or CEO of this and that American-affiliated companies even when he held that post? I hope he wasn’t sold the Lincoln Memorial while he was at D. C.



poster

i



Kurt-Campbell_Jose-Cuisia20210514-800x550.jpg
US diplomat Kurt Campbell, ‘Mr. Pivot,’ told Jose Cuisia (right) the Chinese would leave the shoal. He believed him and blamed
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.

Cuisia said he relayed this information to then Foreign Affairs Secretary
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, who then informed Aquino. Despite his doubts over such an agreement, Aquino ordered the Philippine vessels to leave, according to Cuisia. (Sen.
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4th’s version is that it was del Rosario who gave such orders.)

But the Chinese didn’t, which put the shoal under their control. The country lost its first territory, after Sabah, forever, as it were.

‘Intsik’
“Duplicitous itong mga Instik,” Cuisia had the gall to say on TV. But he never talked to the Chinese, only to a US State Department official of China’s competitor, even arch enemy, the United States of America, whose wily tricks to dominate the world have been legendary. (Remember Bush’s “weapons of mass destruction” that he said Saddam had?)

It didn’t occur in Cuisia’s mind that Campbell, one of the strategists of the US containment program against China that he’s been called “Mr. Pivot,” may have been lying, or simply misinterpreted the words of China Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying who had supposedly agreed to a withdrawal.

My suspicion is that Campbell deliberately fooled the gullible Cuisia as the Philippines’ loss of the shoal would not only add to the US portrayal of China as an aggressor in the
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. It would also trigger outrage in the country, prompting Aquino to finally file the arbitration suit it had been planning since 2011 and which the US had been pushing.

Campbell was appointed by President
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last January as his National Security Council coordinator for the Indo-Pacific. He wasn’t appointed to that post for nothing. I wouldn’t at all be surprised if it was his reward for engineering the Philippines’ loss of Scarborough to China in 2012, which pushed the Aquino regime to file the arbitration case against China seven months later.

This was our ambassador to the world’s most powerful nation? Take your pick: Cuisia was either too naive and gullible to be a diplomat, plain stupid, or too ignorant of China-US relations.

Agreement?
If China reneged on an agreement, Campbell would have certainly broadcast that to the world, as this bolsters the US propaganda that China is a duplicitous power plotting to control by whatever means the entire South China Sea. Campbell left government service in February 2013 but said not a word about such an “agreement.”

the-pivot20210514-800x1120.jpg
Campbell’s book that describes how to deal with China’s ‘territorial encroachments in the South China Sea.’ Fool Filipino diplomats?
In his 2016 book, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia, the only mention he made of that episode which had far-reaching consequences in the South China Sea was a single sentence: “The Philippines’ ten-week standoff with China ultimately resulted in its loss of the Scarborough Shoal, which is claimed by both countries.” He didn’t blame China at all.

Not even the US government has gone on record to claim that the Chinese reneged on an agreement to leave Scarborough Shoal simultaneously with the Philippines.

If the US State Department could not officially claim that there was an agreement, wouldn’t it do what it often does, which is to leak it to its media especially its usual venues The New York Times or the Washington Post? No such leak at all.

Fu, the Chinese official who Campbell had supposedly talked to, in June 2014 denied that there had been any deal between her and US diplomats in 2012. “I do not know what agreement you are referring to…. The Chinese vessels did not leave the area because they feared the Philippines might double-cross them,” she was reported as saying by the Financial Times. “All China is doing is to keep an eye on the island for fear that the Philippines would do it again,” she reportedly said.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
continue....

Negotiations
Only del Rosario and Cuisia, and not even Aquino, have claimed that there was such an agreement. But they cannot show any aide memoire, notes of the meeting or a draft agreement that are de rigueur or taken as standard procedure in these kinds of sensitive negotiations.

Trillanes, Aquino’s secret “back-channel” envoy to Chinese officials to resolve the dispute peacefully, at least wrote an aide memoire on the episode. He wrote that “he was still hammering out the details of the sequential withdrawal from the shoal” when the President told him that del Rosario had already ordered the Filipino vessels out of the area. Trillanes wrote that Aquino was angry that del Rosario had not cleared with him the order for the vessels to leave.

It is impossible for such an agreement to have been reached on such an important crisis in a single meeting, and by a sole Chinese official who didn’t even consult her superiors. Anyone familiar with the nature of negotiations between countries, the Chinese Communist Party’s decision-making process, and the circumstances of the Scarborough stand-off would laugh at Cuisia and del Rosario’s claim that Campbell got vice minister Fu to agree to the pullout in one single meeting.

Indeed, only the most incompetent diplomat, or those who had no experience in international negotiations like Cuisia and del Rosario (who were both corporate executives before they joined the Aquino government) would have assumed that Fu had the authority at that secret meeting in a Virginia hotel to commit her country to such a crucial decision.

Astonishing
It was astonishing indeed that Cuisia and del Rosario were ignorant of the fact that China — as all countries do — have a strict hierarchical system for deciding on a course of action. Even if Fu did agree to the proposal for a simultaneous withdrawal of the vessels of the two countries, she could have been “overruled by more hawkish elements in the Chinese system, including the military,” the Financial Times concluded.

“The PRC’s detestation of the internationalization of its one-sided scrum with the Philippines is a byword in Chinese diplomacy,” China observer Peter Lee wrote. “Maybe as a courtesy, Fu agreed to transmit the US proposal back to Beijing; most likely, the leadership’s decision would have been to reject any US involvement in the matter.”

Was it possible that the Americans fooled del Rosario so that we would lose Scarborough Shoal? Certainly. Indeed, “del Rosario said that the loss of Scarborough was the ‘catalyst’ for Manila’s decision to bring China to an international court over its expansive claims in the South China Sea,” the Financial Times reported back in 2014.

To mimic Cuisia’s kind of language: Niloko siya ng mga Kano, Intsik pa rin ang sinisisi. (He was fooled by the American and he blamed the Chinese).

So that is the story and there is more that will be revealed......stay tuned.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
And here in his recent opinion piece. And there will be more as the public want some answers from those person involved and it must include the Mainstream media for being complicit in hiding the truth.

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Why the US fooled the ‘Bajo 3’ into losing PH territory​


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By
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May 17, 2021

BY “Bajo Three” I mean the three very high-ranked Philippine officials who lost Bajo de Masinloc (also known as Scarborough or Panatag Shoal) because they naively believed in early June 2012 a US official’s lie, he got the Chinese to agree to a simultaneous withdrawal of Chinese and Filipino vessels from the shoal, to end a 10-week stand-off in the area. The three believed him and had our vessels vacate the shoal, leaving the Chinese in control of the shoal — forever as it were.

These three were:
– Our ambassador to the US,
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, who had been told by US assistant state secretary for
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an agreement with the Chinese had been reached

– Then foreign affairs secretary
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, to whom Cuisia relayed the claim, after which del Rosario ordered, by one account, the Philippine vessels to vacate the area

– Then President
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3rd to whom del Rosario relayed Cuisia’s claim and who, according to the foreign secretary, had the sole authority to order the vessels out

That this actually happened and was kept secret for so long by a powerful Yellow-controlled media with the help of the smokescreen that was the arbitration case filed in 2013 against
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, is beyond doubt. Cuisia and del Rosario have practically confirmed they relied totally on Campbell’s say-so and neither of them had talked to a Chinese official, even just by telephone, about the agreement.

poster



kurt-campbell20210517.jpg
The US diplomat who fooled Cuisia, del Rosario and Aquino is now Biden’s ‘Asia czar.’ FROM ASIA.NIKKEI REPORT
Campbell has kept mum about the incident, and in his 2016 book, The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia, the only mention he made of that episode which had far-reaching consequences for the
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geopolitics — China’s occupation of a shoal so close to the Philippine mainland — was a single sentence: “The
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’ ten-week standoff with China ultimately resulted in its loss of the Scarborough Shoal, which is claimed by both countries.”


Campbell is not just any ordinary US official. He is considered to be the architect of America’s “Pivot to Asia” policy launched by President Obama in 2009. New US president
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on day one appointed him “Asia czar.”

Silence
If Campbell had brokered a deal, which the Chinese reneged on, shouldn’t he have been shouting it to high heavens denouncing China? His silence on this is deafening as he doesn’t hide his disdain for China. In a recent Foreign Policy article, he wrote: “China’s growing material power has indeed destabilized the region’s delicate balance and emboldened Beijing’s territorial adventurism. Left unchecked, Chinese behavior could end the region’s long peace.”

The loss of Scarborough — in my book the Yellow regime’s biggest crime against country — is a classic case, if not of gullibility and incompetence of Yellow officials then of a puppet mindset: Uncle Sam takes care of us, he can never betray us, the Bajo Three must have thought.

There are three major reasons why the US fooled the Aquino government into surrendering control of Scarborough Shoal, an understanding of which should be a lesson in our foreign policy.

First, the US had to prevent at all costs a battle between Chinese and Filipino forces over Scarborough Shoal.

After a 10-week stand-off, the Americans got worried the Aquino regime — especially with the belligerent language of his generals and personalities like then Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio — would provoke a military skirmish in a desperate attempt to regain control of the shoal. The Philippines would then invoke the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the US.

Unpalatable
This would force the US to respond in two different ways, one unpalatable and the other way too risky.

The first option, an unappealing one, was for the US to claim the MDT refers to an attack only on the Philippines’ mainland and forces there, not to an attack on a disputed territory and to Filipino forces there. In fact, Marcos had in 1976 backed out of a project to get foreign companies to explore the
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when US officials explained this “fine print” in the MDT to him. And that was even the era when Marcos had a trump card: the US military bases in the country, critical during the Vietnam war.

But such a hands-off stance would portray the US as weak, or even interpreted as the start of a US retreat from Southeast Asia. For US anti-China hawks, that would embolden China to enforce its claims in the entire South China Sea, even totally drive away not just Filipinos, but Vietnamese and Malaysians out of the Spratly.

The second option was to go to the Filipinos’ defense in a military conflict. But this would almost certainly trigger a war between the US and China. The Chinese Communist Party would not be able to withstand domestic outrage in China if it backed down from a confrontation with the US, which in the first place has been viewed by the Chinese as attempting to continue its hegemony in Asia. It is not an exaggeration that it could have escalated into an all-out nuclear war.

The Americans of course had no way to get the Chinese to leave the shoal and thus prevent a military situation. They could think with the Philippines with its gullible and submissive diplomats. Why, its ambassador was a very close friend of America, having been the chairman of Philam Life owned by the American AIG Insurance and was currently (while he was ambassador) chairman of the Philippine distributor of Chevrolet cars.

Propaganda
Second, the US decided to trick the Bajo Three because it calculated the loss of Bajo de Masinloc to the Chinese would bolster its propaganda that China’s strategy has been to control the South China Sea gradually and in increments. This would convince the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations to move closer to the US and allow it to have a bigger naval presence in the South China Sea region.

This propaganda has been quite successful the most vehement anti-China (but apparently pro-Vietnam and pro-US) propagandist Carpio has been incessant in mouthing the American line of China’s “creeping invasion.” No matter of course, the last feature China occupied in the South China Sea before Scarborough was Mischief Reef in 1995, which was in retaliation against the Ramos government’s move in 1994 (cleared reportedly by Carpio who was the president’s legal counsel) to grant oil exploration rights in the Reed Bank to the US-affiliated firm Alcorn Petroleum.

Third, the US calculated if the Chinese took over Scarborough, it could easily scare the wits out of the Aquino government that it would quickly restore US military bases here that were terminated in 1991, although in a more modern form, as a means of fending off Chinese expansionism.

This was through the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), signed by the Aquino 3rd government in 2014, which gives the US permission to station its troops and war materiel readying for battle in five military camps in the Philippines.
 
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ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
continue.....

Military base
Americans undoubtedly told Aquino and his officials: “We need military bases in the Philippines so we can easily mobilize our troops and war materiel in case the Chinese decide to invade you next, after Scarborough.

Indeed, then associate justice Antonio Carpio unabashedly devoted his entire concurring opinion in the Supreme Court decision that upheld the EDCA in 2016 to argue not that it complied with the Constitution. Instead, sounding like a spokesman for the US military, he argued the EDCA agreement was necessary to defend the country from China:

“After China’s seizure of Scarborough Shoal in 2012, the Philippines finally woke up and summoned the political will to address the serial and creeping Chinese invasion of Philippine national territory. Thus, the EDCA was born. With the EDCA, the Philippines will have a fighting chance to hold on to Philippine-occupied islands in the Spratly. With the EDCA, China will think twice before attacking Philippine Navy and coast guard vessels patrolling the West Philippine Sea.”

Fourth, the US fooled the Bajo Three to lose Scarborough Shoal in order to prompt the Philippines into filing the arbitration suit against China. This suit in reality was a US scheme not just to bolster its propaganda China doesn’t believe in the international rule of law.

One of its aims was to give, and indeed successfully gave, the US some basis in ‘international law’ — even if only through the ruling of an arbitral panel — for the US Navy’s patrols in the South China Sea (euphemistically called Freedom of Navigation Operations, or Fonops) to project its military power.

The arbitration “award” ruled no feature in the South China Sea, including those occupied by the Chinese, can have a 370-kilometer exclusive economic zone (EEZ). If followed, that prevents nations there from declaring their EEZs in the South China Sea, which would make most of its international waters through which US warships can freely sail without having to ask any nation for permission, and even secretly. That assures US submarines — actually the most powerful US weapon — to approach closer than ever to mainland China and North Korea.

The arbitration case was planned as early as 2011, as President Aquino revealed in his July 2011 State of the Nation Address. The suit was a conjunction of US interests and those of the oligarchic group whose gas-well development plans in the Reed Bank were stopped by China in March that year. However, that an oligarchic group’s project was stopped by China was hardly an issue that Filipinos would rally around, for the government to file an unprecedented case against a superpower in the neighborhood.

The Chinese takeover of Bajo de Masinloc was a game-changer and it was easy for the Aquino regime to stoke anti-Chinese feelings over the issue, especially since Bajo de Masinloc was portrayed in newspaper illustrations as being very close to the well-known former US military base in Subic Bay in Zambales.

Aquino officials went all out in trying to scare the Philippine elite of an impending Chinese “invasion.” According to a written eyewitness report of then senator
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4th, seasoned diplomat
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told a Cabinet meeting in which several senators and representatives were present, the “annexation” of Scarborough Shoal by China would be used as a springboard to claim Western Luzon.

Catalyst
As the International Crisis Group in a report said: “Members of the Manila policy establishment who supported bilateral engagement with Beijing lost influence after a mid-2012 standoff that ended with China seizing control of the Scarborough Shoal.”

Del Rosario himself told the British Financial Times it was the loss of Scarborough that became the “catalyst” for the Philippine decision to bring China to an international court over its expansive claims in the South China Sea.

The Philippines’ loss of Scarborough because of US duplicity gave Washington tremendous gains: fodder for China’s creeping-invasion strategy, the return of US military bases in the Philippines, and the arbitration suit. Our loss of a Philippine territory — the first after Sabah — was of no importance for the US.

No wonder Campbell, the US operative who fooled the Bajo Three, rather than being condemned in the US for helping China to seize a piece of Philippine territory, was appointed on the very first day of the Biden administration as “National Security Council Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific.” That’s a brand-new post that conceals its enormous authority, essentially Biden’s point man for Asia.

Did Biden’s search team recommend him for his brilliant, bold machinations in 2012 over Scarborough Shoal that led to a tremendous loss for the Philippines, but gave a huge boon to the US Pivot to Asia program, of which Campbell was the architect?
 

PhSt

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So the Americans are blackmailing the PH gov into agreeing to allow US occupation troops in the country or they'll pack up and let Islamic Terrorists ravage the country (groups that the US supported in the first place so the PH will forever be relying on American occupation forces to remain in the country). I hope Duterte kicks them out and let the PH independently deal with its local terrorists.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
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So the Americans are blackmailing the PH gov into agreeing to allow US occupation troops in the country or they'll pack up and let Islamic Terrorists ravage the country (groups that the US supported in the first place so the PH will forever be relying on American occupation forces to remain in the country). I hope Duterte kicks them out and let the PH independently deal with its local terrorists.
@PhSt bro he didn't renew the VFA agreement, all this hoopla about the Chinese incursion is to force him. Now why should he do that willingly, the American should pay if they want to use our bases and on our terms and condition. In other words they can't use the Philippines as a springboard for any military adventurism.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Dont pay attention to the doomsayers. Duterte is a true China friend

The problem is that Philippines is infested by CIA traitors

China has already solved the sea issues with Philippines. They will share the oil revenues from drilling oil in the sea.

Also Philippines should forget about that UN "court decision", Beijing throws the paper straight into the trash bin
 
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