China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

There is no guarantee from Indonesia's government, but that says nothing about what China's government has said to the bank. If the Indonesians default, the Chinese government could bail out the China Development Bank; this seems likely to me as the Jakarta-Bandung HSR is clearly one of Beijing's political goals.

However, I doubt Indonesia will default, as they'll need a lot of investment: $500 billion just on infrastructure, never mind anything else. If they default, they will lose that investment from China. The Japanese import a lot of oil from Indonesia, so perhaps they might want to help, but their debt is already several times their total GDP, and they probably can't afford it. That is likely why they demanded a guarantee from Indonesia's government for Jakarta-Bandung: they couldn't afford to lose the $6 billion. China can.

If not Japan, who else can afford to invest $500 billion? I don't see anyone. Therefore I think the Indonesians will try very hard to hold up their end of the deal. Besides, the loan is cheap: 2% interest for $3 to $4 billion, 3% for the rest. Indonesia is getting the high speed railroad almost for free. What debt trap?

Yes it is political goal at the cost of Chinese tax payer think about it ! As it stand now you are right the Indonesia fiscal condition is quite good. But they are close to default in Asian monetary crisis necessitating IMF to bail them out with harsh condition of liquidating bank and creating panic and riot. Many Chinese owned store, plaza were burned to the ground, rape everywhere. I don't know if you know the history

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I don't think Indo export oil now they don't have enough for themselves and has to buy gasoline from Singapore. And quite a drain on the budget because they buy high and sell low(subsidized price).Temporarily they get respite because of glut in oil. So I don't know where you get the idea that Indo export oil to Japan. Their field is aging and declining with every year. They nationalize the oil exploration so nobody want to invest there. They did export LNG to Japan but now they want to curtail even that to meet domestic consumption.

So don't ever say never!

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Pentagon campaign to recruit Vietnam as military ally against China exposed delusions of US war strategy​

Vietnam as a key base in US war strategy​

Between 2010 and 2017, China developed intermediate-range missiles capable of hitting American bases in Japan and South Korea. To counter that threat, the Pentagon and military services began working on a new strategy in which US Marines, accompanied by an array of missiles, would spread out over a network of small, rudimentary bases and move continuously from one base to another.

Vietnam was the logical choice for such sites. Australia and the Philippines

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hosting US missiles capable of hitting China, and South Korea was considered unlikely to agree. Indonesia and Singapore were too economically dependent on China to be interested.

I guess for Americans No means Yes. Just like any other rapists would think.

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Interesting article thank you

 

[Nutrient]

Yes it is political goal at the cost of Chinese tax payer think about it !

The Jakarta-Bandung HSR line only costs $6 billion. Even if the Indonesians steal it all, it's nothing to the Middle Kingdom. Beijing probably considers the project an investment; as in all investments, there is an element of risk. However, there is good reason to think that the Indonesians won't steal it all (see below), so the investment could pay off.

As it stand now you are right the Indonesia fiscal condition is quite good.

I didn't mean to imply that, but if the Indonesians are indeed in decent fiscal shape, they are less likely to default on the $6 billion.

Another reason that they're unlikely to default is that apparently all the land has already been acquired and paid for; the cost was probably high. So the Indonesians are heavily invested too, and therefore are less likely to default.

A third reason is what I have said before: Indonesia knows it needs foreign investment ($500 billion for infrastructure alone), and only China could possibly afford it.

In short, while there is risk for Beijing, it is manageable.

But they [were] close to default in Asian monetary crisis necessitating IMF to bail them out with harsh condition of liquidating bank and creating panic and riot. Many Chinese owned store, plaza were burned to the ground, rape everywhere. I don't know if you know the history

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Yes. That is part of the risk. However, once the Indonesians see the new trains and they realize how useful they will be, I think they will want to keep them.

I don't think Indo export oil now they don't have enough for themselves and has to buy gasoline from Singapore. And quite a drain on the budget because they buy high and sell low(subsidized price).Temporarily they get respite because of glut in oil. So I don't know where you get the idea that Indo export oil to Japan. Their field is aging and declining with every year. They nationalize the oil exploration so nobody want to invest there. They did export LNG to Japan but now they want to curtail even that to meet domestic consumption.

Yes, I was going by vague memories that Japan used to buy a lot of oil from Indonesia. Not any more, you are right.

 

[ansy1968]

@Bellum_Romanum @Sardaukar20 I told you he is a teflon, look at his rating , it is slightly lower from his previous record high, but with a crushing pandemic and constant negative news from here and abroad especially his China pivot it is still high compare to those candidates who wanted to be president and 3x lead over the opposition leader VP Robredo. Isko Moreno is not even included in the survey shows you how irrelevant he is when thrown in the National spotlight. The Manila Times is a very reputable news paper own by a Filipino Nationalist without any ties to Oligarch.

Duterte maintains high approval, trust ratings​

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By

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April 8, 2021
More than a year after the Covid-19 pandemic, President Rodrigo Duterte has maintained high approval and trust ratings, an independent pollster said.
In the first quarter poll conducted by PUBLiCUS Asia Inc., Duterte registered an overall approval rating of 65 percent, nominally lower than his 70 percent score in the survey conducted in December last year.

President Rodrigo Roa Duterte. ALFRED FRIAS/ PRESIDENTIAL PHOTO

The President also acquired a trust rating of 55 percent, 7 points lower than his 62 percent score in December, according to the Pahayag survey.
Meanwhile, Senate President Vicente “Tito” Sotto 3rd secured an approval rating of 40 percent while Vice President Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo got 29 percent.
Retired chief justice Diosdado Peralta recorded a 28-percent approval rating while House Speaker Lord Allan Velasco had 25 percent.

Robredo’s trust rating was 19 percent and her distrust rating was 49 percent.

On the other hand, Sotto had 25-percent trust rating; Peralta, 15 percent; and Velasco, 14 percent.
Meanwhile, the Technical Education and Skills Development Authority (Tesda), the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) were recognized as top performers among government agencies included in the survey.
Tesda received a 61-percent approval rating for its performance, while the AFP had 60 percent and DSWD, 57 percent.
The Philippine National Police’s total approval went down from 58 percent in December to 36 percent in this survey run.
The most trusted agencies were the AFP (44 percent), Tesda (43 percent) and Department of Science and Technology (35 percent).
The Pahayag survey, conducted from March 20 to 29, polled 1,500 respondents drawn from a research panel of approximately 100,000 Filipinos maintained by a Singapore-based firm.
The survey research panel was restricted to registered voters.
The poll is an independent, noncommissioned, survey covering nine modules: state of the economy and economic prospects; Covid-19 vaccine prioritization and openness to safety protocols; national issues; scorecard for national leaders and institutions; emotional quotient of incumbent and prospective leaders; media consumption habits and responses to media campaigns; predisposition; blended learning; and new normal consumption habits.

 

[PhSt]

1:54 Americans are now brazenly telling the Philippines to occupy territories in the Nansha district.

 

[voyager1]

1:54 Americans are now brazenly telling the Philippines to occupy territories in the Nansha district.

Americans just do their job, causing trouble.

Quote:
"Occupation is easy" Lmao

Sure very "easy"..

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

1:54 Americans are now brazenly telling the Philippines to occupy territories in the Nansha district.

The Philippine elites from media, business, politics, and even the military officers of all branches are really doing a massive disservice and lies to the Filipino people by peddling them with delusions of grandeur that somehow a potential armed conflict with China isn't something that they must avoid at all cost because they have Daddy U.S.A. willing to defend and die for them for the disputed islands.

I mean where do we start? Take the current force structures of the Philippine Army, Marines and CAFGU'S their land components are designed to fight low level intensity conflict which reflects on their training, equipment, materiale etc. I don't even want to mention their anemic Navy which frankly isn't going to come close in matching the overwhelming advantage the PLAN have over them. The Philippine Air Force? Same situation. Does the Philippine Forces structure even have an adequate Cyber Command? How about their I.S.R. capability or lack thereof? What a joke.

If the Philippine warmongering monkeys are really this eager and serious in confronting the perceived "China threat/invasion" the howling hyenas should have reorganized their whole military structures from the lack of manpower by instituting mandatory services similar to what is done in South Korea, so all able bodied male and female of the right age undergo military training regardless of their status in society. They would have seriously considered enacting fiscal and economic policies to support the procurements of necessary military equipments in order to deter any Chinese adventurism into the territories they claim as their own. I could go on and on..

None of these sh..t are close to being even considered as those warmongering m..keys a.k.a keyboard commandos would not even dare to sign up and fight let alone put their precious bodies into the meat grinder of hard military training. The sons and daughters of the howling politicians wouldn't even see the light of day when it comes to training let alone seeing any action lol..most of their kids are living out of the country and are settled in the 5 eyes countries.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

First thing those elites will do is flee to the US or Europe. They probably have their dollars parked anyway.

 

[ansy1968]

The Philippine elites from media, business, politics, and even the military officers of all branches are really doing a massive disservice and lies to the Filipino people by peddling them with delusions of grandeur that somehow a potential armed conflict with China isn't something that they must avoid at all cost because they have Daddy U.S.A. willing to defend and die for them for the disputed islands.

I mean where do we start? Take the current force structures of the Philippine Army, Marines and CAFGU'S their land components are designed to fight low level intensity conflict which reflects on their training, equipment, materiale etc. I don't even want to mention their anemic Navy which frankly isn't going to come close in matching the overwhelming advantage the PLAN have over them. The Philippine Air Force? Same situation. Does the Philippine Forces structure even have an adequate Cyber Command? How about their I.S.R. capability or lack thereof? What a joke.

If the Philippine warmongering monkeys are really this eager and serious in confronting the perceived "China threat/invasion" the howling hyenas should have reorganized their whole military structures from the lack of manpower by instituting mandatory services similar to what is done in South Korea, so all able bodied male and female of the right age undergo military training regardless of their status in society. They would have seriously considered enacting fiscal and economic policies to support the procurements of necessary military equipments in order to deter any Chinese adventurism into the territories they claim as their own. I could go on and on..

None of these sh..t are close to being even considered as those warmongering m..keys a.k.a keyboard commandos would not even dare to sign up and fight let alone put their precious bodies into the meat grinder of hard military training. The sons and daughters of the howling politicians wouldn't even see the light of day when it comes to training let alone seeing any action lol..most of their kids are living out of the country and are settled in the 5 eyes countries.

@Bellum_Romanum and it happen before and we lost Scarborough shoal , I still remember the date cause its my birthday April 8 2012, the same people who advocate such action are the one responsible for that lost.

 

[KYli]

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