China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Nobonita Barua]

SCS sea is big, and B1B is fast China may not able to intercept that plane fast enough. Most of times it would be Chinese surface ships encountering US forces first and foremost. Would a 052D spot a B1B first or B1B spot the ship first? I think this is important.

Very defensive thinking.
In this era of information warfare, your opponents want to judge your potential reaction by "floating ideas".

What you should be floating is the idea of immediately put Guam & Hawaii out of service with potential integration to United States of China.

 

[nastya1]

Judging by recent US foreign relations, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, and to a certain extent Malaysia have already signalled they won't be allowing the US to use their sovereign territory as staging areas to counter China. I'm not sure smaller countries in the area would have the appetite to host US military when they're in the backdoor of China. So looking at what's left of INDOPACOM assets, B-1s are limited to launching from Kadena AB in Okinawa and Guam.... And that's with tanker support as well to increase their combat range.

Utilizing Chinese satellite reconnaissance and radar coverage, the US would essentially be telegraphing when and where their bombers (or airborne assets for that fact) will be coming. That gives ample time for the PLAAF to scramble J-20s to shoot them down BVR stealth style, especially with support from AWACS and ground radar. B-1s might be fast for a destroyer to hit, but let's see it go up against our fighters. Even if we don't hit their bombers, their tankers are sitting ducks with limited countermeasures. So unless these B-1 bombers intend on making it a one-way trip and use kamakaze attacks to take out our Southern Fleet, I'm not sure if that strategy of using B-1 bombers is all that sound.

J20 has no deployed at Hainan yet. At paracel they deployed j11b and j10.

I am talking at mischief, firerycross islands.
Currently there are not even fighter jets there only antiship and air defence missiles. And surface ships.

I don't know what changes in the future but currently there are only those I mentioned above for defence.

My gut feeling is if US air forces attack China SCS positions and ships outhere today, China mostly have to rely on SAM to counter them as of today or forseeable future.

USN subs can cause big damages but they are too slow. I still have a hunch that US air forces would be most likely candidate for a limited short conflict. IN/OUT

 

[crash8pilot]

J20 has no deployed at Hainan yet. At paracel they deployed j11b and j10.

Even J-11Bs and J-10Cs are quite capable in the BVR fight armed with AESA radars and PL-15s, especially against a non-stealthy B-1. More importantly like I mentioned B-1s do not have the range to launch from Kadena or Guam to reach the SCS unless they plan on making it a one way trip and ditch when they run out of fuel.

I don't know what changes in the future but currently there are only those I mentioned above for defence.

Carrier strike groups, which destroyer squadrons will be attached to, will have a full airborne wing of J-15s and Z-18s/Z-9s to provide fleet defense as well as anti-submarine warfare capabilities from the air.

 

[nastya1]

Carrier strike groups, which destroyer squadrons will be attached to, will have a full airborne wing of J-15s and Z-18s/Z-9s to provide fleet defense as well as anti-submarine warfare capabilities from the air.

As of now, Chinese carrier group still doesn't have the confidences yet to directly actively engaged with US forces. Rightly so.

They either hiding somewhere for training or tour around Taiwan.

The situation would be better if J31 be in service and more carriers in service in future.

But for now and next few years, China have to deal with US what they got currently

 

[crash8pilot]

As of now, Chinese carrier group still doesn't have the confidences yet to directly actively engaged with US forces. Rightly so.

You were stating you didn't know what was going to change in the future. With testing and commissioning nearing completion, we'll be deploying a carrier strike group to project power into the South China Sea, effectively enforcing an anti-access area denial strategy against INDOPACOM assets.

They either hiding somewhere for training or your around Taiwan.

Unless the incoming Biden Administration intends to blatantly tear up the One-China policy, that's not going to happen.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

As of now, Chinese carrier group still doesn't have the confidences yet to directly actively engaged with US forces. Rightly so.

They either hiding somewhere for training or tour around Taiwan.

The situation would be better if J31 be in service and more carriers in service in future.

But for now and next few years, China have to deal with US what they got currently

What make you think that is the case They have 8 years under the belt and they have been actively training and soon they have 2 squadron of J 15 fully equipped and manned. Night take off and landing checked, Weapon release checked, long range sailing checked. double take off and landing checked. inflight refueling checked.CV 17 will attain IOC the end of year. they should be able to deploy close to SCS or anywhere within the 1st island chain

 

[nastya1]

What make you think that is the case They have 8 years under the belt and they have been actively training and soon they have 2 squadron of J 15 fully equipped and manned. Night take off and landing checked, Weapon release checked, long range sailing checked. double take off and landing checked. inflight refueling checked.CV 17 will attain IOC the end of year. they should be able to deploy close to SCS or anywhere within the 1st island chain

The number of planes j15 versus superhornets and presence of F35.
And the observation that whenever US carriers around, Chinese carriers usually stay far away. I also feel they are not ready for primetime yet versus USN. Maybe against Vietnam, australia, Japan OK.

You got to have some room for margin. Don't want to push full throttle on the basic unit.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

The number of planes j15 versus superhornets and presence of F35.
And the observation that whenever US carriers around, Chinese carriers usually stay far away. I also feel they are not ready for primetime yet versus USN. Maybe against Vietnam, australia, Japan OK.

You got to have some room for margin. Don't want to push full throttle on the basic unit.

Chinese carrier was not meant to face the US carrier directly. They have ASBM for that. bomber like H6J with YJ12, Submarine with YJ18. I don't know an instance where Chinese carrier is close to US carrier that is your imagination. They were meant for fleet protection and making sure SCS safe for Chinese submarine to roam

 

[reservior dogs]

The number of planes j15 versus superhornets and presence of F35.
And the observation that whenever US carriers around, Chinese carriers usually stay far away. I also feel they are not ready for primetime yet versus USN. Maybe against Vietnam, australia, Japan OK.

You got to have some room for margin. Don't want to push full throttle on the basic unit.

If there is a fight, it will not be U.S. CSG against Chinese CSG, it will be U.S. CSG against the entire continental China. In that case, the CSG plays a marginal role. It would stay inside the protective sphere of the Chinese missile defense shield to extend the reach of Chinese air strike capability. The heavy lifting will be DF-17, DF-21 and DF-26.

 

[nastya1]

Eventually PLAN will have to come out and face the USN in the high sea. The planning would be having two carrier strike groups in the Indian ocean to protect its sea lane. One would be at Myanmar Coco island at east side watching over Indian Navy at adanman and another group stationed at island off the coast of Pakistan at the west side.
Eventually PLAN carriers has to reach certain parity with USN carrier groups.