China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Jura The idiot]

So how should Taiwan prepare and defend against a Chinese invasion?

well this is a discussion which I thought should be avoided here

a strategic goal when 'defending indefensible' (assuming help wouldn't come, which is something you have to assume) is to make it a Pyrrhic victory of attackers; I'll leave it at that

with Chinese Rear Admirals, (surely he's NOT active duty), talking fondly of sinking a couple of American aircraft carriers? Yikes!, this takes dumb to a new level!

there's an even better quote inside the related article
‘Sink two aircraft carriers’: Chinese Admiral’s chilling recipe to dominate the South China Sea

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:
“The PLA is capable of taking over Taiwan within 100 hours with only a few dozen casualties,” said retired lieutenant general Wang Hongguang.

 

[weig2000]

a strategic goal when 'defending indefensible' (assuming help wouldn't come, which is something you have to assume) is to make it a Pyrrhic victory of attackers; I'll leave it at that

No, you don't have to leave it at that. I'll do it for you. Over the last two decades, various proposals have been made for Taiwan to "deter" and "strike back" against mainland China invasion, instead of just passively defending itself:

1. Throw medium range ballistic missiles against strategic mainland targets, e.g., Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Three Gorge Dam.
2. Leverage Taiwan's "air-superiority" to strike preemptively mainland military targets when the invasion is found to be imminent, e.g., missile launchers.
3. Lastly, Taiwan develops its nuclear weapons.

Obviously, only the last one has real deterrence power, in theory. The emphasis is on "theory." The real question would be: How would Taiwan develop nuclear weapons? What would be mainland China's response? I'll leave it at that.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the latest advice from Rand to Taiwan is essentially: Forget about defense in symmetric force and stop imagine wasting money on F-35 etc., invest in asymmetric weapon platforms, such as anti-air missiles. I expect in a few years, in updated advisory reports, the recommendation would be to prepare street fights and to fortify cities on the island.

Militarily, Taiwan is a lost cause. What is a significant military imbalance across the Taiwan Strait will become complete military dominance by mainland China in a decade or so, even taking into account of external intervention. But that doesn't mean mainland China will invade Taiwan any time soon. Hong Kong had never been militarily defensible from mainland China since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949, but China had never planned to recover Hong Kong by force even though it never recognizes the "unequal treaties" with GB. It'll recover Taiwan when time is ripe.

 

[FireyCross]

No, you don't have to leave it at that. I'll do it for you. Over the last two decades, various proposals have been made for Taiwan to "deter" and "strike back" against mainland China invasion, instead of just passively defending itself:

1. Throw medium range ballistic missiles against strategic mainland targets, e.g., Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Three Gorge Dam.
2. Leverage Taiwan's "air-superiority" to strike preemptively mainland military targets when the invasion is found to be imminent, e.g., missile launchers.
3. Lastly, Taiwan develops its nuclear weapons.

Obviously, only the last one has real deterrence power, in theory. The emphasis is on "theory." The real question would be: How would Taiwan develop nuclear weapons? What would be mainland China's response? I'll leave it at that.

Meanwhile, in the real world, the latest advice from Rand to Taiwan is essentially: Forget about defense in symmetric force and stop imagine wasting money on F-35 etc., invest in asymmetric weapon platforms, such as anti-air missiles. I expect in a few years, in updated advisory reports, the recommendation would be to prepare street fights and to fortify cities on the island.

Militarily, Taiwan is a lost cause. What is a significant military imbalance across the Taiwan Strait will become complete military dominance by mainland China in a decade or so, even taking into account of external intervention. But that doesn't mean mainland China will invade Taiwan any time soon. Hong Kong had never been militarily defensible from mainland China since the founding of the People's Republic in 1949, but China had never planned to recover Hong Kong by force even though it never recognizes the "unequal treaties" with GB. It'll recover Taiwan when time is ripe.

If Iraq and Afghanistan have taught us anything, it's that overwhelming military force doesn't gurantee results. There's no point in Taiwan trying to compete militarily - that's just wasted resources on a fight you can't win, but Taiwan is an incredibly dififcult place to hold, and there are things you can do to improve that, and make Taiwan an obvious quagmire that any invader would want to avoid.

Firstly, the natural terrain is hellish for an invading army. It's a warren of mountains, valleys and hideouts covered in dense jungle that make Vietnam look like a walk in the park. Secondly, all areas that aren't covered by the first are hyper dense cities full of tall, tighly packed buildings that are in turn full militarily trained citizens who will be both terrified and desperate.

Thirdly, Taiwan is an island. One coast is mountainous and ridiculously rugged. The other side is densely populated and heavily defended.

If Taiwan makes it clear that it's a trap that will let you in, but not out, an that pride will be the first casualty of the insurgency, it might be enough to make China think again, and allow Taiwan to make a deal.

Taiwan has something China wants, that is more than just the "rogue province", and that is a solution to the first island chain problem. Taiwan could potentially make an treaty - ceding small but strategically important territotory to China that would allow the latter to break through the island chain, in return for China recognising Taiwanese independence in some liguistic form and (i.e. recognising the ROC as the legitimate government of the "islands of Taiwan" - or something like that). For example, ceding the Orchid and Lesser Orchid islands off the west coast, along with Pratas island and the Eluanbi peninsula at the southernmost tip of the island would allow China secure passage through the chain, and to establish a naval base facing directly into the pacific - which could potentially give a win-win situation to both parties without a shot being fired. The population involved is small so would be sellable on Taiwan, given the benefits of a secure treaty and recognition with the Chinese government - and China could sell the strategic advantages and how a major geopolitical issue can be resolved without bloodshed.

 

[Insignius]

Negotiation sounds good, but you assume that the Taiwan has any say in this. Ceding a naval base to China with access to the Pacific is exactly what the US and Japan would want to prevent at ANY cost. A PLAN "Pacific Fleet" and boomers accessing the waters up to Guam and Hawaii, is america's nightmare. And this also means that China will be able to control and cut off Japanese SLOC both in the Taiwan strait and the West Pacific.

If there is anyone interested in a prolonged bloodbath, it is the US and Japan.

I think China is ready for a very bloody fight. We have recently seen the Chinese version of MOAB being tested. Those things are ideal for those tunnels and fortified cities on Taiwan and will create a huge morale shock due to the sheer brutality of their effect. There is no reason for China to develop this sort of huge Fuel Air Explosive for anything else but Taiwan.

Taiwan is in a very bad position: They have something that China absolutely needs for its secured second strike capability and its maritime future, while they also serve as the gate-guard of the US to imprison China behind the 1st island chain and serve as the defensive post guarding the lifeline of Japan. Three major powers all have their interests in Taiwan and none of them will leave them be. If I was Taiwanese, I would flee the country since only death awaits.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

If Iraq and Afghanistan have taught us anything, it's that overwhelming military force doesn't gurantee results. There's no point in Taiwan trying to compete militarily - that's just wasted resources on a fight you can't win, but Taiwan is an incredibly dififcult place to hold, and there are things you can do to improve that, and make Taiwan an obvious quagmire that any invader would want to avoid.

Firstly, the natural terrain is hellish for an invading army. It's a warren of mountains, valleys and hideouts covered in dense jungle that make Vietnam look like a walk in the park. Secondly, all areas that aren't covered by the first are hyper dense cities full of tall, tighly packed buildings that are in turn full militarily trained citizens who will be both terrified and desperate.

Thirdly, Taiwan is an island. One coast is mountainous and ridiculously rugged. The other side is densely populated and heavily defended.

If Taiwan makes it clear that it's a trap that will let you in, but not out, an that pride will be the first casualty of the insurgency, it might be enough to make China think again, and allow Taiwan to make a deal.

Taiwan has something China wants, that is more than just the "rogue province", and that is a solution to the first island chain problem. Taiwan could potentially make an treaty - ceding small but strategically important territotory to China that would allow the latter to break through the island chain, in return for China recognising Taiwanese independence in some liguistic form and (i.e. recognising the ROC as the legitimate government of the "islands of Taiwan" - or something like that). For example, ceding the Orchid and Lesser Orchid islands off the west coast, along with Pratas island and the Eluanbi peninsula at the southernmost tip of the island would allow China secure passage through the chain, and to establish a naval base facing directly into the pacific - which could potentially give a win-win situation to both parties without a shot being fired. The population involved is small so would be sellable on Taiwan, given the benefits of a secure treaty and recognition with the Chinese government - and China could sell the strategic advantages and how a major geopolitical issue can be resolved without bloodshed.

I don't think that is possible Taiwan is the biggest blot on the face of CCP the one promise that they haven't fulfilled yet. Time is running out for Taiwan soon It has to be resolved within this or next decades
Sending some one son or husband to certain death is not a easy decision to make

But Taiwan cannot postponed it forever So long they refuse to talk about reunification the clock is ticking come what may And the tipping point is close. CCP did make a promise at the end of civil war never again should Chinese kill another chinese But that is assuming that taiwan reciprocating the gesture

Now about Taiwan is a hilly country I don't buy that Taiwan is an island a small island For guerrilla war to need a large country to roam moving from one place to the other with the population provide the food and support. Taiwan does not have this large area. Another thing is technology you know why AG missile was developed because of the jungle of Vietnam war With free falling bomb it is hard to hit with pin point accuracy but with AG missile it is possible removing the camouflage of the jungle

Being small, You can easily close the avenue for food and war material if you holed up in the cave New weapon now can suck the oxygen out of the cave Like this MOAB that China just tested days ago depriving your lung of oxygen Death under this condition is not pretty It is great psychological warfare It is no accident they tested it after Prez Xi speech
Another thing is the moral will Taiwanese stand up and fight the mainland I doubt it more likely they will run away
China showcases own version of ‘Mother of All Bombs’
By Liu Xuanzun Source:Global Times Published: 2019/1/3 16:22:04

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A massive aerial bomb is airdropped by an H-6K bomber and causes a gigantic explosion at an unknown location. Photo: courtesy of NORINCO's website

A massive aerial bomb is airdropped by an H-6K bomber and causes a gigantic explosion at an unknown location. Photo: courtesy of NORINCO's website

From National Interest
In any event, it seems China now possesses some kind of very-large, non-nuclear weapon to arm its growing fleet of modern H-6K bombers. It's not hard to imagine applications for the combination of H-6Ks and Chinese MOABs.

"The massive blast can easily and completely wipe out fortified ground targets such as reinforced buildings, bastions and defense shelters," Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military analyst, told Global Times .

Taiwan's military plans to hide troops, vehicles and warplanes inside caves and tunnels during the opening phases of any Chinese assault on the island country. H-6Ks dropping powerful thermobaric or fuel-air explosives could threaten those underground hideouts.

 

[PikeCowboy]

Firstly, the natural terrain is hellish for an invading army. It's a warren of mountains, valleys and hideouts covered in dense jungle that make Vietnam look like a walk in the park. Secondly, all areas that aren't covered by the first are hyper dense cities full of tall, tighly packed buildings that are in turn full militarily trained citizens who will be both terrified and desperate.

^ ... what... like what?

Also, there's no comparison between Afghanistan and Taiwan. Is it even self-sufficient? Just capture the Capitol and the ports... the people who want to stay in the jungle can do that for as long as they want.

 

[weig2000]

If Iraq and Afghanistan have taught us anything, it's that overwhelming military force doesn't gurantee results.

Your analogy is laughable. Afghanistan is a mountainous, primitive country. No big power is going to throw limitless resources into it. Taiwan is part of Chinese territory and it is strategically important to China. China will do anything to recover it and keep it. Taiwanese are Chinese, no matter what they think of themselves. They share the same culture and the same language and are of the same race, despite any ideological differences. They're not tribe people and live modern life in a modern society. Millions of Taiwanese live and work in mainland now. When PLA lands on the island, they know it's game over and it's pointless to sacrifice themselves for idiotic delusion such as Taiwan Independence. If you understand Taiwanese at all, you'll understand what I'm talking about.

Should there be military invasion from mainland China at all, it would be strictly military operations with minimum collateral damage. It's not going to be some "fighting to the last person" kind of war. Ain't going to happen.

I understand we're sort of off topic now. This is going to be my last post on this topic.

 

[gelgoog]

If someone can conduct a successful naval blockade against Taiwan then it is only a question of time until they surrender.
This is not the case with Afghanistan. The main reason why that conflict never ended has been the porous border with Pakistan and the lack of law enforcement of the Pakistanese government along their mountainous North-Western border areas. Even if that border was closed somehow then it is quite likely the insurgents would find a way to move into Iran instead. Might not even be the same insurgents. That is not the case with Taiwan.

I already mentioned what I think would be a viable defense scenario for Taiwan in these forums, so I won't repeat it in detail here, it is similar to the strategy @weig2000 talked about.
I also think that spending too many resources on things which can be destroyed on a first strike scenario like aircraft is quite pointless for them. Take the Serbian war as an example. Even though the Serbs had a significant air force, they kept it in bunkers during the whole conflict, because they were afraid to lose those aircraft against much superior NATO forces. So it ended up being that the only significant deterrent they had was their anti-air missile defenses. There is no way Taiwan can counter China in amount of aircraft. What they need is a cost effective means to deny their use.

 

[advill]

China & Taiwan must continue "talking to each other". Only Chinese can hopefully talk sensibly to Chinese, regardless of their political ideologies, and WITHOUT interference from any country including the US. To the Americans our advise is MYOB. Trump has several serious domestic, regional & international problems to solve, so pl DO NOT DIVERT your Administration's attention to China to safeguard your interests. The One-China Policy was already settled during the time of Mao & Nixon.... Kissinger witnessed it. Let there be serious discussions between China & Taiwan with goodwill & aimed at PEACE & PROSPERITY for all Chinese people. Where the SCS is concerned let the countries involved in the long standing disputes negotiate with China --- and perhaps also get a reliable & respected mediator. I do not speak or am involved in any capacity with the Singapore Government. However, I believe Singapore can be a reliable Mediator for SCS. On hindsight I believe a few of our Singaporean leaders could be mediators - including perhaps Two of 4th Generation Leaders and an MFA team (Pl note that this comment is my own making without any local or foreign influence). Let there be Peace on Earth & Goodwill to All Men" - the alternative is unthinkable.

 

[AndrewS]

If Iraq and Afghanistan have taught us anything, it's that overwhelming military force doesn't gurantee results. There's no point in Taiwan trying to compete militarily - that's just wasted resources on a fight you can't win, but Taiwan is an incredibly dififcult place to hold, and there are things you can do to improve that, and make Taiwan an obvious quagmire that any invader would want to avoid.

Firstly, the natural terrain is hellish for an invading army. It's a warren of mountains, valleys and hideouts covered in dense jungle that make Vietnam look like a walk in the park. Secondly, all areas that aren't covered by the first are hyper dense cities full of tall, tighly packed buildings that are in turn full militarily trained citizens who will be both terrified and desperate.

Thirdly, Taiwan is an island. One coast is mountainous and ridiculously rugged. The other side is densely populated and heavily defended.

If Taiwan makes it clear that it's a trap that will let you in, but not out, an that pride will be the first casualty of the insurgency, it might be enough to make China think again, and allow Taiwan to make a deal.

Taiwan has something China wants, that is more than just the "rogue province", and that is a solution to the first island chain problem. Taiwan could potentially make an treaty - ceding small but strategically important territotory to China that would allow the latter to break through the island chain, in return for China recognising Taiwanese independence in some liguistic form and (i.e. recognising the ROC as the legitimate government of the "islands of Taiwan" - or something like that). For example, ceding the Orchid and Lesser Orchid islands off the west coast, along with Pratas island and the Eluanbi peninsula at the southernmost tip of the island would allow China secure passage through the chain, and to establish a naval base facing directly into the pacific - which could potentially give a win-win situation to both parties without a shot being fired. The population involved is small so would be sellable on Taiwan, given the benefits of a secure treaty and recognition with the Chinese government - and China could sell the strategic advantages and how a major geopolitical issue can be resolved without bloodshed.

Remember that the people in Vietnam and Afghanistan were dirt-poor and had nothing to lose. Plus who speaks their language.

In comparison, Taiwan is already a property owning wealthy middle-class country, which is economically integrated with China and which speak the same language.

If they fight till the end, they still die and lose everything.

And if China still offers a Hong Kong style settlement (as they do today), where Taiwan still retains a lot of autonomy for 50 years, what will the people of Taiwan choose to do?

Plus I discount the effectiveness of any Taiwanese insurgency.

Look at what has happened in Xinjiang, where facial recognition cameras are everywhere, airborne drones are prevalent, every car is tracked with GPS and everyone carries a mobile phone which is also tracked.