China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Dizasta1]

India has a common border with China lest they forget 1962 they are not going to do anything to provoke China
If they are foolish enough to do it China can easily severe the chicken neck And it will seperate India from Assam

The importance of studying geo-strategic affairs, is to understand things stand on the planning map, of the adversary. Doesn't take a genius to figure out which way the wind is blowing, when it comes to the American strategy in Asia. As I am sure China has been aware of this, many moons ago. You just have to look at where Western (i.e US/UK militaries) are sprawled out on the map. To the South, they're in close proximity to both China and Russia based in Afghanistan (for the 17 years, if I may add!!). To the East, they're based in South Korea and Japan. To the West, they have "some" sort of presence in Central Asia. Spherically, they are reinforced with presence in the Europe, Middle East, Diego Garcia & Guam. And now with the so-called agreement with India, they will have presence in the South, in proximity to China. For those that are gifted with sight of a "bat," let me spell it out what that means, "Encirclement!!!"

Sanctions reimposed on Iran, active tactics applied to undermine Pakistan, repetitive sanctions on Russia and a full blown trade war on China. Weakening of Europe, with deliberate and forced pressure to buy American LNG. One would consider this to be a pattern forming. But then again, we live in a world devoid of reason, rationality and common sense. If this isn't an active phase of applied tactics as a precursor to war.

Then I guess those who live in denial, may well be residents at Neverland Ranch. But hey, who are we to argue, right? We are "Third World" lowlives who don't any better. It's only the high n mighty that have the wisdom of the universe bestowed upon them. We are but mere mortals!

India, a basket case, is foolishly and dumbfoundedly pursuing a utopian world. Not thinking for a moment (not that they ever have), that both Russia and China have actively sought India to join them. Of course the idiots are blind as bats, and fail to see BRICS or SCO as prime examples of such attempts. And lest we forget, that the one who is typing this post, is a Pakistani (through & through). So if India's sworn enemy sees the bigger picture and has openly displayed its willingness to afford peace a chance (COAS Bajwa told Indian MP Sidhu, who attended PM Khan's swearing in ceremony, that Pakistan wants peace with India) . Then it's al too clear that India is pretty much a gone case and will (foolishly so) attempt to be the "ONE" to stand against "Chinese hegemony" on behalf of the benevolent and pure, Western World (pardon the sarcasm, I can't help it).

Those who think that this is nonsense, then take it from someone who knows and has studied his enemy, for the last 30 years. Yes, they've been duped and yes, they will try something "that stupid!" So please account for, and plan accordingly.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now noticed the tweet

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China firmly opposes those actions under the pretext of "freedom of navigation and overflight" to undermine the sovereignty and security interests of littoral countries along the

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, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Friday.

 

[Biscuits]

In response to Vice President Pence's threats, Chinese Foreign Ministry's spokeswoman commented: We don't owe nobody; we don't beg nobody; we don't fear nobody at all!

Yeah but how to demonstrate that concretely?

 

[Jura The idiot]

Today at 8:00 AM

now noticed the tweet

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China firmly opposes those actions under the pretext of "freedom of navigation and overflight" to undermine the sovereignty and security interests of littoral countries along the

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, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Friday.

plus
China urges U.S. to stop making waves in South China Sea
Xinhua| 2018-11-16 23:45:12

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China firmly opposes those actions under the pretext of "freedom of navigation and overflight" to undermine the sovereignty and security interests of littoral countries along the South China Sea, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Friday.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying made the remarks at a news briefing when answering a question related to U.S. Vice President Mike Pence's recent comment that South China Sea "doesn't belong to any one nation, and the United States will continue to sail and fly wherever international law allows."

"We have long said that freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea has never encountered any problem," Hua said, adding that "up to now, no country had ever provided any evidence of problems with freedom of navigation or overflight in the South China Sea."

"It can be seen that the so-called issue of navigation freedom is non-existent," Hua said.

China's position is very clear. The Chinese side is willing to join hands with other regional countries to firmly ensure freedom of navigation and overflight enjoyed by all countries under international law, she said.

"May I trouble you to remind the U.S. relevant individual that the United States has yet to ratify the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS)," the spokesperson said.

"If the U.S. side can at an early date ratify and abide by UNCLOS, then I think this will benefit even more the protection of peace and stability in the South China Sea," she added.

 

[PanAsian]

This is really big news if ASEAN declare that large warships are not welcome in ASEAN waters, which would include the SCS.

So the LCS based in Singapore would still be welcome for freedom of navigation purposes, but presumably not anything bigger like destroyers or carriers.

If I look at every country in ASEAN, I can see why they all would agree on such a statement.
Even Vietnam and the Philippines.

The Filipino President has publicly stated that China has already "won" the SCS, and really doesn't want large US warships and Chinese warships butting heads in the SCS and risking a war.
Vietnam has probably come to the same conclusion, along with the other countries.

After all, those bases dominate the sea lanes smack in the middle of the SCS.

So in the event of a US-China conflict, the Chinese military will be trying to keep those sea lanes open, to break any blockade.
In comparison, the US military will be trying to destroy the SCS bases and shut down the sea lanes to blockade China.
But geography means the ASEAN common market needs the sea lanes to stay open, no matter what.

It also reinforces how ASEAN will remain neutral in US-China disputes.

This should not be surprising at all given SEA history and trends.

 

[Jura The idiot]

noted

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From militarized atolls in the South China Sea to a growing Chinese navy looking increasingly aggressive, the head of the Indo-Pacom command lays out his needs and concerns.

By turning reefs and atolls in the disputed

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into

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, complete with anti-aircraft Surface-to-Air Missiles,

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has transformed “what was a great wall of sand just three years ago [into] a great wall of SAMs,” the US commander in the Pacific said here today.

The militarization of the vital waterway for commercial shipping has been a major concern of Washington and its Asian neighbors for the past several years. But China’s increasingly aggressive challenges of American naval vessels operating in what the US and its allies consider international waters — including

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of two ships in September — raises the specter of a deadly accident that might escalate into war. And if a war breaks out, the island bases become a strategic southward extension of China’s land-based defense against US ships and planes, known in the trade as

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(A2/AD).

As China builds more warships for its navy and continues to militarize its coast guard, Beijing has already dwarfed the fleet the United States can commit to the region, at least if you’re counting the number of hulls in the water. (Many of the Chinese ships are smaller, shorter-range coastal vessels, however). So, after the chief of Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM),

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, spoke to the annual Halifax Security Conference here, I asked him how he plans to keep up.

“We need a bigger Navy,” he said, noting how Navy leaders have repeatedly called for growing the fleet from

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to a 355-ship fleet. As the Chinese fleet continues to grow, he told me, “the capacity concern is going to become a greater concern in years to come.”

Aegis Ashore

One way to free up more ships to counter China across the Pacific, Navy leadership says, is to shift the ballistic missile defense mission from

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at sea to Aegis Ashore batteries and

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on land. That’s something both the current Chief of Naval Operations,

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, and his predecessor,

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, have advocated for years.

(It’s also taking a page from the Chinese playbook of

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, even if you have to build the island first. China’s extensive arsenal of

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was one of the major factors driving the Trump Administration to withdraw from the

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with Russia

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).

Davidson said his boss “wants to restore maneuverability back to the Navy” by shifting ballistic missile defense onshore. That would the Aegis cruisers and destroyers load their multi-purpose

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with other kinds of missiles — say,

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cruise missiles or

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anti-ship missiles, instead of a preponderance of

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anti-ballistic missile interceptors — and range freely across the vast Pacific, instead of plowing the waves back and forth near the cities they’re protecting.

The Aegis system was originally created to defend the fleet against large-scale Soviet air and missile attack:

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has brought this threat back to life, so the Nay wants to get its Aegis ships back to their original mission. “Those systems still have plenty of utility at sea defending against anti-ship ballistic missiles in the future, [including] ballistic missiles in space,” Davidson said. “We’ll need that against future threats that will threaten sea-based forces.”

Japan has already agreed to buy two Aegis Ashore systems, which will provide “essentially national missile defense for Japan,” Davidson said.

Earlier this year, Japan

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for two ground-based Aegis Ashore radar missile tracking stations built by Lockheed Martin. The

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already operates the ship-borne version of the system, while

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and

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are the only other countries to have built the ground-based system.

According to current plans, the Aegis Ashore units won’t be operational until 2025. When active, they will be able to link up with the ship-based systems to provide a deeper defense against

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missiles.

While China is building new ships, aircraft carriers and submarines at breakneck pace — last year, the Chinese navy became the world’s largest — Davidson also has his eye on Russian moves in the region.

“While most of

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occurs in other areas of the world, Russia is indeed increasingly active in the Pacific and it often seeks to block and disrupt the diplomatic efforts of others” in the region, he said, noting that Moscow has deployed three of its newest ballistic missile submarines to the Pacific over the past several years.

Russian capabilities in the Pacific are relatively modest, however, and Moscow has no plans to try to challenge the US or China for dominance of the seas in the region.

it's

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[AndrewS]

Mahathir tells US: No warships in Asean waters but small patrol boats are fine

SINGAPORE (BERNAMA) - Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has told the United States that it does not wish to see warships in Asean waters, but that small patrol boats are fine.

"Well, if the strategy does not include sending the Seventh Fleet into the area, we are welcome to that," he said, when asked on Asean's understanding and hopes on the US Indo-Pacific strategy.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Asean Summit, Tun Dr Mahathir said Malaysia has stated its stand that the seas around the Asean region should be free of big warships.

Read more

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From a strategic point of view, China would be happy to comply as well and keep large warships out of ASEAN waters.

China has a lot of coast guard ships and small patrol boats. And the Chinese Navy is based only a short distance away on the Chinese mainland.

It means ASEAN remains neutral between the US and China, and will allow commerce to proceed unhindered in the region.

That is in China's interest since it is the world's largest trading nation, and the vast majority of that trade passes through the SCS and ASEAN waters.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Bleak assessment of the US Navy staying power in western pacific due to the declining number of US navy ship Like they say quantity is the quality by itself
The mindless war against radical muslim waste a lot of treasury and men power and do nothing to strengthen US navy coupled with short term planning deal devastating blow to the power of US navy
As is now US navy still lead but for how long? And there seem to be no solution when your economy is created by manipulating wall street and Hollywood make believe instead of real economy where people actually produced thing

The End of U.S. Naval Dominance in Asia

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November 18, 2018

Editor’s Note: Although the Trump administration has made much of China's rise when it comes to trade, the president should be focused more on the security implications. Robert Ross of Boston College points to the decline in U.S. naval strength in East Asia as a game-changer for the regional order. Ross argues that the Navy's forward presence is strained, while China's capabilities are growing steadily. U.S. allies are aware of this painful reality, and their willingness to trust America to protect them will decline.

Daniel Byman

The rapid rise of the Chinese Navy has challenged U.S. maritime dominance throughout East Asian waters. The United States, though, has not been able to fund a robust shipbuilding plan that could maintain the regional security order and compete effectively with China’s naval build-up. The resulting transformation of the balance of power has led to fundamental changes in U.S. acquisitions and defense strategy. Nonetheless, the United States has yet to come to terms with its diminished influence in East Asia.


The New Balance of Power in East Asia

In early 2017, the Chinese Navy had

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ships. It now possesses nearly 350 ships and is already larger than the U.S. Navy. China is the largest ship-producing country in the world and at current production rates could soon operate 400 ships. It commissions nearly three submarines each year, and in two years will have more than 70 in its fleet. The Chinese Navy also operates growing numbers of cruisers, destroyers, frigates, and corvettes, all equipped with long-range anti-ship cruise missiles. Between 2013 and 2016, China commissioned more than 30 modern corvettes. At current rates, China could have 430 surface ships and 100 submarines within the next 15 years.

According to the

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, China’s fleet is also now more modern, based on contemporary standards of ship production. In 2010, less than 50 percent of Chinese ships were “modern;” in 2017, over 70 percent were modern. China’s diesel submarines are increasingly quiet and challenge U.S. anti-submarine capabilities. China’s ship-launched and air-launched anti-ship cruise missiles possess significant range and stealth and are guided by increasingly sophisticated targeting technologies. China’s Navy now poses a significant

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to the U.S. surface fleet. Moreover, its DF21C and DF26 conventional intermediate-range ballistic missiles also pose a challenge to U.S. assets in the region, and can target U.S. maritime facilities in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, and Guam.

Despite the growth of the Chinese Navy, the United States retains maritime superiority throughout East Asia. But the trend is what matters and the trend is less rosy. In early 2018, the size of the active U.S. fleet was

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ships. Going forward, according to the Congressional Budget Office, if the Navy’s budget is the average of its budget over the prior 30 years in real dollars and it maintains its aircraft carrier and ballistic submarine construction schedules, in 12 years the active naval fleet will decline to 237 ships. In six years, the U.S. submarine fleet will decline to 48 ships, and in eleven years the number of U.S. attack submarines will decline to 41 ships.

Both the Navy and the White House have pushed to grow the U.S. fleet, but budgets have not kept pace with their plans. In 2015, the Navy planned to increase the fleet to 308 ships by 2022, and the Trump administration plans a 355-ship navy. To reach

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ships, the Navy will have to spend 36 percent more than the average shipbuilding budget over the past 30 years, requiring a one-third increase in its current budget. If funding continues at the average over the past 30 years, the Navy will likely purchase 75 fewer ships than planned over the next three decades. To reach

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ships, the Navy will need a budget 80 percent more than the average Navy shipbuilding budget over the past 30 years and about 50 percent more than the average budget of the past six years. Moreover, the Navy’s

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are understaffed and in poor condition, contributing to delays in maintenance and reduced ship-days at sea. It is also currently experiencing significant challenges in meeting

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requirements,

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problems are increasing, and the U.S shipbuilding

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has been in decline over the past decade. Adequate staffing and construction of a larger fleet is by no means assured.

Reallocation of the federal budget to support ship construction is not likely. Mandatory spending and interest payments on the federal debt constitute 68 percent of the federal budget, and in recent years Washington has increased spending on Medicare, Medicaid, transportation, and veterans. The Pentagon already receives over 55 percent of the discretionary budget. The United States will not raise taxes to increase funding for the Navy; instead, it reduced taxes earlier this year. Nor can the United States print more money and increase the federal deficit to increase naval spending; the harm to the economy would offset any benefit that a larger navy might contribute to U.S. security. To contend with the national debt, the White House has told the Pentagon to expect that defense spending will “

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” in the near future. Finally, although the Navy, the Army, and the Air Force receive approximately equal shares of the annual defense budget, there is little resolve in Washington to reallocate funding within the military.

But even a 355-ship navy would be inadequate to contend with China’s capacity to continue and expand its naval build-up. As a share of GDP, the U.S. defense budget is nearly 75 percent larger than China’s defense budget. In contrast to the United States, China’s social welfare budget, including veterans’ benefits, is a minimal part of its national budget. China does not have a costly volunteer force, it can easily reallocate defense spending to support its navy, and it is not involved in distant wars that strain its military budget. It is better positioned that the United States for a maritime arms race.

Developments in the maritime balance have weakened the confidence of East Asian countries in the ability of the United States to fulfill its security commitments and they are improving security cooperation with China. South Korea recently reached an agreement with China to limit missile-defense cooperation with the United States and security cooperation with the U.S.-Japan alliance, and it has moved ahead with cooperation with North Korea, with Chinese support and despite U.S. opposition. The Philippines has reduced the scale of its defense cooperation with the United States and improved security ties with China. Beijing now constrains Vietnamese defense cooperation with the United States, as well. And China and Malaysia have begun joint military exercises and Malaysia has not supported U.S. policy on Chinese claims in the South China Sea. Most recently, China and ASEAN have

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their first joint naval exercise. The United States enjoys continued robust defense cooperation with all of these countries. But, as is the case with the maritime balance, it is the trend that matters and the trend is not good for U.S. security.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

(cont)

The U.S. Navy Adjusts

The combination of China’s rising naval capabilities, the PLA’s ability to target U.S. naval access to regional maritime facilities, and declining alliance cooperation has compelled the United States to adjust its security policy to contend with emerging Chinese war-fighting capabilities within East Asian seas—the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea.

The U.S. Navy is relying on technology to compensate for declining ship numbers. It is developing longer-range anti-ship

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missiles to contend with China’s anti-ship cruise missiles, and

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torpedoes to contend with China’s submarine fleet. It is developing “

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”

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to contend with the quantity of Chinese ships and their ability to “swarm” against U.S. ships. It is also developing directed energy and long-range hypersonic railgun technologies. Most significant, the Navy is focused on developing large quantities of

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as its long-term solution to declining ship numbers. It is developing and testing undersea

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and

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,

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reconnaissance drones that can operate in large numbers to allow simultaneous targeting of multiple Chinese platforms, carrier-based attack drones and

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, air-launched

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drones, and

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for minesweeping operations and

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warfare.

The United States now faces a future without assured access to the South China Sea and U.S. naval facilities in the region, and with reduced cooperation from its allies. To compensate, it is placing greater emphasis on its strategy for the “Indo-Pacific” region—a shift from its previous focus on the “Asia-Pacific.” This is more than just a name-change. Key to this Indo-Pacific strategy is greater access to Indian and Australian facilities that are secure from Chinese submarines and surface ships. These facilities will enable the U.S. Navy to contend with the Chinese Navy from outside the South China Sea and to deny the Chinese Navy access to the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific. Recent

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reflect U.S. efforts to expand its access to Indian naval facilities so that the U.S. Navy can operate in the Bay of Bengal and to the west of the Malaccan Strait. Similarly, expanding U.S.-Australian cooperation in Western Australia, including U.S. interest in Cocos Island, will enable the U.S. Navy to operate south of Indonesia to project power into the South China Sea. The Navy’s transition to operating from distant naval facilities and contending with China’s long-range capabilities has required it to develop extended ranges for its

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and EA-18G

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electronic warfare.

But these developments in acquisitions and expanded out-of-region operations cannot solve the Navy’s problem of a smaller fleet contending with a rising naval power. U.S. technological advantages over China narrow every year and quantity can be just as important as quality in maritime security.

Moreover, the increased tempo of the U.S. Navy’s operations in East Asia have led to inadequate ship maintenance, insufficient training of sailors, and over-extended tours at sea. Recent naval accidents in East Asia reflect the

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of up-tempo presence operations on the Indo-Pacific Fleet.


The Navy at Sea

The U.S. Navy has responded predictably to its declining capabilities, eroding dependability of its allies, and reduced access to regional facilities. It is increasing its shows of military force to establish greater U.S. resolve to resist the rise of China, even as its relative capabilities decline. During the Trump administration, U.S. freedom of navigation operations (FONOP) near Chinese-claimed maritime features has increased to approximately one mission every two months, doubling the pace of the Obama administration’s FONOP operations. In June 2018, after China increased its deployments on disputed islands, the United States sailed two ships within 12 miles of Chinese-claimed Paracel Islands. China

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with a simultaneous naval transit near the islands, signaling heightened maritime tension and greater Chinese resolve to challenge U.S. naval presence in its coastal waters. In

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and

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2018, the United States sent B-52 bombers near China’s artificial islands.

The United States conducts FONOPs to challenge the maritime claims of many countries each year, but only in the South China Sea does the U.S. Navy carry out multiple highly-publicized missions. And only in the South China Sea does the U.S. Navy conduct overflights of disputed territories with

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by U.S. journalists aboard the aircraft. These South China Sea operations aim to establish U.S.

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to contend with China’s rising naval capabilities, not to establish a U.S. commitment to the principle of freedom of navigation.

Despite the recent over-extension of the Pacific fleet and the resulting safety and training issues, the U.S. Navy has thus insisted that it will “confront” China and it has stressed the importance of its

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in East Asian waters and its plans to

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its regional operations. Secretary of Defense James

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reported that the United States will “demonstrate resolve through operational presence in the South China Sea.” In November 2018, the Navy carried out its

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exercise ever with Japan. But increased up-tempo U.S. naval presence in East Asia without the requisite underlying naval capabilities to contend with China’s rise will neither constrain China’s naval activism nor reassure U.S. allies. What it will do is further overextend the Navy and exacerbate the Navy’s existing maintenance and readiness problems, making U.S. ships more vulnerable to accidents at sea and cutting into the shipbuilding budget. This is especially the case as the Navy expands its operations on the Russian periphery.

This tension in the U.S. Navy’s East Asian strategy reflects the expected quandary of a declining power. The United States resists ceding greater regional influence to a rising great-power competitor. But its efforts to compensate for its eroding relative capabilities by expanding the Navy’s regional presence may well undermine its long-term ability to adjust to and contend with rising China.

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[PanAsian]

Bleak assessment of the US Navy staying power in western pacific due to the declining number of US navy ship Like they say quantity is the quality by itself
The mindless war against radical muslim waste a lot of treasury and men power and do nothing to strengthen US navy coupled with short term planning deal devastating blow to the power of US navy
As is now US navy still lead but for how long? And there seem to be no solution when your economy is created by manipulating wall street and Hollywood make believe instead of real economy where people actually produced thing

The End of U.S. Naval Dominance in Asia

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November 18, 2018

The US is distracting itself with foreign military matters when the real problems that need to be dealt with are about running a tighter ship in domestic governance. The distraction may well work mostly for special interests' gain at everyone else's expense, yet again.