China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Gloire_bb]

Yet, Iraq was invaded, not china.

Well, because CCP knew their job better than Saddam Hussein did. ;-)

China exploded its first atom bomb in 1964 and first hydrogen bomb in 1967.

Bomb matters when it's delivered. Desirably - when it can be delivered even in return.
1970s China couldn't even unleash full stockpile of warheads in first salvo, since nuclear delivery systems were limited to handful of new liquid-fueled IRBMs(in order of tens) and somewhat outdated H-6s in nuclear role. Smaller nuclear bombs, usable by tactical aircraft, as well as larger numbers of IRBMs appeared in China in 1980s.

In case of counter-force salvo - this force(already of doubtful survivability) had no proper early warning, couldn't be properly dispersed, and couldn't be kept in air(in case of bombers).

We are talking about China's not-so-obvious strategic depth, which provides deterrence even when they looked deceptively weak.

And I tell what Chinese strategic depth in these cases was called either Soviet Union(or Joseph Stalin) in early 1950s, or United States(or Jimmy Carter) in 1979 more than anything else.
You just couldn't engage power of such importance and avoid involvement of the other superpower.

Again, my point: apparent disparity means nothing. It's the geopolitical and strategic depth.

Yes, and on this we can agree.
But agreement in this case means not onl what China had(and has) it, but also what Vietnam, even w/o strategic depth/reserve has actual geopolitical(geostrategic) weight, which shouldn't be forgotten.
And this is the reason, because such countries can do much more than just shake in fear.

 

[sanblvd]

Just because the US enjoys privileged status as the world's policeman does NOT mean the world will accept unlimited money printing and unsound fiscal policy. In fact all signs are pointing to the exact opposite of this. Multiple countries have started setting up bilateral currency swaps that deliberately exclude the USD as an intermediary currency. Multiple countries have started accepting payment and paying for oil with non-USD currencies; the petrodollar is slowly unraveling as we speak. Multiple countries are sucking up all the gold and gold production in the world like there is no tomorrow (China probably most prominent among them). They sense danger on the horizon and are leaving the USD like rats off a sinking ship. And all of this has only been happening for the last several years.

BTW the USD is definitely NOT the only country that prints IOUs. Euro, Yuan, Yen, pound sterling are all printed money that is in excess of their countries' revenues and are not backed by anything except faith in their future ability to pay it back. No fiat currency has EVER survived, and for this exact reason. Also, people don't accept the USD "like crazy" anymore. China lost its status as largest foreign holder of US treasuries to Japan just last year. BOTH are actually dumping US treasuries, but China just happens to be dumping them faster than Japan.

I'm not really disputing what you are saying... but it seems like you didn't at all acknowledge my point either. Yes, if you print a stupid amount of money for no reason, people will get upset, yes, people will try to set up direct currency swap without going through dollars, and yes I know China holding has decreased, but on the other hand, that has more to do with the fact that China is trying to prop up the RMB more than anything else, and since then, their holding of US bond has rebounded in March.

And more importantly, by that logic, when the largest holder of currency China is dumping US dollars, you should have seen a run on the bank, aka everyone else selling as well, but you saw the opposite, when China was selling, other nation immediately scope it up and, and also by that logic, if there is a dump on the dollar, you should have seen a sharp jump on the interest rates to reflect the increase in risk, but that didn't happen, US bond rate held steady as demand came from elsewhere.

Why is that? It goes back to my ORIGINAL point which I'm trying to make, US position's in the world is unique right now, US strength is multifaceted, and whatever you like it or not, a lot of nations in the worlds actually enjoys the presence of US military for their own purposes, and that alone, holds up the US dollars.

Germany and Japan don't want to see US's house of card collapse and force US to bring back the troops home. Until another power that is strong enough to replace US military presence you will see US dollar as reverse currency for a few decades to come, it won't last forever, but it will last a lot longer than you think it would.

 

[delft]

I'm not really disputing what you are saying... but it seems like you didn't at all acknowledge my point either. Yes, if you print a stupid amount of money for no reason, people will get upset, yes, people will try to set up direct currency swap without going through dollars, and yes I know China holding has decreased, but on the other hand, that has more to do with the fact that China is trying to prop up the RMB more than anything else, and since then, their holding of US bond has rebounded in March.

And more importantly, by that logic, when the largest holder of currency China is dumping US dollars, you should have seen a run on the bank, aka everyone else selling as well, but you saw the opposite, when China was selling, other nation immediately scope it up and, and also by that logic, if there is a dump on the dollar, you should have seen a sharp jump on the interest rates to reflect the increase in risk, but that didn't happen, US bond rate held steady as demand came from elsewhere.

Why is that? It goes back to my ORIGINAL point which I'm trying to make, US position's in the world is unique right now, US strength is multifaceted, and whatever you like it or not, a lot of nations in the worlds actually enjoys the presence of US military for their own purposes, and that alone, holds up the US dollars.

Germany and Japan don't want to see US's house of card collapse and force US to bring back the troops home. Until another power that is strong enough to replace US military presence you will see US dollar as reverse currency for a few decades to come, it won't last forever, but it will last a lot longer than you think it would.

You make a lot of sense but the situation is still unstable. Free market economies have a limited time span and the current system is nearing its end. On the history of free market economies more particularly in the Middle Ages in Iraq and Italy as well as in and after the Middle Ages in the Low Countries and with extensions to the current situation see:

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[Iron Man]

I'm not really disputing what you are saying... but it seems like you didn't at all acknowledge my point either. Yes, if you print a stupid amount of money for no reason, people will get upset, yes, people will try to set up direct currency swap without going through dollars, and yes I know China holding has decreased, but on the other hand, that has more to do with the fact that China is trying to prop up the RMB more than anything else, and since then, their holding of US bond has rebounded in March.

And more importantly, by that logic, when the largest holder of currency China is dumping US dollars, you should have seen a run on the bank, aka everyone else selling as well, but you saw the opposite, when China was selling, other nation immediately scope it up and, and also by that logic, if there is a dump on the dollar, you should have seen a sharp jump on the interest rates to reflect the increase in risk, but that didn't happen, US bond rate held steady as demand came from elsewhere.

Why is that? It goes back to my ORIGINAL point which I'm trying to make, US position's in the world is unique right now, US strength is multifaceted, and whatever you like it or not, a lot of nations in the worlds actually enjoys the presence of US military for their own purposes, and that alone, holds up the US dollars.

Germany and Japan don't want to see US's house of card collapse and force US to bring back the troops home. Until another power that is strong enough to replace US military presence you will see US dollar as reverse currency for a few decades to come, it won't last forever, but it will last a lot longer than you think it would.

I think any alleged connection between the military value of US forces and the various nations' short-term or even long-term purchasing of US treasuries is completely non-existent. They aren't buying US treasuries to hold up the US economy from collapsing, they buy them because they feel it is profitable economically to do so, at least at that moment that they are making the purchase. I think it is just plain ridiculous for a country to say "well these treasuries suck but I'm going to do my part to keep the US alive". This just doesn't happen in the real world.

 

[AssassinsMace]

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Yes the Philippines was a sacrificial lamb.

 

[Blackstone]

Premier Li Keqiang: believe what we tell you and not your lying eyes!

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China is not militarizing the South China Sea, Premier Li Keqiang said on Friday, although he acknowledged that defense equipment on islands in the disputed waterway had been placed there to maintain "freedom of navigation".

China has drawn international criticism for large-scale building in the South China Sea, although Li told reporters in Australia the development was for civilian purposes only.

"China's facilities, Chinese islands and reefs, are primarily for civilian purposes and, even if there is a certain amount of defense equipment or facilities, it is for maintaining the freedom of navigation," Li said.

China claims most of the resource-rich South China Sea, through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. Neighbors Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims on the strategic waterway.

The United States estimates Beijing has added more than 3,200 acres (1,300 hectares) of land on seven features in the South China Sea over the past three years, building runways, ports, aircraft hangars and communications equipment.

The United States has conducted a series of freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea, raising tensions between Washington and Beijing.

 

[Equation]

Premier Li Keqiang: believe what we tell you and not your lying eyes!

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"China's facilities, Chinese islands and reefs, are primarily for civilian purposes and, even if there is a certain amount of defense equipment or facilities, it is for maintaining the freedom of navigation," Li said.

He said it's for defense, therefore China has the right to defend it's sovereignty. We're still waiting on the US excuses for it's FONOP around the SCS that is not even their territory. The rest of the free world can't trust the Regime Changer trouble maker and their press for the truth.

 

[sanblvd]

I think any alleged connection between the military value of US forces and the various nations' short-term or even long-term purchasing of US treasuries is completely non-existent. They aren't buying US treasuries to hold up the US economy from collapsing, they buy them because they feel it is profitable economically to do so, at least at that moment that they are making the purchase. I think it is just plain ridiculous for a country to say "well these treasuries suck but I'm going to do my part to keep the US alive". This just doesn't happen in the real world.

Yes I know right? My assessments sounds absolute absurd !!!! But you be surprised at the connection, its not that those nations love US and don't want it to fall, it has more to do with their own personal interest than anything else. Let me give you some current geopolitical situations.

1. No nation on earth in recent years has purchased as much military hardware as Saudi did, but Saudi's military is a joke with all the hundred of billions of arm they purchased from US, they are not closer to beaten the light infantry Houthi with their F-15 and precision bombs. In fact, do you not see the connection with more US involvement now that Trump is elected? Trump was correct about US's military serving as protection racket for the rest of the world, he is just shameless enough to admit it, but all previous administration just say its for "freedom and democracy"

2. Japan now is trying to do everything it can to tame down the growing China, why do you think Abe acted like a kiss ass to be the 1st one to visit Trump not even before his inauguration, and with another visit soon after trumps inauguration, and of course, don't let me mention Abe personally pressure Japanese auto makers to cancel Mexican plant expansion to please Trump. Do you really think Japan, whos country has never been invaded by another nation its history, suddenly growing such love and devotion for US, who invaded them, drooped 2 bombs on them?

3. How do you think former nations of USSR and former USSR sphere nation is feeling now that Putin has pulled up a Crimea? here is just a recent interview tih Lithuania’s president on FP

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you will find many such views from Georgia, Moldova, Estonia, Poland, Norway etc...

Like it or not, US is actually very much an Empire, but not in the traditional sense of empire, US is a empire of bases, and those bases serves as a balance for many nation's own geopolitical struggle with their own rivals. No nation besides US also has 10 carrier battle-groups, whos only purpose is hard power military projection. China's goal is very different than US, its trying to stop such US power projection to China's backyard but China does not have the ability to match US projection on its own, nor China should.

If you think US economy is becoming a house of cards.... you are wrong, because US economy is already a house of cards. No nation's economy is like United States, who's heavy reliance on consumer consumption at 70%, and a large percentage of that consumption is not based on income that produced actual things... but base on credit and debts!!!! credit card debts, mortgage debts, student loans, car loans, Fast Cash lending, pawn shops etc...

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When it come to economy and innovation, US is still ahead, but with with rise of China US won't have that monopoly anymore. But in what field do you think US will maintain its monopoly for the foreseeable future? Global military projection, that is why I think it will be very foolish if US closes all the bases in the world, because no bases = people don't need you for their own bidding, means people won't accept your IOU anymore.

 

[sanblvd]

I think any alleged connection between the military value of US forces and the various nations' short-term or even long-term purchasing of US treasuries is completely non-existent. They aren't buying US treasuries to hold up the US economy from collapsing, they buy them because they feel it is profitable economically to do so, at least at that moment that they are making the purchase. I think it is just plain ridiculous for a country to say "well these treasuries suck but I'm going to do my part to keep the US alive". This just doesn't happen in the real world.

Also I want to say that you are right that it doesn't work the way you described, when Japan or China is buying US debt they are not consciously making a decision that "by doing this, I keep US hegemony alive"

But yet the fact that when US sells treasure by the trillions the interest rate is stable with much demand, and when Greece tried to sell billions the interest rate skyrockets means people recognize the stability of US as a nation and its ability to pay back its debt and Greece does not, and that strength come from the 4 factor I listed before, but all 3 factor has waken a lot, the only factor that is holding up the best is the military along with its capability.

However I do suspect that China and Japan when making the decision might be more than just short time profit interest, Japan may actually do hope that by showing their support, they will get help. China on the other hand, as of right now do have a vested interest to keep US strong for the near future, a collapse in US consumer spending will not spell good for Chinese interest, nor a sudden pull back of US military from all of its global bases. It's this reason alone there will never be any war between US and China.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

It is finally completed and ready for deployment I can't imagine the vitriol comment below. I guess all the China basher will work overtime now

For even better picture check the AMTI website

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Warning that Beijing's military bases in South China Sea are ready for use
China now able to deploy combat aircraft and missile launchers to disputed islands at any time, says US thinktank

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Construction on Fiery Cross Reef, in the Spratly Islands, shown in 9 March satellite image released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. Photograph: CSIS/AMTI/DigitalGlobe/Reuters

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South-east Asia correspondent
Tuesday 28 March 2017 00.57 EDTLast modified on Tuesday 28 March 2017 01.19 EDT

China has largely completed three major military bases in the

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that have naval, air, radar and missile-defence facilities, according to a US thinktank.

“Beijing can now deploy military assets, including combat aircraft and

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, to the Spratly Islands at any time,” said the

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, part of Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The thinktank published images taken this month of what it calls the “big three” island air bases – Subi, Mischief, and Fiery Cross reefs – which it has analysed via commercial high-resolution satellite imagery for two years.

“China’s three air bases in the Spratlys and another

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will allow Chinese military aircraft to operate over nearly the entire South China Sea,” AMTI said. “The same is true of China’s radar coverage.”

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Construction on Mischief Reef. Photograph: CSIS/AMIT/DigitalGlobe/Reuters

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China denies it is militarising the South

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Sea, which is thought to have significant oil and gas reserves and is a route for half of the world’s commercial shipping. The reclamation of the islands has also had a devastating impact on some of the world’s most biodiverse coral reefs.

Beijing asserts sovereignty over maritime areas that span 3.5m sq km but are also claimed by Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Japan. China’s military build-up has become one of the US president Donald Trump’s most explosive foreign policy challenges.

Under Barack Obama’s administration, Washington claimed it was neutral on the question of sovereignty over the South China Sea islets, reefs and shoals, but also conducted regular air and naval patrols to assert its rights of passage.

But the US secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, said in January that the US should go further by

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to the islands. Last week the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang,

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defence equipment had been placed on islands to maintain “freedom of navigation”.

Chinese warships frequently radio US aircraft in the region, warning them not to approach. And last month a Chinese military aircraft had an

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with a US navy surveillance aircraft over the area, the US Pacific command announced.

AMTI said China had installed HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles at one island as well as anti-ship cruise missiles. It had also built enough hangars for 72 combat aircraft and several larger bombers.

The group’s director, Greg Poling, said the images showed new radar antennas on Fiery Cross and Subi: “So look for deployments in the near future.”

Reuters contributed to this report