The biggest risk with Trump doesn't seem to be a question of his bite or bark, but rather his temperament, inexperience and sources of information.
Trump most likely genuinely doesn't have a clue when it comes to a lot of important subjects, and he may be getting really bad advice from his preferred alternative news sources and close advisors.
I strongly suspect he does not fully grasp the full implications of a lot of the big calls he is making. And this is where his temperament is key.
He is a classic wannabe alpha, and will dig his heels in even if he know he is wrong to avoid admitting he might have made a mistake.
China has been smart so far to avoid publicly blasting him, so that has given him the time and, more importantly, avoided triggering his defensive instincts, so he can calm down and quietly backtrack, as he has with Taiwan.
The risk is that he says or does something, based on bad information and/or a lack of understanding of the consequences, as to force Beijing to issue a strong, public and immediate rebuttal or response.
A classic example might be if he goes through the loony toon idea of blockading China's islands or sending ships inside the lagoons of the islands to conduct surveying.
Such a course of action will rapidly trigger a series of escalation acts and counter-acts, that will rile him up and make him go with his gut instinct to always double down and assume the other guy will blink first. Before he knows it, he is so far down the road to war his ego won't allow him to back down from it even if he knows full well it will be a disaster and never wanted for things to go so far.
