China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Blackstone]

Trump's a trumpeter playing hardball, it's also a fair reminder that the US possesses military superiority all the way up the escalation chain including at the nuclear level. Especially when the latest raft of technologies are widely (or even more widely) deployed from stealth aircraft and SSNs to BMD, railguns, and lasers.

One could argue whether it's wise for Trump to play hardball with China, but US the military is still about a dozen to fifteen years ahead of the CCP military, and in the digital age, that's a vast gulf. Distance, geography, and balance of resolve favor China, but combat capability, training, experience, logistics, and hardware all favor the US. It is what it is.

 

[PanAsian]

Will China step up?

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WORLD NEWS | Tue Jan 31, 2017 | 6:57am EST
Philippines' Duterte asks China to patrol piracy-plagued waters

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte on Tuesday said he had asked China to help in the fight against Islamic State-linked militants by sending ships to patrol southern waters plagued by raids on commercial vessels.

Speaking to newly promoted army generals, Duterte said he had sought China's help in dangerous waters in the south to check the activities of Abu Sayyaf, a Muslim rebel group sustained by piracy and kidnap-for-ransom activities.

A surge in piracy off parts of the Philippines is forcing ship-owners to divert vessels through other waters, pushing up costs and shipping times.

Duterte said piracy in the Sulu Sea between eastern Malaysia and the southern Philippines would escalate to levels seen in Somalia, and raise insurance costs for firms and increase prices of consumer goods and services.

"We would be glad if they have their presence there ... just to patrol," Duterte said, adding that China could send coastguard vessels, not necessarily "gray" warships.

"In the Malacca Strait and here in Sulu Sea remains to be a big problem," he said. The Malacca Strait, between Malaysia's west coast and the Indonesian island of Sumatra, has over the years also been plagued by pirates.

He did not say if China had responded.

The Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia had an agreement to patrol and tackle the Abu Sayyaf in the Sulu and Celebes Sea after they kidnapped the crew of Indonesian and Malaysian tug boats and South Korean and Vietnamese merchant ships.

Philippine Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana last week said cooperation might be expanded to include Brunei and Singapore. The United States has also expressed concern about the security problem and held exercises with Malaysia and the Philippines last year.

Lorenzana said on Tuesday the military had intensified operations on land with the aim of defeating Abu Sayyaf within six months.

(Reporting by Manuel Mogato; Editing by Martin Petty, Robert Birsel)

 

[vesicles]

Will China step up?

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This would be a perfect opportunity for China. I am almost 100% sure that China will agree, especially since they are already doing these patrols in the Gulf of Aden. Expanding the operations will allow them to gain more experience, show goodwill to the people of SEA and legitimize their naval presence in the SCS.

I know that the Chinese can send their navy to the SCS any time they want, but always with worry of escalating tensions. With this request from the Philippino president, they can send the naval vessels in without any issues. And their naval presence will be seen as the norm, not an attempt to escalate tension.

 

[weig2000]

Will China step up?

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Interesting he did not ask the US for help, considering that officially the US is the treaty ally...

 

[kwaigonegin]

Interesting he did not ask the US for help, considering that officially the US is the treaty ally...

they would be very silly if they don't. It's a great way for them to earn 'street cred' in that neighborhood.

 

[Janiz]

Interesting he did not ask the US for help, considering that officially the US is the treaty ally...

First of all - where did you find info that they didn't?
Second - why they would call US CG cutters for patrol duties in SCS? Why not Italy, Spain of France?

 

[weig2000]

First of all - where did you find info that they didn't?
Second - why they would call US CG cutters for patrol duties in SCS? Why not Italy, Spain of France?

First of all - I was responding to the Reuters report. That report did not mention anything that the Philippine has asked the US help, which is quite noticeable given the context of the report. I was also not aware of other reports that the US help was sought after in this case. If you knew anything like that, please provide the source. And even if the Philippine had also asked the US help, it would still be very significant that the Philippine seek help from China, considering their treaty alliance with the US and the traditional relationship between the two military, as well as the nominal territory disputes in SCS between the Philippine and China.

Second of all - Did they call US CG cutters for patrol duties in this particularly case? Please provide the source. I'm interested, but see above.

A piece of advice: before you bark, please check out the tree first.

 

[B.I.B.]

This would be a perfect opportunity for China. I am almost 100% sure that China will agree, especially since they are already doing these patrols in the Gulf of Aden. Expanding the operations will allow them to gain more experience, show goodwill to the people of SEA and legitimize their naval presence in the SCS.

I know that the Chinese can send their navy to the SCS any time they want, but always with worry of escalating tensions. With this request from the Philippino president, they can send the naval vessels in without any issues. And their naval presence will be seen as the norm, not an attempt to escalate tension.

Philippine Senator Peter Cayetano went to China a few weeks ago with a wish list
and returned without a firm commitment by China.
I wonder if this was one of the items on the list?

 

[advill]

China's SCS Strategy is wise...... Chine Proverb: "With True Friends, Even Water Drunk is Sweet". May blessings be upon all people of goodwill in the Year of the Rooster.

 

[A.Man]

This is a very interesting development:

Philippines' Rodrigo Duterte wants China to patrol international waters

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Jan. 31 (UPI) -- Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he would be "glad" if China sent ships to patrol international waters in Southeast Asia.

Duterte made the comment in a speech Tuesday evening during an oath-taking ceremony for armed forces of the Philippines officers in Manila. He said China could patrol international waters similarly to how they did off the coast of Somalia, referring to Chinese ships protecting trade routes from pirates as part of an international effort.

"By the way, I also asked China, if they can patrol the international waters without necessarily intruding into the territorial waters of countries. We would be glad to have their presence there," Duterte said. "Just to patrol like what they did in Somalia."

Duterte said China could help protect trade routes in Southeast Asia from the threat of terrorism and piracy, particularly in the Malacca Strait and the Sulu Sea. He said if trade routes become more dangerous or are blocked, international trade routes could shift, becoming more expensive, and companies could pay higher insurance rates -- meaning consumers would pay higher prices for goods and services.

On Sunday, Duterte said he ordered the National Police to

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and to "cleanse" itself from corruption.

Duterte's speech is available to view online.

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