China's SCS Strategy Thread

Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
kf6bka said:
As Trump Takes Office, China Bashers Are Having a Field Day

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The article is too long to post but it's worth the read.

Rich
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Talk's cheap and these neocons & liberal interventionists have only talk left in their diminishing toolbox to shape public opinion and drive national policy. Putting aside the notion suggesting acts of war on another nuclear-armed great power is crazy, poll after poll show Americans want no part of conflicts in the ECS and SCS. That's the real world, and these people know it. That's why they cry over their beer and opine on woulda, coulda, and shoulda.
 
supercat

supercat

Major
Hopefully, as China-Russia cooperation increases, China's reliance on the South China Sea as its strategic petroleum transit route will be further reduced.

Russia beats Saudi Arabia as China's top crude oil supplier in 2016

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and
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| BEIJING

Russia overtook Saudi Arabia in 2016 to became China's biggest crude oil supplier for the first year ever, customs data showed on Monday, boosted by robust demand from independent Chinese "teapot" refineries.

Russian shipments surged nearly a quarter over 2015 to about 1.05 million barrels per day (bpd), the data showed, with Saudi Arabia coming in a close second with 1.02 million bpd, up 0.9 percent in 2016 versus the previous year. China is the world's second-largest oil buyer and the fastest-growing major importer.

While Saudi Arabia counts China's state oil firms as backbone clients through long-term supply contracts, China's independent refineries - nicknamed "teapots" due to their smaller processing capacity - saw Russia as a more flexible supplier.

For the teapot plants, authorized to import crude oil for the first time in late 2015, shipments from Russia's eastern ports are easier to process, coming in smaller cargo sizes at a closer proximity.

Russia may be able to maintain the top spot in 2017 as it expands exports of its East Siberian-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline blend crude. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is set to shoulder the lion's share of supply cuts agreed to last year by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers.


"OPEC cuts means Gulf producers take a hit in terms of market share, even though most of their cuts are to Europe and US ...Russia has an ESPO expansion coming up as well as supplies via Kazakhstan earmarked for China," said Michal Meidan of consultancy Energy Aspects.

State-run Saudi Aramco is expected to look to a new refinery under state-run CNOOC to lift sales.

For December, Russia also held the top spot with supplies up 4.8 percent from the same month a year earlier at 1.19 million bpd. Meanwhile Saudi sales dropped nearly 20 percent from a year earlier to 841,820 bpd, data from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed.


Total crude oil imports in December hit a record as refiners stepped up purchases ahead of a deal by oil-producing countries to reduce supply and bolster prices.

For the whole of 2016, imports gained nearly 910,000 bpd over 2015, the strongest annual growth on record and mostly driven by teapot buying.

Third-largest supplier Angola shipped 13 percent more crude last year versus 2015, while No. 4 seller Iraq recorded similar growth.

China also boosted imports from South American producers last year, with growth of 37.6 percent from Brazil and 26 percent from Venezuela, the data showed.

Imports from Iran expanded nearly 18 percent last year to a record 624,260 bpd, as Chinese state oil firms started to lift barrels from their investments in Iranian oilfields in addition to term supply agreements.

(Reporting by Chen Aizhu and Meng Meng; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell and Christian Schmollinger)
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supercat

supercat

Major
Remember Tillerson barked at China during his confirmation hearing? Well, there was a reason:

Exxon-Vietnam gas deal to test Tillerson’s diplomacy
...

While within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), the deepwater field is also in an area China claims on its nine-dash map, which lays wide-ranging claim to 90% of the entire South China Sea. In 2011, China indirectly warned Exxon Mobil soon after the company announced a big gas find at Block 118, contained in the Blue Whale project zone, saying foreign companies should refrain from exploration in the contested area. Other multinational energy companies appeared to buckle under China’s pressure by abandoning their exploration activities with Vietnam.

...
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Here is the map of block 118 and the U-shaped line claimed by China:

vietnam-offshore-blocks.jpg


According to this source
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, the project zone, called "Blue Whale", is very close to the U-line.

I think it's a good ideal to start a joint China-Vietnam venture around the Triton Island (part of Paracel Islands) as suggested here
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A side note: The U.S. officially withdrew from TPP.
 
A

advill

Junior Member
Trump Administration is venturing into a Trade War. Let's see whether the American people will prosper by being protectionists, or will suffer because of his isolationist/protectionist Trade policies. The US better not start a War/hostilities in the South China Sea, and instigate other parties to join in their supremacy objectives. This is OUR region and we must never be fooled by any outside self-interest Power. Hopefully, the Americans have learnt their "lessons" in the ME, and in the past in Vietnam. We now have a new US President who is not supported by half plus 3 million (popular votes) of his own citizens. He should therefore think very carefully of making any aggressive moves. It clearly showed over recent TV the number of Protestors in American and in many cities of the world, highlighting this President's unpopularity. His Campaign Manager has created a new world "Alternative Facts" for LIES & BS. As this new Trump Administration introduces new Economic & Security policies, we should observe and respond accordingly, with alternative strategies. Since the dawn of the New Millennium, several leading Economists & Professionals have predicted that the 21st Century belongs to Asia i.e. with the growth of China, Asian Tigers & other Asian Economies. Let that this happen with our continued cooperation on trade with friendly countries throughout the world.
 
Blackstone

Blackstone

Brigadier
supercat said:
Hopefully, as China-Russia cooperation increases, China's reliance on the South China Sea as its strategic petroleum transit route will be further reduced.

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Which makes good strategic sense for the Trump administration to chip away at Sino-Russsian relations and look for opportunities to drive wedges between China and Russia. I think there are some opportunities for President Trump to do that, and it all starts with improving US-Russia relations, leading to cooperation on shared interests, starting with countering Islamic extremism in the Middle East. If that works out well, then it opens the door on other shared interests too.
 
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