China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

Tossing fuel into the fire?

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Tit for tat for sure next move the opfor. Depending on the response It won't be long until we see couple of type 56 and Yuan in the harbor


The Chinese military has deployed an advanced surface-to-air missile system to one of its contested islands in the South China Sea according to civilian satellite imagery exclusively obtained by Fox News, more evidence that China is increasingly "militarizing" its islands in the South China Sea and ramping up tensions in the region.

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The imagery from ImageSat International (ISI) shows two batteries of eight surface-to-air missile launchers as well as a radar system on Woody Island, part of the Paracel Island chain in the South China Sea.

It is the same island chain where a U.S. Navy destroyer sailed close to another contested island a few weeks ago. China at the time vowed “consequences” for the action.

Woody Island is also claimed by the Republic of China (Taiwan) and by Vietnam.

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Diagram including a satellite image of the beach from Feb. 14. (ImageSat International)

The missiles arrived over the past week. According to the images, a beach on the island was empty on Feb. 3, but the missiles were visible by Feb. 14.

A U.S. official confirmed the accuracy of the photos. The official said the imagery viewed appears to show the HQ-9 air defense system, which closely resembles Russia’s S-300 missile system. The HQ-9 has a range of 125 miles, which would pose a threat to any airplanes, civilians or military, flying close by.

This comes as President Obama hosts 10 Asian leaders in Palm Springs, many of those leaders concerned over China’s recent activity in the South China Sea. "The United States will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows," Obama said Tuesday.

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Images of the Woody Island beach on Feb. 14 (left) and Feb. 3. (ImageSat International)

The Pentagon was watching the developments closely, a defense official told Fox News. "The United States continues to call on all claimants to halt land reclamation, construction, and militarization of features in the South China Sea," the official said.

In the past two years, China has built over 3,000 acres of territory atop seven reefs in the area. There are a total of three runways built on three of the artificial islands.



 

 

[Jeff Head]

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Tit for tat for sure next move the opfor. Depending on the response It won't be long until we see couple of type 56 and Yuan in the harbor


The Chinese military has deployed an advanced surface-to-air missile system to one of its contested islands in the South China Sea according to civilian satellite imagery exclusively obtained by Fox News, more evidence that China is increasingly "militarizing" its islands in the South China Sea and ramping up tensions in the region.

ADVERTISEMENT

The imagery from ImageSat International (ISI) shows two batteries of eight surface-to-air missile launchers as well as a radar system on Woody Island, part of the Paracel Island chain in the South China Sea.

It is the same island chain where a U.S. Navy destroyer sailed close to another contested island a few weeks ago. China at the time vowed “consequences” for the action.

Woody Island is also claimed by the Republic of China (Taiwan) and by Vietnam.

Related Image

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Diagram including a satellite image of the beach from Feb. 14. (ImageSat International)

The missiles arrived over the past week. According to the images, a beach on the island was empty on Feb. 3, but the missiles were visible by Feb. 14.

A U.S. official confirmed the accuracy of the photos. The official said the imagery viewed appears to show the HQ-9 air defense system, which closely resembles Russia’s S-300 missile system. The HQ-9 has a range of 125 miles, which would pose a threat to any airplanes, civilians or military, flying close by.

This comes as President Obama hosts 10 Asian leaders in Palm Springs, many of those leaders concerned over China’s recent activity in the South China Sea. "The United States will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows," Obama said Tuesday.

Related Image

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Images of the Woody Island beach on Feb. 14 (left) and Feb. 3. (ImageSat International)

The Pentagon was watching the developments closely, a defense official told Fox News. "The United States continues to call on all claimants to halt land reclamation, construction, and militarization of features in the South China Sea," the official said.

In the past two years, China has built over 3,000 acres of territory atop seven reefs in the area. There are a total of three runways built on three of the artificial islands.



 

Doing this on Woody Island, IMHO< is a completely different thing than doing it on the true SCS reefs that have been reclaimed.

This article seems to be intermingling and mixing up the two.

 

[Blitzo]

Doing this on Woody Island, IMHO< is a completely different thing than doing it on the true SCS reefs that have been reclaimed.

This article seems to be intermingling and mixing up the two.

I think the media has lost a lot of the nuance and appreciation of actual maritime geography and relative distance in the SCS quite a long time ago in reporting stories in the region.

I'm also interested in whether the deployment is a permanent one or a temporary one. I can't imagine such a deployment there being sustainable in the long term without quite a sizable logistics tail.

 

[SamuraiBlue]

I can't find the radar which should be essential in these systems as well.
I'm sure they are temporary at the moment since they would have constructed more shielding/barriers if they were permanent.
Sea winds really don't work well with anything made from steel.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

I can't find the radar which should be essential in these systems as well.
I'm sure they are temporary at the moment since they would have constructed more shielding/barriers if they were permanent.
Sea winds really don't work well with anything made from steel.

There are all kind of newly built building on the island I don't think it is temporary. The radar shown in the middle of the picture marked by red rectangular. Here is view from Taiwan. They are sending the message loud and clear. Look at the timing .Plus those recently reclaimed island is not ready yet. It will take at least until the end of the year until all the building and other infrastructure ready

TAIPEI/WASHINGTON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - China has deployed an advanced surface-to-air missile system to one of the disputed islands it controls in the South China Sea, Taiwan and U.S. officials said, ratcheting up tensions even as U.S. President Barack Obama urged restraint in the region.

Taiwan defense ministry spokesman Major General David Lo told Reuters the missile batteries had been set up on Woody Island. The island is part of the Paracels chain, under Chinese control for more than 40 year but also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam.

"Interested parties should work together to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea region and refrain from taking any unilateral measures that would increase tensions," Lo said on Wednesday.

A U.S. defense official also confirmed the "apparent deployment" of the missiles, first reported by Fox News.

Images from civilian satellite company ImageSat International show two batteries of eight surface-to-air missile launchers as well as a radar system, according to Fox News.

News of the missile deployment came as Obama and leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations concluded a summit in California, where they discussed the need to ease tensions in the region but did not include specific mention of China's assertive pursuit of its claims in the South China Sea.

China claims most of the South China Sea, through which more than $5 trillion in global trade passes every year, and has been building runways and other infrastructure on artificial islands to bolster its claims.

"We discussed the need for tangible steps in the South China Sea to lower tensions including a halt to further reclamation, new construction and militarization of disputed areas," Obama told a news conference.

The United States has said it will continue conducting "freedom of navigation patrols" by ships and aircraft to assure unimpeded passage through the region, where Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan have rival claims.

RISING TENSIONS
Mira Rapp-Hooper, a South China Sea expert from of the Center for a New American Security, said it was not the first time that China has sent such weapons to the Paracels, under Chinese control since 1974.

"I do think surface to air missiles are a considerable development," she said. "If they have been deployed they are probably China's effort to signal a response to freedom-of navigation operations, but I don't think it is a totally unprecedented deployment."

A U.S. Navy destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels chain last month in a move the Pentagon said was aimed at countering efforts by China, Vietnam and Taiwan to limit freedom of navigation. China condemned the U.S. action as provocative.

China has said it would not seek militarization of its South China Sea islands and reefs, but that did not mean it would not set up defenses.

"Woody Island belongs to China," said Ni Lexiong, a naval expert at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.

"Deploying surface-to-air missiles on our territory is completely within the scope of our sovereign rights. We have sovereignty there, so we can choose whether to militarize it."

Taiwan President-elect Tsai Ing-wen said tensions were now higher in the region.

"We urge all parties to work on the situation based on principles of peaceful solution and self-control," Tsai said.

The missiles arrived at Woody Island over the past week, Fox News said. According to the images, a beach on the island was empty on Feb. 3, but the missiles were visible by Feb. 14, it reported.

 

[Blackstone]

Doing this on Woody Island, IMHO, is a completely different thing than doing it on the true SCS reefs that have been reclaimed.

This article seems to be intermingling and mixing up the two.

Which shows how little real understanding the main stream media and most in Congress have on the region's sovereignty disputes.

 

[plawolf]

It's like western leaders cannot learn. It's the same pattern over and over again.

They push China; China says, 'don't push us or there will be consequences', western leaders ignore or dismiss it and pushes China again; consequences happen and western leaders go 'WTF man'?

In terms of overall strategy, it's just absolutely silly what the west is doing in the SCS.

It is trying to make a fight over an issue that was never really threatened, doing it in an area who's geography overwhelmingly favours China, and in a situation where the balance of power and available options overwhelming favours China.

China has a vast range of gradual escalation options in the region, the overwhelming majority of which falls well below the threshold of triggering armed conflict. The west has exceptionally few options it can use without triggering a war.

As has been just demonstrated, China can deploy defensive missiles on its islands. An escalation, but a small one that both benefits China and further its interests, while at the same time nowhere near strong enough to warrant any of the counter escalation moves the west can reasonably take without an unacceptable risk of triggering an actual shooting war.

This is just the start. After fighters and SAMs, China could deploy AShMs, LACMs, even ballistic missiles to it's islands. Each done using salami tactics and in response to further western moves.

Even without those new islands being armed to the back teeth, the geography and force dispotions overwhelming favours China in any armed conflict. With those islands fully militarised, China's dominance in the region would be near unassailable.

The west didn't know China have island build capabilities it did have, a strategic blunder, but at least an understandable one. However, pretty much every single tactical and strategic decision made since has been one mistake after the other.

By needlessly ratcheting up tensions with its FON patrols as a method to pressure and try to coerce Beijing, all Washington has managed to do is provide both the motivation and justification for China to fully arm those new islands.

Without US FON patrols, China deploying advanced arms on the islands would have raised a lot of eyebrows. However, under the backdrop of said FON patrols, those deployments seem far less unreasonable, and looks to be a reaction rather than premeditated choice.

Force and intimidation was categorically the wrong approach to take here.

I think the fundamental problem with western strategy in general is that too many of their key players treat it like a poker game, and it's military have a way too high opinion of itself.

This isn't a game of poker. Everyone can see everyone else's cards, and it's extremely rare when one side completely and fundamentally misreads the strengths and capabilities of the other.

Before getting involved in a game of escalation chicken, one should look ahead to the ultimate position - if neither side backs down and we both follow this to its ultimately conclusion, who would have the upper hand?

In the SCS, China can go toe to toe with anyone, including the US. It's pretty much the perfect place on earth for China to fight a war, and it's only to get better for China as its complete its island building and development.

The SCS is close enough to allow China to employ forces based on the mainland, yet far enough to make any enemy attack on the Chinese mainland a massive escalation.

The waters in the area, especially around the potential combat zones around islands and features, are overwhelming shallow and complicated. Giving huge advantages to China's vast coastal defense oriented fleets of 022 FACs, 056 light frigates and SSKs etc over USN assets designed for the deep open oceans.

Where the USN has the experience advantage in the open oceans, the PLAN holds the edge in the littorals.

For someone as senior as Admr Harris to be describing those islands as 'easy targets' seems like a disturbingly overconfident position to take.

They may be easy targets now, when they are completely undefended. But if push comes to shove, those islands could quite easily and very quickly be transformed into fortresses in every sense of the word.

That, added to the location, geography, force dispotions and public sentiment towards the area in question of the two sides, would easily make the SCS hands down the most dangerous and difficult place the USN could choose to pick a fight anywhere on the planet.

China recognises this, yet America seems blind to it. That is why the old dynamics and tactics simply will not work here.

Whereas elsewhere, America might get away with being able to bully China into backing down even though everyone knows they have a crappy hand and are just bluffing; in the SCS, China has enough advantages that it can afford to go all the way if that's as far as America wants to take it. So China isn't backing down on this one.

America needs to recognise that, and recognise that fast and adjust its strategy and tactics fast. Because the path they are on now has a distressingly high probability of leading to open conflict, made all the more alarming because America seems largely oblivious to that possibility, and is sleepwalking towards dangerous territory.

 

[AssassinsMace]

Australia to ask China if others will get access to reclaimed South China Sea islands
Reuters

• Online: Feb 16, 2016
• Print: Feb 17, 2016
• Last Modified: Feb 16, 2016

TOKYO – Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Tuesday she will seek clarification from China about how it intends to use reclaimed islands in the South China Sea, including whether Beijing intends to grant access to other countries.

China claims much of the South China Sea, through which more than $5 trillion of trade moves annually. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have rival claims.

“In the past (Chinese) Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said they will be public goods, so I am seeking more detail as to how other nations could access these public goods,” Bishop said of the islands.

“Depending upon the answer he gives, we will look at the situation,” she told reporters in Tokyo, where she met her Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida.

Bishop, who will fly to Beijing later on Tuesday for talks with Wang and other Chinese officials, would not say whether Australia would seek access to the islands.

Beijing has asserted its claim in the region with island building projects that have reclaimed more than 1,200 hectares (3,000 acres) of land since 2013, according to the Pentagon.

It tested for the first time last month the 3,000-meter runway built on Fiery Cross Reef by landing several civilian airliners from Hainan island.

China has accused Washington of seeking maritime hegemony in the name of freedom of navigation after a U.S. Navy destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles (22 km) of a disputed island in the Paracel chain of the South China Sea in late January.

Sending out feelers to end this grave miscalculation?

 

[Blitzo]

Sending out feelers to end this grave miscalculation?

A very reasonable question by the Australian FM, and one which I hope the Chinese will give a sensible and positive answer to.

I remember late last year I suggested that the islands could eventually be used to host some limited multinational exercises such as for search and rescue and disaster relief. Now that I think about it they could also be very useful for assisting those efforts in event of an actual real world event.

Obviously use of the reclaimed islands would be contingent on an agreement by China first, but acknowledging that fact should not be an issue for China.

 

[plawolf]

China itself suggested that others could be allowed to make use of the facilities the new islands provides.

However, that was before all the bad blood with the FON patrols, so whether China still feel so generous is very much up for debate.

I think even if China was to offer to open up their bases for use by others, who gets to be on the invite list would very much depend on their attitude and behaviour thus far.

Had Australia asked before mounting FON patrols themselves, China might have indeed indicated that they would be welcome to make use of the facilities. But I think the Australians are being very optimistic if they think China will still be willing to roll out the welcoming matt now that they have effectively taken sides against China.

Although there is still a chance that China will forgive them their transgressions, since it has done in a relatively low-key fashion, and limited in scope. Especially as doing so would neatly undermine a lot of the opposition to China's island building, and also potentially drive a wedge between the Australians and Americans.

The USN would firmly be on the "not welcome" list irrespective of what China agree with the Australians in my view.