Why do you suppose it's predicated upon China to propose anything? I ask because if China continues to grow at around 5 to 6%, then time is on its side and it will eventually become so powerful it could get its way regardless. So, it's in China's best interest to keep tensions tight, but not force the issue until the day it has overwhelming strength to get whatever outcome it desires.
That actually a dangerous mentality to adopt.
This isn't 10 years ago, and China has already amassed considerable military strength.
There are limits to Chinese patience and restraint, and as with any great power, China recognises that there is hardly ever a sure thing in the world, and that sometimes risks are necessary.
As such, it would be dangerous to keep pushing China for short term concessions, expecting China to back off every time because absolutely Chinese national and military power still lags behind the US.
If the US pushes too far, too hard and over-extends itself militarily and/or adopts a position that is hard for even its professional spin doctors and sympathisers in the western press to justify, China may well decide to push back and force the US into either a humiliating climb down or a costly military defeat.
The SCS is actually almost the ideal place from the Chinese prospective to have a throw down.
It's close enough to the Chinese mainland to give China the home field advantage, yet far enough that direct strikes on mainland targets would be seen by all as a massive and disproportionate escalation.
The geography of much of the region makes it very limiting and unfavourable for ocean going, large displacement warships and subs, thus creating easy bottlenecks and perfect ambush zones.
The pro-US vassal states in the region are bluntly put, militarily insignificant, and the US lacks any real military base in the region.
That means that if push came to shove, the US would be forced to engage with just its navy, pretty much as far from home as its possible to get on this planet, with minimal to no useful support from the other branches of the US military, and saddled with allies who's forces represent little more than living decoys for US assets.
This, in my view is why China has taken such a robust position on this issue since the US first started to wade into it.
China raised the stakes when the US first started making noises and used that as cover and pretext to build up its holdings in the SCS into potentially game changing island bases capable of hosting huge numbers of PLA forces, and forming a mutually supporting defensive and offensive lynchpin that even the USN would find extremely hard and costly to try and take.
I think the Chinese leadership was half expecting the US to back off, seeing how much worse those island bases have made their military options and chances in the region.
However, the US seems to have doubled down instead on a lousy hand.
The good news is that I don't think China wants war, because if it did, it would be exceptionally easy to bait the US into one.
However, the US needs to wake up and take stock of just how bad a position they have sleepwalked into and stop pushing and escalating the situation in the SCS real quickly.
This joint patrol with the Phillippines is a really bad idea. What are they going to do if the Chinese send coast guard ships to obstruct only the Philippines part of the patrol?
China might be willing to limit themselves to only verbal protests about US warships sailing in its waters, but anyone with half a brain can see that the only reason the Philippines would get involved in the so called 'FON' patrols is to undermine Chinese territorial claims and control. So it is far less likely to tolerate that.
