China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Yvrch]

Please read the article ABC78 posted.

China's hardening stance in the SCS has little if anything to do with A2AD or AirSea Battle (or whatever its called now) and entirely to do with the real expansionist moves most of the other claimants, especially Vietnam has made in recent years.

Those nations are actually practicing the kind of "changing facts on the ground" and "salami slicing" acts Washington and the western media only ever accuse China of.

By remaining silent and wrongfully making accusations against China (in Beijing's eyes anyways), America has foolishly and needlessly angered China and destroyed pretty much all of its credibility in China's eyes about its ability to act as the independent mediator in disputes.

It is this utter loss of faith in the American led system that is the primary reason China started its land reclamation operations, and I can see China strengthening its determination to create its own rules and norms to replace the American ones in existence.

Ironically, in a weird sort of causational twist, China may well see A2AD as a means to resist what it seems as blatant American meddling and imperialism.

If you bend and break your own rules and claimed principles for petty gain and meaningless political point scoring, could you really blame others for not taking your rules and principles seriously?

If you bend and break your own rules and principles over an issue which you have zero direct interest, is it any wonder others will view your actions not as someone standing up for their principles as claimed, but rather those of someone going out of their way to look for excuses to mess with a certain other country?

I think history will judge this as a textbook example of how a leading power should NOT behave if it wants others to sign up to and invest in the norms and rules it has established, especially over such an inconsequential issue (from America's POV).

The lack of a coherent strategy and cogent long term game plan, other then maybe "screw the Chinese any which way we can" is truly breath taking.

You just exactly proved my point that a certain level of publicity and bum rap should be there to qualify for a historical waters claim. That's exactly one should expect. What else do you expect? Vietnam and Philippines will just hand over to you that 9 or 11 dash lines in a silver platter? US would roll over, play dead and walked away "Oh, all of SCS is ,yes, rightfully China's?"
Each party, including US, would get a bad publicity in the opposing camp/s. Several threads on this board covering SCS just prove it. What matters most is how do you manage it to get what you want without blowing the lid off . This endless bickering would go on until someone stops physically showing up around those waters. For that it would take resources , strategy - linking up several ongoing Chinese strategies to support each other's ends. But 50 years later, history would have abundant evidence that China does have a historical claims to these SCS waters, most of it, and nobody would say no they don't.

 

[Zool]

When I read the Chinese remarks regarding 'Ancestors' etc, my interpretation was one of legacy and historical claim. At least that's where my mind went with it. I didn't even consider a supernatural angle until reading some of the earlier posts here, lol.

 

[Yvrch]

I saw that too. No culture is perfect, so I'd rather take the imperfections of mine over any others' any time, any day, any where. Just my two bits.

 

[Yvrch]

So what has been and what will be the practical purpose of these deployments? Exploration? I assume these deployments are not purely political in nature though if I remember correctly wasn't one of the earlier deployments a tit for tat prompted by Vietnam deploying an oil rig in conjunction with an Indian oil company?

China is showing to the world she has the control over the waters, one of the pre-requisites of historical waters doctrine. Inevitably, Vietnam will contest it by showing up there. This will go on for years, or decades until Vietnam stops showing up, which is what some people here called in legalese " acquiescence". Then China wins.

 

[Blackstone]

I don't think Beijing got the memo on the fact nations of the world don't need its consent to sail in the South China Sea, outside normal territorial waters. That's what all the shouting over "freedom of navigation" is all about. Seriously, unlike the US West Coast, Japan isn't thousands of miles away, and if China doesn't like Japanese naval ships roaming in the SCS, then send Tokyo a message by ringing Japanese coasts with lots of ships, subs, and bombers.

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Japanese sea patrols in the South China Sea are unacceptable, but U.S. patrols there will be tolerated, a prominent Chinese general declared, according to a new

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. The ongoing military dispute between China and Japan that will change the strategic make-up of the region centers on territorial claims over a group of islands that could have huge economic potential.

While Japan was not claiming ownership of the Spratly or the Parcel Islands, also referred to by China as the Nansha and Xinsha islands, respectively, Tokyo is concerned about the Chinese Navy’s increased presence in the region and its growing influence as maritime force. Beijing hopes to exert greater control of the South China Sea by building fake islands that already

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, according to the Pentagon.

"As for the Japanese military presence, it is very difficult for the Chinese people and the Chinese government to accept it," said Major General Zhu Chenghu, a professor of strategic studies at China's National Defense University, according to the NBC report. "The United States used to have military bases in Southeast Asia, like in the Philippines and even in Vietnam, and they have military cooperation with Singapore, so American military presence in the South China Sea is acceptable to China.”

Zhu's claim that the U.S. is welcome to patrol the region may come as a surprise to many, as the general is known for

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towards Washington, and because the Obama administration is continuing its political and military

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Overall ownership of the island group -- especially the Spratly Islands, which is located in an area that is surrounded by Malaysia, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan, who all are making claims for the island group -- would significantly increase China’s strategic territorial waters and economic opportunities. It’s thought that the area has significant oil deposits.

A U.S. State Department official said Friday said that China’s pursuit of the territory in the South China Sea was the equivalent of Russia’s attempts to take Donbas in east Ukraine away from Kiev.

 

[broadsword]

...Seriously, unlike the US West Coast, Japan isn't thousands of miles away, and if China doesn't like Japanese naval ships roaming in the SCS, then send Tokyo a message by ringing Japanese coasts with lots of ships, subs, and bombers.

Looks like that will be how the cookie crumbles unless China has other ideas.

 

[Yvrch]

I don't think Beijing got the memo on the fact nations of the world don't need its consent to sail in the South China Sea, outside normal territorial waters. That's what all the shouting over "freedom of navigation" is all about. Seriously, unlike the US West Coast, Japan isn't t housands of miles away, and if China doesn't like Japanese naval ships roaming in the SCS, then send Tokyo a message by ringing Japanese coasts with lots of ships, subs, and bombers.

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It's no surprise Japanese patrols will go down there in SCS waters, even Aussies would be there if no other Chinese strategies/projects don't rope them in to a neutral corner. No surprise as well for China voicing displeasure over others contesting her possession and control of the waters. That's just the nature of the business. Quickly escalating to deploying China's military assets around Japan is totally uncalled for. The only explosive mix to watch out for here is miscalculation of Philippines' patrol boats with close Japanese maritime support and backups when they have unexpected encounter with Chinese maritime elements.

 

[Jeff Head]

This quote came from a Chinese "General."

Japanese sea patrols in the South China Sea are unacceptable, but U.S. patrols there will be tolerated, a prominent Chinese general declared, according to a new

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.

China has not right under international law to say which nations can or cannot send vessels into the South China Sea.

By setting imagining and declaring, in essence, that they and they alone make the decision on who can and who cannot enter the South China Sea, China is only bolstering the claims that freedom of navigation is in peril there.

I expect that this opinion was floated specifically from someone who does not have the final say in such matters and it will ultimately not be the case, or the opinion that the Chinese base their actions on.

Otherwise, you will probably see a great increase of US, Japanese, Australian...heck ultimately Indian and other nations...proving the point that they can transit, sail, patrol, etc. in those waters under freedom of navigation under international law.

I do not think that is what China wants.

Such a statement as this is going to serve to isolate China at a time when they are actually, with their reclamation efforts, making progress in the SCS and befuddling other nations in terms of the PRC increasing its capability and influence in the area.

 

[Lezt]

When I read the Chinese remarks regarding 'Ancestors' etc, my interpretation was one of legacy and historical claim. At least that's where my mind went with it. I didn't even consider a supernatural angle until reading some of the earlier posts here, lol.

mmm, well, if his terms were 愧对祖宗 or similar, then we have to remember that it is rhetoric / theatrics statement, used in the Chinese imperial courts for the past few thousand years and popularly reproduce in soap operas today with imperial settings. it effectively translates to just, it is a birth right, a statement of resolve and that no compromise will be acceptable. It is not the shame that western media likes to portray's Chinese families in reacting to. e.g. this is more likely a domestic consumption statement.

 

[Engineer]

This quote came from a Chinese "General."

Probably an imaginary one, conjured up by NBC itself.