China's SCS Strategy Thread

[bebops]

Yeah. They keep repeating this "Battle of Yultong" ad nauseam for the longest time already. I thought the Duterte years would have mellowed down the anti-Chinese nationalism already, but it appears to have returned to the same levels during the Aquino III years under Bongbong Marcos.


Agreed. Taiwan has too much to lose to start a shoot out with mainland China, but the Philippines under Bongbong Marcos don't appear to have those same kinds of stakes. Unlike Vietnam and India, the PH have not actually not been punished by mainland China. But in 2013, the PH coastguard did shot and killed a Chinese Taiwanese fisherman.

From what I can observe at this stage, I feel that the PH this time is under direct control by the US. So they won't do anything stupid just yet until the US have setup their strategic pieces in place. The US plans to position US Marines along the islands along the Bashi channel, on top of both Taiwanese and Filipino islands. The war plan is for the USMC to position and fire SAM and AshM missiles along those islands at PLAN assets and then hide in those islands or hop off to another island. Northern PH is their logistical hub for this operation. We can debate the wisdom of such a strategy, but something is definitely cooking up in the PH. The PH intends to become a strategic threat to China with their Brahmos missiles and hosting of US Typhon missiles. So, its increasingly harder to dismiss their anti-China rhetoric as just noise.

given the distance between Philippine and China, anyone should have enough time to intercept those missiles. The question is who has the most long range missile and missile defense.

the best defense is offense. the distance between Philippine and china is not short. I doubt China would have thousands of long range ballistic missiles to launch at them. China needs to be able to launch hundreds at once like Iran did. A portion of them will penetrate the missile defense.

The reason Iran can launch swarms of hundred missiles is because the distance to Israel is short. China can do that to Taiwan but not Philippine.

 

[Sardaukar20]

I have read an article before saying that the waters near China are all filled with American underwater detectors. I wonder if this situation of continuous surveillance has been resolved.

Its best to assume not and err on the safe side. Still, the same waters should also be full of Chinese underwater detectors.

given the distance between Philippine and China, anyone should have enough time to intercept those missiles. The question is who has the most long range missile and missile defense.

the best defense is offense. the distance between Philippine and china is not short. I doubt China would have thousands of long range ballistic missiles to launch at them. China needs to be able to launch hundreds at once like Iran did. A portion of them will penetrate the missile defense.

The reason Iran can launch swarms of hundred missiles is because the distance to Israel is short. China can do that to Taiwan but not Philippine.

Off course, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles launched from the mainland can be detected further away and engaged with SM-3s and Patriots. However unlike Iran, China is not limited to land-based long range missile launchers. They can launch BMs and CMs from aircrafts and ships. If the PLAAF and PLAN can launch missiles at the Bashi Channel from the SCS, they could shorten the engagement windows for these missiles.

 

[CMP]

given the distance between Philippine and China, anyone should have enough time to intercept those missiles. The question is who has the most long range missile and missile defense.

the best defense is offense. the distance between Philippine and china is not short. I doubt China would have thousands of long range ballistic missiles to launch at them. China needs to be able to launch hundreds at once like Iran did. A portion of them will penetrate the missile defense.

The reason Iran can launch swarms of hundred missiles is because the distance to Israel is short. China can do that to Taiwan but not Philippine.

The distance from the border of Iran to the border of Israel is about 1100 km. The distance from the northern tip of the Philippines to the nearest Chinese coast is about 600 km. The US is focused on building up its bases in the northern tip of Philippines (such as in Cagayan) so those are all easily within range of thousands of missiles.

 

[vincent]

Yes. Air superiority is important, however against the US, its gonna be challenging to contest for long term continuous air-superiority. The Batanes islands of the Philippines in the Bashi Channel is one area I suspect where USMC missile sites are gonna operate. It is some distance away from the Chinese coast. This is exactly what the US wants. To sit their Navy at the Western Pacific, some distance from the Chinese coast, back the Taiwanese separatists from behind and let them do most of the dying, while using Filipino islands as launch pads to launch missiles at Chinese ships and cities. They hope to be able the attrit the PLAN at the Bashi Channel before the Navy takes them on in the Western Pacific. That is the plan.

Where will American base their fighters?

 

[AndrewS]

Yes. Air superiority is important, however against the US, its gonna be challenging to contest for long term continuous air-superiority. The Batanes islands of the Philippines in the Bashi Channel is one area I suspect where USMC missile sites are gonna operate. It is some distance away from the Chinese coast. This is exactly what the US wants. To sit their Navy at the Western Pacific, some distance from the Chinese coast, back the Taiwanese separatists from behind and let them do most of the dying, while using Filipino islands as launch pads to launch missiles at Chinese ships and cities. They hope to be able the attrit the PLAN at the Bashi Channel before the Navy takes them on in the Western Pacific. That is the plan.

To counter this USMC "island launchpad" strategy, one thing I think China should do is to traditional area denial. Send barrages of ballistic and cruise missiles to pepper those islands with cluster munitions and small mines. First, that would catch some missile launchers out in the open. Second, those missile systems that were hidden would then have to contend with mines when coming out and moving around the islands to launch. Helicopters would also have a hard time landing on mine-infested islands.

If the PLAN can safely sneak submarines near the islands, they can also intercept US and Filipino Marine vessels moving between those islands too. But make sure to watch out for US subs and anti-submarine assets.

The Bashi Straits are only 500km from China. Manila is 1000km away.

It should be straightforward for the Chinese Air Force to concentrate enough airpower over these locations and obtain air superiority, at least temporarily.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Yes. Air superiority is important, however against the US, its gonna be challenging to contest for long term continuous air-superiority. The Batanes islands of the Philippines in the Bashi Channel is one area I suspect where USMC missile sites are gonna operate. It is some distance away from the Chinese coast. This is exactly what the US wants. To sit their Navy at the Western Pacific, some distance from the Chinese coast, back the Taiwanese separatists from behind and let them do most of the dying, while using Filipino islands as launch pads to launch missiles at Chinese ships and cities. They hope to be able the attrit the PLAN at the Bashi Channel before the Navy takes them on in the Western Pacific. That is the plan.

To counter this USMC "island launchpad" strategy, one thing I think China should do is to traditional area denial. Send barrages of ballistic and cruise missiles to pepper those islands with cluster munitions and small mines. First, that would catch some missile launchers out in the open. Second, those missile systems that were hidden would then have to contend with mines when coming out and moving around the islands to launch. Helicopters would also have a hard time landing on mine-infested islands.

If the PLAN can safely sneak submarines near the islands, they can also intercept US and Filipino Marine vessels moving between those islands too. But make sure to watch out for US subs and anti-submarine assets.

I think the way to prevent US from using Philippines as a launch pad to attack China is to warn Philippines very publicly and clearly that if they allow US to attack China from philippine soil then China will take Philippines over for good. It should be clear to Philippines that the cost of attacking China is the end of Philippines as an independent country.

Without such warnings, there will be no cost of Philippines to help US. China should make the choice as difficult as possible. The warnings should obviously be demonstrated with clear military exercises that shows how China will invade philippines.

 

[vincent]

I think the way to prevent US from using Philippines as a launch pad to attack China is to warn Philippines very publicly and clearly that if they allow US to attack China from philippine soil then China will take Philippines over for good. It should be clear to Philippines that the cost of attacking China is the end of Philippines as an independent country.

Without such warnings, there will be no cost of Philippines to help US. China should make the choice as difficult as possible. The warnings should obviously be demonstrated with clear military exercises that shows how China will invade philippines.

Why would China want to add 115 million poorly educated, impoverished, white-worshiping pinoys to her? The government has already spent tons of money, effort and political capitals to lift 100 Chinese out of poverty. Destroying a country is easy, building one is hard. Just go with the easy route.

 

[4Tran]

Where will American base their fighters?

That's always the operative problem. On paper, the USAF is a massive threat to China, with its thousands of fighter planes and other aircraft. The problem for them is that only a tiny fraction of this force can be deployed and so the actual situation in theater is that the PLAAF has a vast numerical advantage and an even bigger advantage in 5th gen fighters. And any fruitful discussion on this military scenario has to keep this power disparity in mind.

Why would China want to add 115 million poorly educated, impoverished, white-worshiping pinoys to her? The government has already spent tons of money, effort and political capitals to lift 100 Chinese out of poverty. Destroying a country is easy, building one is hard. Just go with the easy route.

The Americans wrecking themselves in Iraq and Afghanistan is what allowed China to catch up so quickly. The Chinese government absolutely knows how much of a mistake this kind of nation building is, so why would they try to repeat the process? There's a reason why China doesn't conduct expeditionary wars and avoids getting into regional conflicts far from its borders.

 

[Sardaukar20]

Where will American base their fighters?

Carriers operating in the Western Pacific. Filipino airbases on Luzon.

The Bashi Straits are only 500km from China. Manila is 1000km away.

It should be straightforward for the Chinese Air Force to concentrate enough airpower over these locations and obtain air superiority, at least temporarily.

It's more efficient for China to area deny those Filipino islands at the Bashi Channel and the Northern tip of Luzon to the enemy. Deposit tons of cluster munitions and mines onto them. This can be done with cruise missiles and glide bombs. That way, they Chinese don't have to maintain continuous air superiority over those areas while the main fight is concentrated over Taiwan.

 

[Sardaukar20]

That's always the operative problem. On paper, the USAF is a massive threat to China, with its thousands of fighter planes and other aircraft. The problem for them is that only a tiny fraction of this force can be deployed and so the actual situation in theater is that the PLAAF has a vast numerical advantage and an even bigger advantage in 5th gen fighters. And any fruitful discussion on this military scenario has to keep this power disparity in mind.

The US airpower in a war over Taiwan is definitely out numbered. Still, they are going to bring at least a hundred aircrafts onto the table. It won't just he USAF. USN and USMC have airpower too. They are betting on quantity vs quality. They assume that their "quality" would give them the edge to inflict unacceptable losses on China. Let them underestimate what China can do to them.

It's extremely important for the Chinese side to never underestimate the enemy. Especially when that enemy is the US military. The Russians have said that NATO equipment can't fight in the muds of Ukraine. The Anti-Zionists had also downplayed Israel's ability to strike deep into Iran. Then the battlefield results disappointed them.

Take the enemy seriously. Prepare well and train well. The Pakistani Airforce took the Indian Airforce seriously and then stunned them on May 7th. Assume that the enemy can fight well and let them make the mistake of underestimating their opponents.