China's Demography and the One Child Policy

Honestly... Lifting the one child policy beyond 2020 might be too late to raise fertility...

I think lifting the one child policy in 2015 would be the best thing to do.

Even now a days couples will unlikely have a lot of children now a days, especially if you count in the cost of living in the cities.

Lastly as many say it will be a great challenge to have graying population. It will surely be a challenge if migration of foreign races will be allowed to fill in the gap of the own native race. But if China will prefer its own native race over foreign migration. I don't think it will remain a challenge. It might be catastrophic beyond 2050.

Except that in Mainland China, the rural population is nearly 50% of the total population. Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are not comparable to China as a country. They are only comparable to the large cities and small wealthy provinces of China.

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This is little comfort because China is rapidly urbanizing. The future of China looks more like Taiwan than the Chinese countryside of the last century.

With families having more than one child, the already extremely competitive education and jobs markets in China would have been even worse. With families having more kinds, the extra financial burden could easily mean many of the best minds behind China's economic miracle never left the field or construction site (upwards mobility is as beneficial to the economy and country as a whole as it is to the individual not only because it lifts the benefits burden and increases the tax base, but also because there are more minds trained to a higher level, and thus the chances of really gifted individuals never getting a chance to meet their potential because of a lack of education and opportunity is massively reduced).

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You must believe there is a finite number of jobs in the economy. But we know empirically this is not true. Do you believe the same number of Chinese workers are employed in 2012 as in 2000? Or 1920? Economies and job markets expand all the time to accommodate population changes. The process is not always smooth, and there are short-term booms and busts in the job market, but over the long-run unemployment rates tend to remain fairly steady in the economy.

I used to believe in the need for population control when I was in high school and college. The prevailing academic view among demographers and environmental scientists, NOT economists for the last 40 years has been on the need to control the population to prevent economic catastrophe, and that was what was taught. A book called "The Ultimate Resource" by economist Julian L. Simon changed my thinking on population. Simon helped me see humans as net producers of resources rather than net consumers. He showed me how children are a long-term investment. In the short run they are a burden on their parents and the government, but in the long-run they pay back their investment and more. Simon said the ultimate resource was the human mind which could innovate and overcome problems. As long as there are plenty of human minds unencumbered by too much government regulation, they will be able to solve any natural resource shortage.

Simon's book is available free online:

Geographer said:

This is little comfort because China is rapidly urbanizing. The future of China looks more like Taiwan than the Chinese countryside of the last century.

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Again, this is what happens when you pronounce judgments on issues you do not understand.

If you ever get the chance, take a train trip from Shanghai to Xinjiang. Then you will have a better sense of the scale involved.



Look at the per capita GDP.

This is the state of Chinese economy in 2010, some 30 years after market reforms. If you still think that the entirety of China is going to look like Taiwan in a few decades, let me know. I have a bridge you might be interested in.

You must believe there is a finite number of jobs in the economy. But we know empirically this is not true. Do you believe the same number of Chinese workers are employed in 2012 as in 2000? Or 1920? Economies and job markets expand all the time to accommodate population changes. The process is not always smooth, and there are short-term booms and busts in the job market, but over the long-run unemployment rates tend to remain fairly steady in the economy.

I used to believe in the need for population control when I was in high school and college. The prevailing academic view among demographers and environmental scientists, NOT economists for the last 40 years has been on the need to control the population to prevent economic catastrophe, and that was what was taught. A book called "The Ultimate Resource" by economist Julian L. Simon changed my thinking on population. Simon helped me see humans as net producers of resources rather than net consumers. He showed me how children are a long-term investment. In the short run they are a burden on their parents and the government, but in the long-run they pay back their investment and more. Simon said the ultimate resource was the human mind which could innovate and overcome problems. As long as there are plenty of human minds unencumbered by too much government regulation, they will be able to solve any natural resource shortage.

Simon's book is available free online:

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If what you say is true, then why isn't a superpower already?

solarz said:

Again, this is what happens when you pronounce judgments on issues you do not understand.

If you ever get the chance, take a train trip from Shanghai to Xinjiang. Then you will have a better sense of the scale involved.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Look at the per capita GDP.

This is the state of Chinese economy in 2010, some 30 years after market reforms. If you still think that the entirety of China is going to look like Taiwan in a few decades, let me know. I have a bridge you might be interested in.




If what you say is true, then why isn't

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a superpower already?

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Am I the only one with not so well-educated relatives in the countryside who don't respect the one-child policy? Some of my dad's far cousins got 5 kids. I think they are for the most part selfish and have no regards for the environment and the overall well-being of the country.

The aging population issue in China is relatively overblown compared with other developed countries such as Japan.

The age 65 and above demographic group increased from 26.5 million in 2006 to 29.47 million in 2011, a 11.2% increase. The Japanese Health Ministry estimates the nation's total population will decrease by 25% from 127.8 million in 2005 to 95.2 million by 2050.[3] Japan's elderly population, aged 65 or older, comprised 20% of the nation's population in June 2006,[4] a percentage that is forecast to increase to 38% by 2055.

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Geographer said:

I hope you're right, but the evidence from Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore says otherwise. The fertility rates in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, and Singapore are the lowest in the world according to the CIA World Factbook at 1.16, 1.09, 0.92, and 0.72. Those are modern Chinese territories that have all but abandoned family values and the desire to have children.

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Without population control, how long will it take China to reach the fertility of those countries? Fertility rates go down as the standard of living rises, as proven in those countries you mentioned but China is starting at a very low base while already bursting at the seams.

cn_habs said:

Am I the only one with relatives in the countryside who don't respect the one-child policy who is mostly reinforced in urban areas? Some of my dad's far cousins got 5 kids. Even some of my friends' parents from Shenzhen are wealthy enough to have a 2nd child. I think they are for the most part selfish and have no regards for the environment and the overall well-being of the country.

The aging population issue in China is relatively overblown compared with other developed countries such as Japan.

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The enforcement of the policy varies wildly from place to place. Some villages are very lax, while other villages are extremely tight. Also, ethnic minorities are not affected by the policy.

Delbert said:

Honestly... Lifting the one child policy beyond 2020 might be too late to raise fertility...

I think lifting the one child policy in 2015 would be the best thing to do.

Even now a days couples will unlikely have a lot of children now a days, especially if you count in the cost of living in the cities.

Lastly as many say it will be a great challenge to have graying population. It will surely be a challenge if migration of foreign races will be allowed to fill in the gap of the own native race. But if China will prefer its own native race over foreign migration. I don't think it will remain a challenge. It might be catastrophic beyond 2050.

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Foreign immigrants will destroy china.
Foreigners into china should be kept to an absolute minimal.
Foreigners don't understand and respect Chinese culture and Chinese values.

Sorry, but no foreigners, thank you very much.

J-XX said:

Foreign immigrants will destroy china.
Foreigners into china should be kept to an absolute minimal.
Foreigners don't understand and respect Chinese culture and Chinese values.

Sorry, but no foreigners, thank you very much.

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Contrary to the situation in most developed countries, a significant amount of Chinese parents would be perfectly willing to have a 2nd child judging from my personal experience.

However, the real estate market would get too hyped up and become a social chaos for real if the majority of Chinese millionaires decide to have a kid all at the same time. Moreover, too many parents saving even more for their 2nd child's housing won't help China's transition from an export-driven economy to a domestic consumption economy.

J-XX said:

Foreign immigrants will destroy china.
Foreigners into china should be kept to an absolute minimal.
Foreigners don't understand and respect Chinese culture and Chinese values.

Sorry, but no foreigners, thank you very much.

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I take it that you have no objection to Western nations doing likewise?

J-XX said:

Foreign immigrants will destroy china.
Foreigners into china should be kept to an absolute minimal.
Foreigners don't understand and respect Chinese culture and Chinese values.

Sorry, but no foreigners, thank you very much.

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If one Child policy continues and there is a gender imbalance.. You can never deny the fact that these local people will marry foreigners... With a shortage on labor force in the future, you cannot stop the need to fill in job vacancies with foreigners.

So that is what I am saying... One child policy must be lifted soon. Not later...