China's Defense/Military Breaking News Thread

[Ultra]

No they can't, China's A2/AD has already proven that. And NO the US will not be fighting China in a war anytime soon even for Taiwan. The American public is already sick of war and the amount of damaged and costs it did to the economy and socially to those families with veterans who suffers from PTSD, lost limbs, and finding jobs for them.

US is well aware of China's A2/AD strategy as pentagon's whitepaper in the past few years are all about China's A2/AD. Not to mention Russian had been playing the A2/AD game against US decades ago during cold war so US has plenty of practice on anti-A2/AD strategy. One of the thing China relies on (or the ONLY thing China relies on) is the ASBM against US's carrier fleet - but the ASBM is a BM after all so it can be shoot down during the boost phase - which is the reason US is strengthening its anti-ballistic missile defense around the pacific region - putting THAAD in Guam, and in talk with South Korea to put THAAD there too. The US also sold the PAVE PAWS to Taiwan (the ONLY country besides UK they sold it to) which gives US unparallel advantage in intercepting China's ASBM. If push comes to shove, I think US will sell THAAD or Aegis GMD to Taiwan (combine with the PAVE PAWS) which will effectively block China's ASBMs and stops China's A2/AD strategy completely.

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[delft]

These are just small "skirmishes", not war. They amounts to nothing more than a few tactical strikes at foreign countries which american publics don't really care about as there is almost no casualty and zero threat to the mainland US. War with China will be different - it could escalate into a few American cities raze to the ground (which is something the US long term strategists can accept if they win). War with China will require more than a few cruise missiles or airstrikes. It will require almost all of the PACOM (60% of US's forces) and more, something the american president cannot ignore without getting the consent from his constituents.

Those " small skirmishes" costs the lives of thousands of people. I see that the US administration doesn't think it necessary to ask permission to do so but the victims, their families and others who think they might become victims are thinking and acting differently. That is no doubt one of the factors behind the demise of the US sponsored government in Yemen.

China to declare Taiwan's ports and airport closed? How do you figure that will work? Taiwanese government DOES NOT take order from PRC you know, and almost all of the countries in the world knows Taiwan is already a country itself which means they will simply ignore China's declaration and continue to trade with Taiwan using its ports and airports. Let's not forget US Japan and the western alliance will get involved and will assure all the countries that Chinese declaration has no effect - just like when China declare its own ADIZ Japan and US and almost everyone did not recognize it. And don't forget that US/Japan and EU depends on Taiwan for many of its high tech semiconductor products so anything that will stop the trade will be seen as a threat to them.

As for the "revoking the registration of Taiwan's civil aircraft" - again, Taiwan is already a world recognized entity (country) itself and every country in the world knows PRC has no authority over Taiwan on this - and I wonder just how many countries in the world will listen to China to arrest citizens of another country on this - except maybe North Korea or Pakistan (and I have doubt that Pakistan will follow such order from China). China has almost zero friend except NK who is willing to do something like this and anger the US and western alliances.

As for South Korea - I think your scenerio is wrong too - South Korea couldn't be happier if China goes into war with Japan or US - there is a huge anti-chinese undercurrent in korean society - even in the north (I read somewhere that Kim Il Sung dislike the Chinese - as seen in his policy that he would rather cozy up to the Russian than Chinese). If war does break out South Korea will probably declare they will sit this one out. They will be happy if China and Japan destroy each other - two of their biggest enemies since ancient time (and this is how they were taught in school - ask any korean children who invaded Korea historically they will say China and Japan).

Taiwan is recognized by two dozen or so small countries with a total population equal to that of a large city. The other don't and won't recognize a Taiwanese declaration of independence. Taiwan registration is accepted as long as China doesn't object and China will not object wantonly. For most countries, and especially for South Korea, the dislocation a major war would cause would be extremely damaging even if the World was not poisoned with radio-activity. To prevent war these countries will happily comply with China's requests just as The Netherlands did thirty years ago.

Closing ports and airports will mean that ships and aircraft using them will not be insured. Nearly all are leased or bought with a mortgage ( bottomry for ships ) so the ship owner ( what a strange name for a company that doesn't actually own the ship ) or aircraft company will be prevented by these contracts to use such ports and airports.

 

[delft]

Not sure about the dutch as that was way before my time - but as I see it it - it is just commerce - China offered more to trade with Dutch than Taiwan could offer. The Dutch accepted it.
What you proposed before its ridicules though - TO ARREST THE CITIZEN OF TAIWAN BY THE ORDER OF CHINA. Most countries in the world would not do so without actual actionable criminal offence when they are part of the INTERPOL.

I'm talking about arresting ships, not people.
Btw the economy of Taiwan is tiny compared to that of China.

As for the ports and airports - again, that depends on how much China is willing to pay / trade for other countries to stop trading with Taiwan. I am willing to bet not that many - as China has already tried to isolate Taiwan for the past 30 years and so far they still can't isolate Taiwan economically. America and Japan would definitely not want to see Taiwan to fail economically since it is their best interest to keep Taiwan in their corner as an "unsunkable aircraft carrier just off the coast of China" because Taiwan forms the natural part of 1st island chain which is critical to Japan and America's pacific defense to box-in (cage) China.

The use of Taiwan by Japan or US as an unsinkable aircraft carrier will be considered an invasion of China and an act of war and not defense.

 

[tidalwave]

You tell me why their media are talking about all those "war with China". I think they are subliminally building up a case and ease the american public in to accepting it.

Like I said before - the US long term strategists (or anyone else) can see that 30 years on China very much will become a super power technologically and militarily - it is a scenerio they don't want it to happen - so the most logical way to prevent China to challenge its supremacy is to act early - to stop your opponent grow stronger to fight you in a war you cannot win.

Not really! What do those average journalists and media know about the military planning and war? All they do is spy them up. The messages are for China. Essentially waging out loud threat that if China doesn't back down... Whether China would get scared and comply is another story.

USN, when they need to make a point they send out carrier or do exercises but they can't
explicitly issue threat and it's up the media to do that.

The most single important word in US policy "Deterrence" Affecting others behavior without real actions. This constant mentioning of war by US media is a psychological warfare to make China back down.

US military planners doesn't know exactly how to engage China military. Do they really want to destroy China at a tremendous cost? China is huge market provides a lot of opportunities.
Every single western company salivating over the marketshare there. So, does US really want to kill the golden goose? That's against its own economic interests,
They don't know how deep to engage China in war confrontation and at how level and what should be exit strategy when the war is over.

All the articles I read is US planners want to keep China economic intact such that it can still provide continuous opportunities for US firms and businesses, yet it want somehow eliminate CHina military threat. Easier said than done. I don't think they figure it out how to achieve that.

Your statement of US sending China back 100 yrs back is absolute false. It doesn't want that. It's not good for US interests. I mean what can vietnam, philippines, taiwan, korea Japan offer US economically? All them are export driven. China is the exception, it has the greatest potential in Asia to be a consuming driving market which what US ultimately wants.

 

[Equation]

US is well aware of China's A2/AD strategy as pentagon's whitepaper in the past few years are all about China's A2/AD. Not to mention Russian had been playing the A2/AD game against US decades ago during cold war so US has plenty of practice on anti-A2/AD strategy. One of the thing China relies on (or the ONLY thing China relies on) is the ASBM against US's carrier fleet - but the ASBM is a BM after all so it can be shoot down during the boost phase - which is the reason US is strengthening its anti-ballistic missile defense around the pacific region - putting THAAD in Guam, and in talk with South Korea to put THAAD there too. The US also sold the PAVE PAWS to Taiwan (the ONLY country besides UK they sold it to) which gives US unparallel advantage in intercepting China's ASBM. If push comes to shove, I think US will sell THAAD or Aegis GMD to Taiwan (combine with the PAVE PAWS) which will effectively block China's ASBMs and stops China's A2/AD strategy completely.

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An inundated offense (ASBM) beats an inundated defense (THAAD) every time. Remember China just needs to do is "mission killed" on those carrier and the CV battle group will turn around, not taking any more chances.

 

[balance]

Okay, I can see some important facts that are happening or in progress:
1. US is encircling China with radar and BMD systems. South Korea, Japan, Philippines, and Singapore, plus India.
2. Taiwan election in 2016 will most likely be won by pro-independent DPP.
3. US and Japan want to stop China before it becomes too big to handle.

I am most worried about no 2. My gut feeling tells me that Taiwan under DPP will declare formal independence.
If China does nothing, it will lose face and have increasing risk of instability (Tibet)
If China does something, it will suffer economically as it will fall into US and Japan trap.
And, supporting Taiwan formal independence is connected with no 1 (China encirclement).

I believe Chinese military and political thinkers have this in mind. To me, the outlook seems bleak for China, but not totally hopeless.
They are trying to look west, and build a Westbound Silk Road. In other words, they will try to stick to economic development as an effective counter-punch.

If I were Xi Jinping, this is what I will do when Taiwan formally declares independence in 2016:
I will impose some economic sanctions
I will announce that all options are on the table
I will remind Taiwan that the military attack can occur at anytime, and the threat will never be removed anytime.

US will fortify Taiwan against China with military build-up
China must surpass that build-up with its own military build-up.

I would suffer loss of face for a while in exchange for a long-term and permanent advantage in the world's stage.
This will force the US and Japan to take the initiative to start the war.

If China wants to learn from Russia in Ukraine case, it can arm the pro-unification faction to stir trouble and start uprising.
If China doesn't do this, then US and Japan might use DPP protestors to do that.
It comes out the same for China: Taiwan will declare independence.

Building land on 7 islands in South China Sea is a brilliant preparation in the light of what's coming. This will render complete encirclement of China next to impossible.

This area will most likely be the flashpoint of geopolitical major conflict of 2016.

Just my 2c

 

[tphuang]

the vast majority of Taiwanese (including DPP supporters) favour status quo. There is no indication that will change. The military balance is more in favour of PRC than ever. US gov't also opposes change to status quo. You can stop your war mongering views.

 

[balance]

the vast majority of Taiwanese (including DPP supporters) favour status quo. There is no indication that will change. The military balance is more in favour of PRC than ever. US gov't also opposes change to status quo. You can stop your war mongering views.

Well, it's not simply my personal views. There are reasonable articles out there about this possibility.

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[PanAsian]

I find the common direction of two popular topics of discussion absurd and glossed over respectively so I'm going to contribute my two cents here.

1) PRC naval expeditionary forces operating anywhere other than within or around the first island chain in a total war scenario - absurd. The PLAN will find itself consumed with securing this area to defend against attacks on the homeland and any expeditionary forces outside of this area would quickly find itself at least out of friendly ports to call, if it manages to survive that long. China fanboy wet dreams and China threat warmongering often ironically converge in misdirecting discussions on this topic.

2) PRC's fragile position and weak capabilities in propaganda, hearts-and-minds, and psy-ops - glossed over. Social discontent, already politically exploited by those hostile to PRC authorities, is alive and well in significant segments of the population in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Tibet/Xinjiang. The PRC clearly lacks nuanced impactful quick counters to increasingly knee jerk and blanket hostility, often responding with poorly packaged long term tactics and clumsy communications that undermine itself. Crude China fanboy overreactions and persistent China hater/blamer flame baiting constitute a microcosm of the topic itself and pre-empts meaningful discussion.

Both of these topics are major considerations in Chinese defense and military affairs but I have so far found quality discussions on them lacking, including on this forum, and that's a shame.

 

[tphuang]

Well, it's not simply my personal views. There are reasonable articles out there about this possibility.

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well, that seems to be a minority view and I don't want this to turn into another invasion thread, so stop it right here until there is something concrete on this.