Re: Chinese Military News Thread
I dont know whether this is the correct thread to place this post, but i was just wondering whether events over the past year lead by the U.S, by this i mean the containment of China policy, will have short circuited Chinas string of pearls policy.
The following article makes me think so, whats yours?
Commentary: China's strategic post in the Persian Gulf
TORONTO, Sep. 26
HARI SUD
Column: Abroad View
If the flow of Middle East oil to China is squeezed, the Chinese economy will come to a grinding halt. Today China imports 32 percent of its oil needs. This need is expected to double by 2012. Of this oil, 58 percent comes from the Middle East -- about 2 million barrels a day. It is expected that by 2012 almost 70 percent of all oil imports -- about 4 million barrels a day -- will come from the Middle East.
Hence it is not difficult to understand why China decided to build a naval base in Gwadar in Bulochistan, a Pakistani province, not far from the Straits of Hormuz.
It took five years and US$300 million to complete the base. To the Pakistani navy, its military value is great. It gives them a second home. Pakistan has always run the risk of a naval blockade at its single seaport of Karachi.
To the Chinese, Gwadar is a vantage point from which to monitor naval activity in the Persian Gulf, a military port of call, a second home for China's naval fleet patrolling the Indian Ocean and, if need be, a forward base for any confrontation with Indian or U.S. naval fleets.
Pakistan has been publicizing the commercial value of this port, but considering the hinterland that surrounds it, with scanty communications and sparsely populated areas, the commercial value is dubious. Also, Bulochistan province is not fully integrated into Pakistan politically or economically. An insurgency against Pakistani rule has been ongoing for the last 40 years. This will prevent any meaningful use of this port.
Consider the other side of the equation: About 13 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Straits of Hormuz. Gwadar, not far from the Straits, could become a major choke point during any confrontation between big powers of the world. A well-equipped Chinese fleet anchored at Gwadar could temporarily threaten this supply and bring the world to its knees.
Then the question is, why did the United States let China get away with this coup d'etat?
It happened because the United States was too pre-occupied in Iraq. In 2002, when the Gwadar naval base and port construction began, it was Iraq that was on the mind of the United States. Also, very cleverly, the Pakistanis had aligned themselves with the U.S. War on Terror. Hence the United States was ready to okay anything the Pakistanis wanted as long as they stayed on the U.S. side. China made it appear that the naval base was a Pakistani initiative. As a matter of fact it was all along a Chinese initiative.
Now this base is fully operational. Its deep-water port is suitable for berthing large naval vessels. In times of conflict, Pakistan's naval fleet can hide there for sneak attacks on Indian shipping vessels. Worse, China can use this base to "mine" the mouth of the Persian Gulf and render it unserviceable for friend or foe.
No wonder the United States has realized that a strategic mistake has been made. Now it is trying to rectify it by encouraging India to build a still mightier navy than it currently has planned. Also, it wants India to integrate operations with the Australian, Japanese, Singaporean and U.S. navies. The recently held naval drill in the Bay of Bengal was to gauge each other's naval capabilities. No wonder Indian naval commentators have called this exercise a huge opportunity for the Indian Navy.
There are a few points we have to remember. China has two retired aircraft carriers from the former Soviet Union, seven nuclear submarines of questionable design and three dozen diesel-powered submarines. Additional aircraft carriers and submarines are under construction. These can be deployed in strength in the Indian Ocean or the Arabian Sea to protect China's interests. What the Chinese lack is long-range maritime surveillance capability, to ensure greater success far from their home ports. Additionally, if the five nations of the recently held Malabar naval exercise were to form a joint front, they could confront the Chinese in the Indian Ocean and then threaten the depleted Chinese fleet left behind for China's homeland defense.
Hence, the advantage China gained in building the Gwadar port and its quiet diplomacy to reach the oil-rich Persian Gulf can be easily neutralized. A joint defensive naval posture, as is envisaged, will do the job. Not only that, a much mightier Indian naval fleet will preempt any Chinese naval plans in the Indian Ocean.
In India, plans are already under way to do just that. A mighty aircraft carrier from the former Soviet Union, the Gorshkov, will join the Indian navy in the next two years. An indigenously built aircraft carrier is already under construction to join the Indian Navy in about four years. Five nuclear-powered submarines, two on lease from Russia and the remainder indigenously built, will join the navy in 10 years.
Six diesel-powered stealth Scorpene submarines from France are on order. An additional Amur class submarine from Russia will give the navy a massive punch. These will be added to 10 Kilo-class Russian submarines already in service. Other submarines in service are two Foxtrots and four German HDWs.
Hence no Chinese effort to act smart in the Indian Ocean or Arabian Sea will be successful. The recent technology validation test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile by India will ultimately become the strategic punch of the Indian nuclear-powered submarine. The latter's nuclear reactor is ready for mating with the submarine hull in the next two years. Then India will have its own naval nuclear arm.
To act aggressively, if need be, a troop ship carrier recently acquired by India from the United States could land 900 battle-ready troops on any shore in the Indian Ocean littoral states. This could neutralize any coup by communist or other forces in the region.
To match this aggressive posture, long-range and short-range surveillance capability is being enhanced. The Russians are upgrading the existing Indian fleet with new radar and new punch. The United States has offered its newest surveillance aircraft.
All these acquisitions in the next 10 years will make the Indian Navy a formidable force. This navy has one task only -- to stay in the Indian Ocean and maintain order from Suez to Singapore. It is a totally different posture than the Chinese navy, which plans to undertake aggressive patrolling of the Indian Ocean far from home, without shore-based surveillance and fighter and bomber support.
How will the Chinese tangle with the Indians far away from their home ports?
Chins has a much larger fleet of submarines and battleships. Their two aircraft carriers, acquired from Russia, are for show and training only. More formidable ones are under construction and will join the navy in about six years. But away from their home ports in high seas and under constant surveillance these will be sitting ducks. They will never risk action against India or the combined capabilities of five nations.
Hence Gwadar may turn out to be only a showcase naval base for the Chinese and Pakistani navies. From time to time it may present strategic headaches for the Indian Ocean powers, but in the overall scheme of things, China will be the big loser if it ever tries to use this base to conduct hostile actions.
The Pakistani Navy may be the big beneficiary of Gwadar's deep-water ports, but since its policies are all India-centric, a naval base far from the Indian coast has less value in the face of the much bigger Indian Navy, except to hide in and threaten Indian commercial shipping.
Alternatively, if the Indian Ocean powers decide to squeeze the oil flow to China through the Indian Ocean, they can do so and China will be able to do nothing about it. China will not pick a naval fight with the combined might of the Indian Ocean naval fleets.
In conclusion, the Chinese naval challenge in the Indian Ocean is minor. India must simply continue with its five-nation naval integration policy.
--
(Hari Sud is a retired vice president of C-I-L Inc., a former investment strategies analyst and international relations manager. A graduate of Punjab University and the University of Missouri, he has lived in Canada for the past 34 years. ©Copyright Hari Sud.)