china/taiwan news

Temstar · Oct 11, 2020

Max Demian said:
I admit, I initially thought most of the pro-Chinese posters live in China. Then again, I mostly peruse technical boards and don't get to learn where a person is from or what school they went to. But we can always start from somewhere. So you had primary, secondary and tertiary education in a Western country?

I've personally met and discussed this topic with about a dozen Chinese people who live in the West and they all have a very similar if not identical position on Taiwan. All of them got a PhD and some masters too in western countries, but the rest of their education was in China. I also see exact same responses from hundreds of Chinese on Quora. Having grown up in an environment where a hundred people have a hundred opinions on any single matter, leads me to conclude that indoctrination must be at play here. A PhD or a bachelors/masters in another culture pales in effect on the educational and cultural imprinting in the formative years of a person's life in his home country.

I don't know. It opens fine on my browser when I use the link. Fast forward to 1h10m20s.

If you want a data point I had primary, secondary and tertiary education all in a western country and I fully support reunification of Taiwan. Since 2008 with the drama about the Beijing Olympic torch relay I've come to realise that a western world have a strong bias against China. This year with all the reporting around COVID-19 have caused me to harden my position particularly so.

In 2008 I wasn't yet motivated enough to travel across the country to protect the torch relay, but if in 2022 the Olympic flame comes again I will not hesitate. I've already purchased two PRC flags recently to prepare.

Generally, Chinese nationals who left China to live in the west becomes intensely patriotic after a few years after witnessing all the double standards first hand. I've spoken to numerous friends from Uni who were Chinese international students who went to the torch relay protection thing in 2008 and they all tell me that was the one time that they sang March of the Volunteers with feeling.

BrightFuture · Oct 11, 2020

Max Demian said:
I admit, I initially thought most of the pro-Chinese posters live in China. Then again, I mostly peruse technical boards and don't get to learn where a person is from or what school they went to. But we can always start from somewhere. So you had primary, secondary and tertiary education in a Western country?

I've personally met and discussed this topic with about a dozen Chinese people who live in the West and they all have a very similar if not identical position on Taiwan. All of them got a PhD and some masters too in western countries, but the rest of their education was in China. I also see exact same responses from hundreds of Chinese on Quora. Having grown up in an environment where a hundred people have a hundred opinions on any single matter, leads me to conclude that indoctrination must be at play here. A PhD or a bachelors/masters in another culture pales in effect on the educational and cultural imprinting in the formative years of a person's life in his home country.

I don't know. It opens fine on my browser when I use the link. Fast forward to 1h10m20s.

And I know Chinese that work in the UN, have much more preparation than a few masters or PhDs, and think Taiwan is a Chinese province that should be unified. Your anecdotal evidence means shit and isn't representative of anything. Thousands of Chinese that are well educated and have studied in the West think Taiwan is a Chinese province that should be reunited, most Chinese people think like this – in fact. If you want to keep deluding yourself and trying to use fallacies of authority like: "I know someone with a PhD and he thinks this, so he must be right because he has a PhD" then go ahead, keep living in your fantasy.

By the way, I was born and raised in the West and I'm not even ethnically Chinese. Surprised? I live in China, know about the bullshit of the West, and I'm tired of it.

Temstar · Oct 11, 2020

tamsen_ikard said:
I think instead of politics, our discussion should focus on war scenarios. What is the likely war scenario and who would win and what cost?

I have had frequent battles in reddit r/taiwan recently about the possible war and who can win.

Lets's suppose Taiwan declares independence or US decides to recognize Taiwan as independent and China decides to fight. What could be the likely scenario?

Here are a few scenarios that I can think of:

1. China wants to force Taiwan to surrender but it doesn't want to do a full invasion. So, in order to reduce casualties it decides to nuke one of Taiwan's cities. I know one might bring the morality argument. But if Taiwan really goes for a "porcupine" strategy. Then why should China spend all this blood to take Taiwan when it can just nuke one of its cities and force them to surrender? It seems to be the least costly strategy both for China and for Taiwan.

A quick surrender of Taiwan is the best outcome for Taiwanese living in that island. So, I do think China might pursue this strategy if two conditions are fulfilled: the first condition is that Taiwan has alianted the mainland public so much that they no longer care about what happens to Taiwanese. They think Taiwanese are traitors that must destroyed and taught a lesson. The second condition is that China sees Taiwan takeover to be too costly in terms of manpower and damage to mainland cities.

2. China does not invade or nuke Taiwan but decides to Bomb Taiwan into submission using conventional bombs. It quickly achieves air superiority and then proceeds to create a no fly zone similar to what US did in Iraq. Then it spends the next 3-4 years to constantly monitor and bomb Taiwan from the air to soften it up. It then finally moves towards invasion with air borne troops and naval invasion.

How likely is such a scenario where China decides to bomb and blockade Taiwan to soften it up?

Both scenarios assume that US will not fight China. But lets assume US will fight China. How much resources will US spend to fight China in a Taiwan scenario and can China win in 2020-21 level of strength?

How likely is Japan's support in such a war. If Japan allows US to use its air bases to attack China for example then China will obviously not only Bomb those air bases in Japan. But could decide to punish Japan further to force them not to allow any kind of US action from Japanese soil against China. Based on my understanding of Japan. it will not want involve in this war and US will be on its own and must rely on its naval forces to fight China. Philippines, Korea and Vietnam will also stay out.

Let's look at how much strength China currently has that is relevant against a US naval force:

1200+ 4th gen Planes, 200+ Jh-7 for naval and ground strikes, 600 J-7 and J-8 which can be used for point interception roles.

50 destroyers of which 8 is type-055, 49 frigates of which 30 is type 054, 71 corvettes, 83 missiles boats, 2 carriers with 24 jets each.

12 SSN, 50 SSK submarines.

I know some of these forces are not yet fully operational but let's assume that they are for simplicity.

Ground based carrier killer missiles and anti-ship cruise missiles in vast numbers that we don't know how many there are.

US capabilities are:

1600 4th gen+ planes in the air force including 180 F-22 and around 200 F-35. But must bring these forces in an air base in Japan so likely not useful at all

600 4th gen planes on the navy used for carriers. Mostly F/A 18 hornets and super hornets. F-35 maybe in small numbers.

11 carriers, 10 LHD, 67 Bruke class destroyer, 22 cruisers, 55 SSN submarines.

Of course the quality of some US platforms could be higher than China. But I am assuming people will know the capabilities of such platforms.

I am not counting ground forces for US because I don't think they are a factor in the US-China battle for Taiwan. I think its mainly a Air-naval battle for Air superiority. Navy is mainly a platform to fight air attack- air defense battle. Submarines are a support force for sinking ships.

I can envision two scenarios about how much forces and how much cost US is willing to take:

Scenario 1: Arrogant US. This is the scenario where US is arrogant that Chinese forces are weak. And there is not much willingness in US public to fight a costly battle for Taiwan. US will fight China but does not want to give up on its global empire.

Suppose they send 3 carrier battle groups and associated ships to fight China. They assume China will intimidated by just the thought of fighting US. But if not then 3 battle groups will be sufficient to achieve air superiority over Taiwan strait and thus defeating China.

Scenario 2: China threat crazy US. In this scenario, US is totally paranoid about China. It cares about nothing but China. Anything that can cause a gain for China will resisted by US with force. It has abandoned its empire in Europe and Middle east. And decides to use its entire navy on China.

It will send its entire fleet of carriers. Due to maintenance, it can bring about 8 according to navy scheduling. So, 8 carrier battle groups and associated destroyers and cruisers and SSN.

Can China win? How many carriers can China sink with its Carrier killer and anti-Ship missiles? Can China simultaneously battle to invade Taiwan as well?

Here is what I think: I think US underestimates China heavily and especially discounts China's organizational capabilities and tactical accumen. My analysis is that China is invincible in the first island Chain based on the capabilties it has right now. China can use its entire air force and ground based missiles in this fight. China's 600 Flankers give them very long range capability. US carriers can be attacked by China from about 1000 KM easily with H-6K bombers with missiles and 600 Flankers and 200 Jh-7 can also carry anti-ship missiles. China's destroyers will also fire their own anti-ship missiles in a massive barrage.

Thus China will be able to track those carriers using its satellite, drones, recon planes and subs. Once they get nearby, they will be destroyed with saturated anti-Ship missiles.

What are your thoughts about these scenarios.

I'm quite certain China will not use nukes against Taiwan. Firstly that requires a renouncement of no first use policy which doesn't seem likely.

In general China is highly unlikely to use any strategy that involves indiscriminate attack against civilian. Even back during the civil war on the mainland the PLA was famous for treating the average people better than ROC forces. This caused the people to support the CPC and was the basis for the eventual civil war victory. The same would happen again this time.

I think a first wave attack will involve a lot of long range rocket artillery. PLA is world leading in this field because this weapon is uniquely suitable against Taiwan. They are highly accurate these days and the longer ranged ones can cover the whole island. They are also cheap and will cause a dilemma for the defenders: use up your missile interceptors and therefore engage in a losing trade, or let them through and watch them degrade your fixed radar and airfields and so on. Then you will see a wave of SRBMs and cruise missiles against harder targets.

After a few waves of such attacks the PLAAF will show up to mop up any fighters that managed to get into the air, plus bomb truck like J-16 will start patrolling the island and drop payloads on any troop concentration that shows up.

Then PLAN will start to get moving with the landing itself. Hopefully by this stage PLAAF would have sunk most opposing vessels and rooted out the majority of shore based harpoon launchers. Once the ground forces land on Taiwan it's pretty much all over. I expect at this stage ROC forces will start to lay down their arm en masse and PLAGF only needs to mop up.

The idea is to get all this done very quickly, maybe in under a week or maybe even 3 days, before the US can mount a response. In the event of US getting involved directly DF-21D and DF-26B will be launched against carrier battle groups that make any aggressive moves. And if land based fighters/bomber attack from Japan or Guam they would similarly be attacked with DF-26. I understand RAND Corporation published a paper saying a dozen balistic missile attack against an air base like Guam can put it out of action for quite a while and so the plan is in the even of war USAF is to split up into potentially 100 small units to be dispersed across airfields throughout the western pacific. I don't believe this strategy is yet ready but even so that's just asking for China to produce more DF-26 and get H-20 ready, both of which I'm sure are well under way.

SPOOPYSKELETON · Oct 11, 2020

Max Demian said:
I admit, I initially thought most of the pro-Chinese posters live in China. Then again, I mostly peruse technical boards and don't get to learn where a person is from or what school they went to. But we can always start from somewhere. So you had primary, secondary and tertiary education in a Western country?

I've personally met and discussed this topic with about a dozen Chinese people who live in the West and they all have a very similar if not identical position on Taiwan. All of them got a PhD and some masters too in western countries, but the rest of their education was in China. I also see exact same responses from hundreds of Chinese on Quora. Having grown up in an environment where a hundred people have a hundred opinions on any single matter, leads me to conclude that indoctrination must be at play here. A PhD or a bachelors/masters in another culture pales in effect on the educational and cultural imprinting in the formative years of a person's life in his home country.

I don't know. It opens fine on my browser when I use the link. Fast forward to 1h10m20s.

Do 100 Americans have 100 different opinions on the Holocaust, or that America was the good guy in WW2? Unification with Taiwan is a fundamental belief of Chinese society, just like how "Fascism is bad" is a fundamental belief in America.

tamsen_ikard · Oct 11, 2020

Temstar said:
I'm quite certain China will not use nukes against Taiwan. Firstly that requires a renouncement of no first use policy which doesn't seem likely.

In general China is highly unlikely to use any strategy that involves indiscriminate attack against civilian. Even back during the civil war on the mainland the PLA was famous for treating the average people better than ROC forces. This caused the people to support the CPC and was the basis for the eventual civil war victory. The same would happen again this time.

I think a first wave attack will involve a lot of long range rocket artillery. PLA is world leading in this field because this weapon is uniquely suitable against Taiwan. They are highly accurate these days and the longer ranged ones can cover the whole island. They are also cheap and will cause a dilemma for the defenders: use up your missile interceptors and therefore engage in a losing trade, or let them through and watch them degrade your fixed radar and airfields and so on. Then you will see a wave of SRBMs and cruise missiles against harder targets.

After a few waves of such attacks the PLAAF will show up to mop up any fighters that managed to get into the air, plus bomb truck like J-16 will start patrolling the island and drop payloads on any troop concentration that shows up.

Then PLAN will start to get moving with the landing itself. Hopefully by this stage PLAAF would have sunk most opposing vessels and rooted out the majority of shore based harpoon launchers. Once the ground forces land on Taiwan it's pretty much all over. I expect at this stage ROC forces will start to lay down their arm en masse and PLAGF only needs to mop up.

The idea is to get all this done very quickly, maybe in under a week or maybe even 3 days, before the US can mount a response. In the event of US getting involved directly DF-21D and DF-26B will be launched against carrier battle groups that make any aggressive moves. And if land based fighters/bomber attack from Japan or Guam they would similarly be attacked with DF-26. I understand RAND Corporation published a paper saying a dozen balistic missile attack against an air base like Guam can put it out of action for quite a while and so the plan is in the even of war USAF is to split up into potentially 100 small units to be dispersed across airfields throughout the western pacific. I don't believe this strategy is yet ready but even so that's just asking for China to produce more DF-26 and get H-20 ready, both of which I'm sure are well under way.

I don't think China can destroy Taiwanese air defenses in a week. Taiwan has a lot of mountains and jungles in the central part of the island. They also have hardened Plane shelters and hidden missile sites. China can destroy most of air forces and defenses in a week. But some part will remain and they might come out once in a while in hiding.

I also don't think China will go for an amphibious invasion. Because it is much more difficult when faced with Taiwanese hidden anti-Ship missiles. It might be easier to do a air Bourne invasion where they takeover an air port with Special forces and air borne troops. Then use that air field to bring in more troops and supplies. And finally use that troop to take over a Port. No need to do beach landings.

But Taiwan will be able to muster a reserve force of about 1 million soldiers. So, it might be easier to just bomb taiwan from the air for atleast few months to destroy all major military sites possible and then go for a ground assault.

Max Demian · Oct 11, 2020

manqiangrexue said:
It truly takes someone with a lack of critical thinking to read the responses here and think that most of these people are in China. Read the English; does it look like the unedited draft of what a person who took ESL would write?

Sorry to say this, but some of their English is really shit, particularly in the Navy boards which I mainly peruse.

And you have not run it through your mind that perhaps it is because these people all have the natural human desire to see their own country succeed? If most of the people you meet all want wealth and respect, would you conclude that they were all indoctrinated and brainwashed as poor kids, or would you assume that that is because it is natural to want those things? Same with nationalism/patriotism. A person who is from Country A is naturally likely to support Country A because that is where is self-identity lies; it's not that complicated a concept.

Nationalism/patriotism is a consequence of indoctrination, that exploits human innate disposition towards group bonding and we-group demarcation. Yes, I am indoctrinated too. We all are. But at least I can step out of the enchantment. The idea that Taiwan's reunification with the mainland is key to a Chinese person's wealth and respect is not innate or natural. It is indoctrinated. That's how masses are controlled. That's how Japanese soldiers died for an emperor they never saw nor heard. Wake up.

My browser works fine; it's the content that is garbage and leads you to be incapable of independent thought when it comes to China.

What made you conclude that the content is garbage? Is that scene with the little children chanting: "We are small militia men, fighting U.S. imperialism. Uncle we must grow up quick and go to liberate Taiwan.", fabricated? Why do so many of you sound like those little children?

Hadoren · Oct 11, 2020

Okay, so there's a lot of nationalism in this thread which is leading to wishful thinking.

30,000 American troops are in Okinawa. Amphibious ready group Task Force 76 is in Okinawa. It takes one day to sail from Okinawa to Taiwan.

Thus, America can land troops onto Taiwan in one day. Here's a timeline:

In the morning, the troops in Okinawa get on Task Force 76 (something they've trained for their entire career).
In the evening, Task Force 76 is in Taiwan.

By the way, attacking Okinawa also brings Japan into the war.

Sleepyjam · Oct 11, 2020

Max Demian said:
Sorry to say this, but some of their English is really shit, particularly in the Navy boards which I mainly peruse.

I have seen much worse English on western forums. I guess the education system in the west must be failing hard.

Max Demian said:
Nationalism/patriotism is a consequence of indoctrination, that exploits human innate disposition towards group bonding and we-group demarcation. Yes, I am indoctrinated too. We all are. But at least I can step out of the enchantment. The idea that Taiwan's reunification with the mainland is key to a Chinese person's wealth and respect is not innate or natural. It is indoctrinated. That's how masses are controlled. That's how Japanese soldiers died for an emperor they never saw nor heard. Wake up.

Unfortunately you are still brainwashed by your indoctrination. You are merely regurgitating US propaganda on China, nothing new. I guess those wars in Vietnam and Iraq must be key to American wealth and respect? LOL I can definitely see the similarities between the Japanese and American soldiers of today.

tamsen_ikard · Oct 11, 2020

Hadoren said:
Okay, so there's a lot of nationalism in this thread which is leading to wishful thinking.

30,000 American troops are in Okinawa. Amphibious ready group Task Force 76 is in Okinawa. It takes one day to sail from Okinawa to Taiwan.

Thus, America can land troops onto Taiwan in one day. Here's a timeline:

In the morning, the troops in Okinawa get on Task Force 76 (something they've trained for their entire career).

In the evening, Task Force 76 is in Taiwan.

By the way, attacking Okinawa also brings Japan into the war.

That's why I said, Japan will not allow US to use Japanese soil to fight China. Whatever forces are in Japan will sit out this war. Chinese Flankers have 1500KM combat radius. Thus the entire first island Chain is dominated by 600 Chinese flankers. J-10 with drop tanks can also come and pose significant threat Near Chinese coast. Not to mention ground and Ship based Missiles which can start raining on Japan if they allow US to fight China from Japanese soil.

1200+ Chinese 4th Gen planes + 50 J-20 dominate the region.

Those US marines can be sunk into the Sea by China before they even get 50 miles. China will dominate the air space near Taiwan. If you dominate the air, you dominate ground and the sea in the modern age.

vincent · Oct 11, 2020

OppositeDay said:
To be honest, as a PRC citizen I really don't mind if Taiwan goes independent provided Taiwan cedes all its offshore islands and a large military port on Taiwan itself to us and declare permanent neutrality (no foreign military relations, no intelligence sharing, etc). I know this is sacrilegious to a lot of people, but we really have different identities now (for younger generations at least). I see Dilraba Dilmurat as being 'one of us' in a way that I just don't see Lin Chi-ling.

Ya, just like the Hegemon’s promise to Gorbachev that NATO will not expand to former Warshaw countries.

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Temstar

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BrightFuture

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tamsen_ikard

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vincent

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