I'm personally interested in the feasibility of a blockade on Taiwan. Seems like the less risky yet more elegant approach. Does this forum have any good discussions on that?
china/taiwan news
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AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
There's this assumption that if you're an ally of the US, your military is just as good because supposedly the US trained them just as much. Taiwan has a history of bumbling military incidents. The US want to take credit for that or is it the Taiwanese military? A lot of them have to do with US military hardware. Does the Taiwanese military just care about shiny new toys and not spend the money on soldiers overall well-being and training? Sounds like yes. I find it ironic that the Chinese that want to associate themselves with the West are more orthodox when it comes to culture. Yes soldiers traditionally were at the bottom.
I don't remember if we ever have a thread dedicated to Taiwan blockade. CMF and CDF used to have in depth discussion with ex-military professionals regarding blockade and the feasibility of long term blockade. Doubtful that those threads are still existed. You can take a look at the thread below as in the early day of SDF there are more discussion of this kind of topics.
Invasion of Kinmen and Matsu Islands
Now, while most people talk about the invasion of Taiwan, we tend to forget there are Taiwanese-held islands on the coast of China. Any invasion would have to factor in these islands. So, the question here is, can Taiwan effectively defend these islands were conflict to erupt? Now here's what...
www.sinodefenceforum.com
Blockade is declaration of war. You do it only if war is certain. Even at the height of Cuban missile crisis, which put nukes in Cuba ready to strike US, Kennedy did not even dare to mention that the US naval flotilla around Cuba is a blockade but a "quarantine".
I’m not sure why people consider blockade an actual option, blockade is unlikely to force Taiwan to reunify and it’ll simply give time for the Americans and its allies time to discuss and prepare a military response/confrontation while the Taiwanese churn out a river of sob stories. China is simply not a stage of naval build up where its navy alone could deter intervention.
The only response where there might be a favourable outcome would a lightning strike to seize the island with minimal collateral damage to present a fait accompli. If China could set up defences on the island itself then it would be an added advantage.
Word is an US amphibious assault ship have been spotted east of Taiwan today by satellite. I can't imagine it's very useful in aiding defence of Taiwan even if this LHA is carrying a handful of F-35B, and if it tries it would make excellent target practice for DF-21D.
So question is what's the story here. They're thinking of starting to evacuate Americans from Taiwan ala Saigon?
So question is what's the story here. They're thinking of starting to evacuate Americans from Taiwan ala Saigon?
supercat
Major
The U.S. has declassified the cables on the “Six Assurances” to Taiwan:
Good, it's far from a blank check for Taiwan independence.
Taiwan Relations Act:
U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (1982):
- Has not agreed to set a date for ending arms sales to Taiwan
- Has not agreed to consult with the PRC on arms sales to Taiwan
- Will not play a mediation role between Taipei and Beijing
- Has not agreed to revise the Taiwan Relations Act
- Has not altered its position regarding sovereignty over Taiwan.
- Will not exert pressure on Taiwan to enter into negotiations with the PRC.
Good, it's far from a blank check for Taiwan independence.
Taiwan Relations Act:
U.S.-PRC Joint Communique (1982):
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Every passing year, there is lesser hope for a peaceful unification. There is no coming back. If a forceful unification happens, it is very unlikely they will get a hong kong style government. Taiwan administration is just making more justification to retake the island. We just hope there is still chance of peace.
I don't believe there have ever been any real intentions or expectations of peaceful reunification with Taiwan on PRC's side. The CCP is ultimately a war time government/party, it would be suicide if it allows a government ran by parties that has literally put anti-communism on their party doctrine, to become a part of the same country. If the CCP has any foresight what-so-ever, it will understand that peaceful reunification will be poison to the entirety of China, it will destroy China from within.
Even one little Hong Kong, which have neither its own military nor a dominant military-political group (party), turned out to be such a problematic issue for China.
The core issue is globalism and one-country-two-systems. Globalism masked the fundamental flaw of the one-country-two-systems. Just like Abe Lincoln said: "A house divided against itself can not stand". China is either standing as a united whole, or in the process of achieving so.
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