China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
People have been throwing in drones and 5th gens to the conversation. There are dedicated production of those lines already. Those are running separate to considerations for upgrades of existing aircraft.

China is trying to make itself into more of a consumer economy. It can print money and manufacturer 99.9% of the common consumer goods that the people working and building conjectured BG upgrades would be consuming. All it needs to do is ensure there is adequate flows into the economy to balance the cost... which it can. This upgrade program is not an opportunity cost of production line, brainpower or top tier talent. Those are still directed at those other projects. China has an absolute abundance of talent even with braindrain. There is an abundance of underemployed talented people.

The economic question of how to support the program is honestly null. Those people can be previously underemployed or shifted such that underemployed people down the pole get a boost. Those people aren't being paid fortunes. They're just buying Chinese products with the CPC printed RMB. They're consuming mostly Chinese food and any additional imports they do consume is more than balanced by growing Chinese trade surplus.

It's not a question of time or money when those J-11Bs with 15+ years of airframe life are already made and sitting there.

It's only a question of internal accommodation and the complexity and cost of turning available space and constraints into objectives achieved (here defined as radar and/or datalinking upgrade and PL-15/16 compatibility).

Another factor to consider, if they have gone to the trouble of giving these airframes WS-10x engines, this is a considerably greater financial cost and opportunity cost when we know more than one UADF is using the WS-10 series. A pair of WS-10s is quite a generous commitment if we're keeping BG to slugging PL-12As for some "homeland" second tier defense role. Supposedly these >100 fighters wouldn't even participate in any potential war (since they can't do much if they're 4th maybe "4.2" gen with PL-12A). Then why go to any trouble upgrading them at all? If we don't have "overproduction" of WS-10, just scrap the B models already since they're not going to be frontline facing and if they get used in war, it signals PLAAF frontline losing bad enough to need them.

Alternatively, why not just stretch more and get them up to 4.5 gen with some AESA upgrade and PL-15/16 at least. You've given them a pair of new engines. The platform does justice to these missiles and is arguably one of two in the world that can be considered air superiority behemoths (F-15 being the other platform). We know it's possible to convert a tiny JF-17 block 1/2 to block 3 (AESA and PL-15) with available space and similarly constrained plumbing given the modernity of relative upgrades.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
I agree. Some people who are laughing at this may be proven wrong. We didn't see the potential for J-10 centre pylons supporting A2As until recently. Yes that was a display model with those centre pylons but that's pretty suggesting the real J-10 could potentially support more A2As as we assumed. Just because we haven't yet seen J-11BG with PL-15 could point more towards attempts at secrecy than it does at non-compatibility. J-11BG with PL-15 capability is an easily overlooked and underestimated strength. With those numbers it's arguably a greater threat than having an extra few squadrons of 5th gens when talking about peer to peer.

They are forgetting that the Flanker platform has one serious advantage. It gives tremendous kinematic justice to a better missile. It is an absent minded mistake to not upgrade J-11B -> J-11BG with PL-15/6 and PL-17 compatibility. Yes it's a cost calculation but we know B -> BG received engine and avionics upgrades. One thing discussed on the Chinese PLA watching side is the radar upgrade. If they are upgrading radar why would you not do a PL-15/16 compatibility upgrade.

Sometimes the academic guys here are too narrow minded and rigid on certain things so they will not entertain ideas that the strategists in PLA might genuinely have considered ie if J-11BG as an upgrade package for a fighter platform with up to 20 years of airframe life left is performed, what should be included in said upgrade? The conclusion is very obviously going to be PL-15/16 and maybe even PL-17 compatibility. PL-17 is questionable but would be quite a nice to have.

As you said, even JF-17 block 3 was upgraded to PL-15 compatibility. Therefore it isn't hard to that expensive to do. JF-17 block 2 to 3 leap isn't as time significant as J-11B to J-11BG leap. It's also giving no kinematic advantage to the PL-15 missile unlike the Flanker which will give it significantly more altitude potential and speed compared to a puny JF-17.

The diminishing returns for investment when doing this for block 3 is a low threshold. The payoff for doing the same (similar cost) to the J-11BG is so much greater and arguably more important/useful.

If suppose J-11BG is indeed PL-15/16 compatible with modern datalinking included, it does become a J-16-lite because it would be the only other PLAAF flanker that can carry PL-15. Forget the homeland defense idea. These are frontline fighters. You've picked up 200 J-16 lites to supplement your force. No one here thinks PLAAF is a big enough force to comfortably face off against US and Japan. PLAAF needs all the 4.5 gen fighters it can muster.

The problem is that you are thinking about things in a manner which is "optimal" in terms of "maximizing capability for each given platform".

The PLA has shown a willingness to keep obsolescent capabilities in service past its due date (see late model J-7 retirements) for low end missions for the sake of cost mitigation.
If we combine that with the prior rumours that J-11BG is said to be a much less ambitious upgrade than J-16/J-10C level, and combine that with how we haven't seen any J-11BG carry PL-15 yet despite being in service for multiple years now, then we are obliged to entertain the possibility that J-11BG does not have the capability to carry/accommodate PL-15/16.


Let me be crystal clear in what I am saying:
A) It is possible J-11BG is able to accommodate PL-15/16 but we just happen to have yet to see it
B) It is possible J-11BG is not able to accommodate PL-15/16, and that is the reason we have yet to see it and will not see it

Both A) and B) are equally viable at this moment in time, and there is no argument you can make which allows us to treat option B) as somehow implausible or invalid, so just stop trying.


Therefore, whenever we talk about J-11BG, we are obliged to consider the possibility that it may not be able to accommodate PL-15/16, as much as it may be possible to accommodate it.
 

Gloire_bb

Major
Registered Member
We’ve seen PL-15 first on plain J-11B when it was under testing, so it is not a stretch to say that it can be integrated to BG. Whether it is the most economical way to utilize a world class AAM is up to debate, especially considering the fact that we regularly see PLAAF J-10C mixing PL-15 and PL-12.
I don't think it's up to much debate whether it's worth it in principle: PL-15 is literally a consequetive step after PL-12 on production lines, produced for over 10 years at this point. It's unlikely PL-12 is even procured beyond export anymore(though it can - who knows?)

PL-12 and PL-15 are just stock compatibility, nothing more or less; US aircraft are also occasionally seen with 1990s AIM-120s, not just latest and greatest.
Yes, it absolutely does make sense to introduce PL-15, even in ersatz, unless digital fcs of J-11B(g) is somehow insufferable. Which is almost impossible.

We just don't have a way to verify, and of course never say never with military. Things can go weird there.
Like I have a personal favorite example with Russian naval Su-30MKIs early in Ukraine war. Which were never seen with R-77-1 because ... they required more secure storage facilities (bureaucratic requirement) compared to old stocks, and improved facilities costed (some) money. Which weren't spent.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I don't think it's up to much debate whether it's worth it in principle: PL-15 is literally a consequetive step after PL-12 on production lines, produced for over 10 years at this point. It's unlikely PL-12 is even procured beyond export anymore(though it can - who knows?)

PL-12 and PL-15 are just stock compatibility, nothing more or less; US aircraft are also occasionally seen with 1990s AIM-120s, not just latest and greatest.
Yes, it absolutely does make sense to introduce PL-15, even in ersatz, unless digital fcs of J-11B(g) is somehow insufferable. Which is almost impossible.

We just don't have a way to verify, and of course never say never with military. Things can go weird there.
Like I have a personal favorite example with Russian naval Su-30MKIs early in Ukraine war. Which were never seen with R-77-1 because ... they required more secure storage facilities (bureaucratic requirement) compared to old stocks, and improved facilities costed (some) money. Which weren't spent.

On a practical level, we see the AIM-9 with a service life of up to 20 years, whilst aircraft last longer.

So every manufacturer of fighter aircraft should be expecting to use newer AAMs.

And the designers of the PL-15 should be expecting a time when all the PL-12s have expired, forcing a change to the PL-15 or the newer PL-16.
 
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plawolf

Lieutenant General
One thing to note is that missiles are not milk. After missiles reach and surpass their use by date, they don’t just immediately all become useless. Instead what happens is that failure rates creep up with time, and the use by dates are set to ensure the failure rate at that point still meets minute operational requirements. So you can still use the missiles after they have pass their expiry so long as you are prepared to accept a higher failure rate.

Additionally, the service life of missiles can be extended with refurbishment programmes. The key question is whether to do so is cost effective.

Point is the PL12 (and PL15 etc) could stay around for potentially much longer than people expect. The key to deciding whether or not to retire them will depend on many factors. Expiry date is one factor, buts it’s not a hard cap and can be extended or even ignore to some extend should other relevant factors justify it.
 

Blitzo

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
We’ve seen PL-15 first on plain J-11B when it was under testing, so it is not a stretch to say that it can be integrated to BG. Whether it is the most economical way to utilize a world class AAM is up to debate, especially considering the fact that we regularly see PLAAF J-10C mixing PL-15 and PL-12.

I don't think anyone debates or contests the idea that J-11B/BG is unable to physically carry PL-15.

The question is only about whether it is reasonable for us to consider that it is possible that J-11BG is not integrated/compatible with PL-15, which is a reflection of the aircraft's relevant avionics and mission systems.


The fact that we know J-11B can physically carry PL-15, should be viewed as completely irrelevant to the topic imo, if anything it ends up muddying the waters.
 

Neurosmith

Junior Member
Registered Member
I don't think anyone debates or contests the idea that J-11B/BG is unable to physically carry PL-15.

The question is only about whether it is reasonable for us to consider that it is possible that J-11BG is not integrated/compatible with PL-15, which is a reflection of the aircraft's relevant avionics and mission systems.


The fact that we know J-11B can physically carry PL-15, should be viewed as completely irrelevant to the topic imo, if anything it ends up muddying the waters.
The J-11BG can carry the PL-10, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect the PL-15 to be integrated with the same upgrade package. Given that the entire upgrade program seems to be focused on extending its BVR capabilities - with the AESA and whatnot - I can't see a reason why they would forgo the only missile capable of realizing that updated BVR capability.
 

siegecrossbow

Field Marshall
Staff member
Super Moderator
I don't think anyone debates or contests the idea that J-11B/BG is unable to physically carry PL-15.

The question is only about whether it is reasonable for us to consider that it is possible that J-11BG is not integrated/compatible with PL-15, which is a reflection of the aircraft's relevant avionics and mission systems.


The fact that we know J-11B can physically carry PL-15, should be viewed as completely irrelevant to the topic imo, if anything it ends up muddying the waters.

If we use visual evidence then no, since we’ve literally never seen any BG carrying PL-15.
 
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