China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)

[Tomboy]

The americans are upgrading old F-15, F-16 and F-18 with AESA, new electronics and weapons, China not doing same with the newer J-11B and J-10A would be criminal negligence to say the least. Some months back we were going back and forth about J-15 not having PL-15 until PLANAF indulged us. PL-15 is even available on JF-17 so why not on J-11BG? A J-11BG with J-16 AESA and electronics, or perhaps more likely derived from those on J-11D, would actually be a bit better air to air kinematically because it's probably a bit lighter and less draggy.

US is doing it because they lack production capability to quickly replace these old aircraft. PLAAF has shown that it is not willing to upgrade J-10As and instead just retiring them to training units once their time is up.

J-11BG from most sources is claimed to be a minor upgrade (technically speaking there isn't even definitive proof to say it has AESA), some even claim it might just be a antenna upgrade to replace the worn-out slotted planar array. Upgrading J-11Bs to J-16 or even J-11D standards will be impossible without major overhaul of the entire electronics system which is likely going to be very expensive.

 

[Blitzo]

The americans are upgrading old F-15, F-16 and F-18 with AESA, new electronics and weapons, China not doing same with the newer J-11B and J-10A would be criminal negligence to say the least. Some months back we were going back and forth about J-15 not having PL-15 until PLANAF indulged us. PL-15 is even available on JF-17 so why not on J-11BG? A J-11BG with J-16 AESA and electronics, or perhaps more likely derived from those on J-11D, would actually be a bit better air to air kinematically because it's probably a bit lighter and less draggy.

There's no need to be so dramatic.

The reason why the discussion of PL-15 on J-11BG is an active viable debate is a few reasons:
- J-11BG has been around for quite a few years longer than J-15T, yet we have not seen it with PL-15 all this time
- J-11BG has been actively described as a less comprehensive upgrade relative to something like J-16 in the past


What people "want" or "desire" is inconsequential.
The fact of the matter is we are obliged to treat "does J-11BG have PL-15 capability" as a matter of active contention at present due to what scant evidence (or lack thereof) and rumours we have.

 

[tphuang]

The americans are upgrading old F-15, F-16 and F-18 with AESA, new electronics and weapons, China not doing same with the newer J-11B and J-10A would be criminal negligence to say the least. Some months back we were going back and forth about J-15 not having PL-15 until PLANAF indulged us. PL-15 is even available on JF-17 so why not on J-11BG? A J-11BG with J-16 AESA and electronics, or perhaps more likely derived from those on J-11D, would actually be a bit better air to air kinematically because it's probably a bit lighter and less draggy.

Well, given the speed at which China is introducing new aircraft into service, it actually does beg the question of how long you'd want to keep J-11B in service. The first of which entered service back in last 2000s & early 2010s iirc. It's pretty common for PLAAF aircraft to retire after 20 years. Also currently, PLAAF pilots get more flight hours than USAF ones, so it's entirely likely J-11Bs have gotten quite a bit of mileage on them already.

Their retirements could start at end of this decade. As such, I wouldn't say it's criminal negligence if some units never get upgraded. In fact, it's kind of silly to say J-11BG with J-16 AESA and electronics. Given that J-16 has an entirely redesigned interior (plumbing as I call it) to support the higher voltage and higher power/cooling needed for its upgrade, it would be quite hard to get J-11B's airframe to handle the same upgrade.

So no, J-11BG could never be as powerful as J-16.

In modern combat, EW suite and missiles are often the deciding factor (see op Sindoor). So, PLAAF probably did the best it could with existing plumbing on J-11B and that's it.

 

[Maikeru]

People on this thread seem to dismiss PL12 as incapable. In fact, especially in its later variants, it is comparable to AMRAAM-C5 or maybe 7, which still sell strongly. J-11BG with PL-12A can certainly fulfill a 'home defence' mission shooting down TLAMs and the odd balloon.

 

[Blitzo]

People on this thread seem to dismiss PL12 as incapable. In fact, especially in its later variants, it is comparable to AMRAAM-C5 or maybe 7, which still sell strongly. J-11BG with PL-12A can certainly fulfill a 'home defence' mission shooting down TLAMs and the odd balloon.

I'm not sure if it is a reflection of people dismissing PL-12 variants, so much as thinking it should be expected/obvious that J-11BG should have the same sort of A2A suite as a J-16 or J-10C.

 

[Deino]

Interesting comparison of a Su-30MK2 (top) vs. a J-11BSH (bottom).

 

[mack8]

Well, given the speed at which China is introducing new aircraft into service, it actually does beg the question of how long you'd want to keep J-11B in service. The first of which entered service back in last 2000s & early 2010s iirc. It's pretty common for PLAAF aircraft to retire after 20 years. Also currently, PLAAF pilots get more flight hours than USAF ones, so it's entirely likely J-11Bs have gotten quite a bit of mileage on them already.

Their retirements could start at end of this decade. As such, I wouldn't say it's criminal negligence if some units never get upgraded. In fact, it's kind of silly to say J-11BG with J-16 AESA and electronics. Given that J-16 has an entirely redesigned interior (plumbing as I call it) to support the higher voltage and higher power/cooling needed for its upgrade, it would be quite hard to get J-11B's airframe to handle the same upgrade.

So no, J-11BG could never be as powerful as J-16.

In modern combat, EW suite and missiles are often the deciding factor (see op Sindoor). So, PLAAF probably did the best it could with existing plumbing on J-11B and that's it.

Usually when it comes to upgrades the most recent and lowest hour airframes are prioritized, so on this issue i agree than the earliest J-11B/J-10As might not worth upgrading, but as the others would be around 15 years old or even less it would be worthwhile, maybe half to 2/3rd of the total fleets. There are fixes to go around the issue of more limited power such as tailored AESAs that might offer say 80% the capability of a full spec variant, this has been done with other aircraft through the world.

Anyway the main factor which imo argues for the upgrades i mention is the fact that PLAAF is still on the road to fully match the US numerically and capability wise, and preferably exceed. I mean PLAAF still operates J-8 and J-7s, in second line/training units yes, but in a conflict one would expect they would be pressed into action if necessary. Retiring aircraft after 20 years when airframe life evolved to allow service for much longer periods than that is also a luxury China cannot afford yet, it would be wasteful imo, especially for still relevant 4+ gen airframes.

And as to Sindoor, this again proves the need for PL-15, in many cases such missiles can be added to the WCS by relatively simple software updates so even if say current J-11B/J-10A could not fully exploit the PL-15 long range due do less capable (referring to unupgraded ones) radar, in the era of cooperative targeting this could be mitigated by third party targeting/guidance. As with the J-15/PL-15 situation, i would be surprised if PLAAF was shortsighted enough not to integrate PL-15 on every platform that could reasonably use it, so maybe we'll get to see it on the likes of J-11B models soon.

 

[AndrewS]

US is doing it because they lack production capability to quickly replace these old aircraft. PLAAF has shown that it is not willing to upgrade J-10As and instead just retiring them to training units once their time is up.

J-11BG from most sources is claimed to be a minor upgrade (technically speaking there isn't even definitive proof to say it has AESA), some even claim it might just be a antenna upgrade to replace the worn-out slotted planar array. Upgrading J-11Bs to J-16 or even J-11D standards will be impossible without major overhaul of the entire electronics system which is likely going to be very expensive.

I think the J-10A being retired is likely due:

1. Changing doctrine. The Chinese Air Force is moving from homeland defence to power projection. As such, a larger twin-engine aircraft is preferred.
2. The cost of modernising a J-10A and J-11B is going to be pretty similar, assuming the same avionics capabilities are required. Yet the J-10 is a lot less useful because it does have a lot less range and also payload to carry AAMs or Bombs.
3. There are already ~400 J-10C that can cover homeland defence and nearby contingencies (eg. Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea)

 

[tphuang]

Usually when it comes to upgrades the most recent and lowest hour airframes are prioritized, so on this issue i agree than the earliest J-11B/J-10As might not worth upgrading, but as the others would be around 15 years old or even less it would be worthwhile, maybe half to 2/3rd of the total fleets. There are fixes to go around the issue of more limited power such as tailored AESAs that might offer say 80% the capability of a full spec variant, this has been done with other aircraft through the world.

Anyway the main factor which imo argues for the upgrades i mention is the fact that PLAAF is still on the road to fully match the US numerically and capability wise, and preferably exceed. I mean PLAAF still operates J-8 and J-7s, in second line/training units yes, but in a conflict one would expect they would be pressed into action if necessary. Retiring aircraft after 20 years when airframe life evolved to allow service for much longer periods than that is also a luxury China cannot afford yet, it would be wasteful imo, especially for still relevant 4+ gen airframes.

And as to Sindoor, this again proves the need for PL-15, in many cases such missiles can be added to the WCS by relatively simple software updates so even if say current J-11B/J-10A could not fully exploit the PL-15 long range due do less capable (referring to unupgraded ones) radar, in the era of cooperative targeting this could be mitigated by third party targeting/guidance. As with the J-15/PL-15 situation, i would be surprised if PLAAF was shortsighted enough not to integrate PL-15 on every platform that could reasonably use it, so maybe we'll get to see it on the likes of J-11B models soon.

I don't think they operate J-7/8s anymore. I'm not against making J-11B more competitive and such. I'm just pointing out we need to be realistic on how good it can get upgraded to. I don't like to use figures like 80%. What does that even mean?

The difference between J-16 and J-11B in plumbing probably means J-11B has as good shot of bringing down a J-16 as JF-17 bringing down a J-16. The generational gap in electronics is just so huge these days.


J-16 would probably eat most F-15s for lunch easily.

 

[AndrewS]

Well, given the speed at which China is introducing new aircraft into service, it actually does beg the question of how long you'd want to keep J-11B in service. The first of which entered service back in last 2000s & early 2010s iirc. It's pretty common for PLAAF aircraft to retire after 20 years. Also currently, PLAAF pilots get more flight hours than USAF ones, so it's entirely likely J-11Bs have gotten quite a bit of mileage on them already.

Their retirements could start at end of this decade. As such, I wouldn't say it's criminal negligence if some units never get upgraded. In fact, it's kind of silly to say J-11BG with J-16 AESA and electronics. Given that J-16 has an entirely redesigned interior (plumbing as I call it) to support the higher voltage and higher power/cooling needed for its upgrade, it would be quite hard to get J-11B's airframe to handle the same upgrade.

So no, J-11BG could never be as powerful as J-16.

In modern combat, EW suite and missiles are often the deciding factor (see op Sindoor). So, PLAAF probably did the best it could with existing plumbing on J-11B and that's it.

It makes sense to retire at least some of the J-11B units, and transfer those planes to existing units.
These become additional reserve/attrition aircraft, which would likely get used if there is a long conflict.