In a few years the Flanker production will likely stop when the J-35 comes into production. In the meantime there are still a lot of J-7's, J-8's and JH-7's that need to be replaced. Even the J-11A's, J-10A's, SU27SK's and the SU-30MKK's need to be replaced. So they can keep producing J-16 and J-16D's in the coming years until J-35 production starts.
China Flanker Thread III (land based, exclude J-15)
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
I think it depends on how many J-16s the PLAAF really need, as well as whether J-35 will be deemed a suitable successor to heavy fighter/bombers like Su-30 and JH7A. In my opinion, J-35 will likely replace all J7 units, some J8 units and some J-11 units. J-16 will replace the Su-30s, JH7 units and the remainder of the J8 and J11 units.
I think the need for a non-stealthy heavy twin engine multirole fighter won't be gone for quite a long time.
antiterror13
Brigadier
Have you looked at how many brigades of older planes there are? At the current pace of replacement, those aircraft will be gone in a couple of years.
>2680 T/R modules. Which would easily make it the AESA radar with the most known T/R modules in the world.
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These are the best numbers I can find. Most likely inaccurate if you have better numbers please share.
SU-30MKK (97)
J-10A (240)
J-11A (104)
SU-27SK (32)
JH-7 (270)
J-8 (122)
J-7 (340)
Total (1205)
scramble is what I use
Looks like they have a couple of J-8FR brigades, but no real J-8 brigades anymore.
For J-7s, if we ignore the ones listed in there for flight academy and withdrawn from use or stated to be accepting new units, we are down to
44th, 88th, 97th, 63rd, 86th, 57th, 20th, 53rd, 52nd, 132nd, 71st, 21st -> 12 brigades
My guess is that the real number is less than this, since there are a couple of J-20/J-16/J-10C brigades which haven't been revealed yet. My guess is about 300 left.
JH-7s seem to be gone and we are left with 5 JH-7A brigades in PLAAF and 3 in PLAN, so about 240?
but my point is that they are adding 150 aircraft a year at least right now and that pace is probably going to go up over the course of this decade. They are going to be able to replace all the J-7 and su-27SK, + a good chunk of J-11A/su-30mkk/JH-7A in 5 years. At which point, you are probably ready to mass produce J-35. There aren't that many older aircraft to get rid of.
I don't see it being worthwhile to ramp up Flanker airframe capacity from current levels.
If they're producing 50 per year, I reckon that would be sufficient to cover requirements for naval J-15s, SEAD J-16D and some J-16 additions every year.
And I don't see any rush to replace the JH-7A as these operate as bomb/missile trucks and the aircraft are all less than 20 years old
I think once all the J-7's and the J-8's are all decommissioned the PLAAF should slowdown in its fighter procurement at least the Flankers. And focus more on stockpiling air to air missile's, PGM's and invest in more advanced jamming pods, targeting pods and HMS. Those things are just as important as the planes itself. That is the lesson from the war in Ukraine. And maybe more resources should go to the ground forces which in my view has been neglected in the modernization drive. Which mainly focusses on the air force and navy.