China Flanker Thread II
- Thread starter sumdud
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Those are probably pretty low numbers, just to upkeep the number of conversion training planes. Perhaps they even concluded it's cheaper for them to make/use J11BS instead of J16 for training roles.
Still, it may be that the J11BS are produced on top of the J16s, instead of J16 production seeing a slight dip. Surely with J15 batch 3 going on as well, overall flanker production is likely to be the highest it's ever been. Possibly reaching 30 airframes a year?
Still, it may be that the J11BS are produced on top of the J16s, instead of J16 production seeing a slight dip. Surely with J15 batch 3 going on as well, overall flanker production is likely to be the highest it's ever been. Possibly reaching 30 airframes a year?
I believe the recent production numbers of flankers were about 40-50 a year. One batch of J-16 a year.
No, ... IMO surely not!
That does not fit to the number of re-equipped units per year.
Continued...
So how many do you estimate?
I have no fixed clue, but my estimation is not even half that number.
I just checked the cn. blocks for the highest number known and when the first of a new Block appeared:
Block - first seen - highest no. known
01 - 08.2015 - 01.22
02 - 11.2016 - 02.22
03 - 03.2018 - 03.28
04 - 09.2018 - 04.22
05 - 06.2019 - 05.20
... and added the number of units known so far. Therefore we have IMO two different estimations:
1. the fist one based on assuming production started in mid-2015 (July?) and the highest number spotted in January was 0520 and the assumption, that the size of a batch is not dramatically larger than the highest number known (would result in a low end rate):
= 114 J-16s within 55 months = 2.07 J-16s per month or 24.8 per year.
2 The second way would follow the units known and even more assuming - IMO already too many assumptions
- that from the 176. and 172. are not at full strength (maybe 6-8 of 4 confirmed) and the 7., 40, 98. and 3. Brigades are at full strength (aka 24-28 aircraft); ... (that would result in a slightly different estimation):= 102 (2*6 + 2*24) to 120 J-16s again within the same time and as such 1.85-2.18 J-16s per month or 22.2-26.2 per year.
In summary a rate of 2 J-16s per month and as such 24 per years is my best guess!
Now the same should be done for the J-10B/C and J-11 ... and J-20 and so on, but for the moment I have too many other things to do.
Deino
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